It is, apparently, Groundhog Day. The groundhog saw his shadow, which allegedly means we get 6 more weeks of winter! In related news, it’s 81 degrees where I live today.
Anyway, basketball isn’t really worth playing tonight, but, luckily, we have a nice 10-game NHL DFS slate to play instead. Prize pools are generally garbage, but we can’t always get what we want. 10 games is #a #lot, so I’ll do my best to narrow it down to the stacks and plays I’d like to prioritize.
Let’s dive in.
Chalk Stacks
- CHI1/PP1 (Bedard/Bertuzzi/Nazar/Rinzel)
- COL1 (MacKinnon/Lehkonen/Nichushkin)
- UTA1 (Schmaltz/Keller/Crouse/Guenther)
- FLA2 (Bennett/Tkachuk/Verhaeghe)
It’s a big slate, so ownership shouldn’t be a huge factor. As of now, it looks like these are the teams likely to be the most popular to stack. Not only does Chicago get a nice matchup at home against a middling Sharks defense, but DK also dropped the ball on the pricing here. We’re getting a $7,700 Connor Bedard, which looks like a #mistake. He doesn’t project quite as well as the MacKinnon/Matthews/Kaprizov/Celebrini tier of star forwards, but he also shouldn’t be $2,000 cheaper than these guys.
The Bedard/Bertuzzi/Nazar line hasn’t been much better than average in terms of production, but $16,000 for a top line makes them one of the most affordable on the board. They’re also fully correlated on the power play. The Blackhawks fired Artyom Levshunov into the sun ahead of the Olympic break, which means the $2,600 Sam Rinzel is now running the top PP unit. This will be a popular 4-man stack, and it’s difficult not to like, even into ownership, given the salaries.
The Avs are on the slate, so people will play them. There’s nothing eye-popping about the matchup against Detroit, especially assuming the Wings start John Gibson in net. The top defensive line with Seider in it has been pretty shutdown, so I don’t love it. Martin Necas is out, though, which makes the COL1 line of MacKinnon/Lehkonen/Nichushkin a lot easier to stack from a salary standpoint. That trio is also north of 4.6 xG per 60 in a smallish sample. The absence of Necas also just makes it easier to jam Cale Makar in with them. This is another top line fully correlated on PP1. Colorado has also been a lot more productive offensively with Devon Toews in there next to Makar instead of Sam Malinski.
The Mammoth get the cake matchup against the Canucks that we pick on every night. It also looks like Kevin Lankinen is projected to start in goal over Nikita Tolopilo, which is good for Utah. Vancouver doesn’t commit an egregious amount of penalties, they’ve just been extremely porous at even strength. The Schmaltz/Keller/Crouse line looks to be the most popular, and you can pretty easily add Dylan Guenther on top of it if you want the bigger stack. That said, I do like both UTA2 and 3. The third line (McBain/Carcone/Guenther) has contributed 4.69 xG per 60, which is quite glorious. The third line is also $3,000 cheaper on aggregate than the first line, though it’s not like that first line is pricey to begin with.
This season is on life support for the two-time reigning champs. FLA2 looks somewhat popular here in a decent spot against the Sabres. The issue with the Panthers is the minutes for the main guys have been incredibly erratic. Maybe Matthew Tkachuk plays 24 minutes in a must-win game. Maybe he plays 14. Who the fuck knows? I don’t mind the matchup or anything, it’s just not a team I’d be excited to roster into ownership given the circumstances.
Stacks I Like? I Don’t Know What To Call This Section
- NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Stamkos)
- BUF PP1 (Thompson/Zucker/Quinn/Doan/Dahlin)
- SJ1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Smith)
- MIN1 (Hartman/Kaprizov/Zuccarello)
- MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson)
- MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Dach)
- CGY3 (Frost/Huberdeau/Gridin/Parekh)
- WSH1 or 2
I don’t think the Wild will be as popular as the Avs, though they get the better draw here against the penalty-happy Habs. Just 3 teams in the league are playing more shorthanded minutes than Montreal. Minnesota is pretty healthy and expensive as a result, but it’s a potentially explosive spot. You’re paying out the ass to play MIN1 + Quinn Hughes, but there’s enough upside to try it. It’s even more expensive to try and stack the PP1, but it’s easy to envision Minnesota breaking the slate at low ownership.
Buffalo continues to chug along. Florida’s top line is tough defensively, but this is another team committing a lot of penalties, and Sergei Bobrovsky sucks. I like any combination of the BUF PP1 guys listed above.
You can look to the Montreal side, as well. Minnesota’s penalty kill sucks for some reason. MTL1 with Dach instead of Texier hasn’t been as productive, but Dach’s cheap salary keeps him playable in a stack. Just 2-manning it with Suzuki/Caufield is fine. You can also add some of the other PP1 guys (Slafkovsky/Demidov/Hutson) if you really want to take advantage of potential power play opportunities.
NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Stamkos) gets a little cumbersome from a salary standpoint if you add Roman Josi to the mix, but the Nashville top line has produced well regardless of whether it’s been Stamkos or Evangelista. St. Louis has been weirdly okay defensively, I just think this line is on the “stack every night” list.
SJ1 looks appealing on the other side of the CHI chalk. The Blackhawks’ penalty kill has been pretty stingy, but San Jose’s PP unit has been much better without John Klingberg on it. Klingberg won’t play tonight, so there are some opportunities here for a talented top line that also happens to be fully correlated on PP1. Dmitry Orlov is a $3,300 defenseman running the PP unit in Klingberg’s spot.
Calgary gets a nice matchup at home against the god-ass-awful Maple Leafs. Calgary isn’t particularly good offensively, either, but they will get uber-prospect Zayne Parekh back into the lineup here at $2,500. Parekh will likely be on PP2 and CGY3 with the Frost/Huberdeau/Gridin trio. That’s been the most productive forward line of any of the Flames’ current lines, and you can get the 4-man at extremely cheap salaries. Keep in mind the Flames are apparently involved in trade rumors so we could have some late scratches here in a late game. Keep an eye on beat writers beforehand to get confirmation on lines.
The Washington top 2 lines are fine.
Defensemen
As mentioned, Sam Rinzel is mega-chalk here running the Blackhawks’ PP1 in a nice matchup against San Jose. He’s $2,600 and saw 22 minutes of ice time in this role the other night. Feels like something close to a free square, though this will also be the chalkiest individual player on the entire slate.
Zayne Parekh hasn’t done much at the NHL level, but I like the matchup, and this is one of the best prospects in the sport pulling no ownership for $100 cheaper than Rinzel.
Paying up for Cale Makar, Roman Josi, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Jake Chychrun, and Mikhail Sergachev is totally fine. Hughes and Dahlin look like the lowest-owned of that group. I have the least interest in Makar in this tougher matchup for Colorado. I don’t mind Lane Hutson in those MTL PP stacks.
I mentioned Dmitry Orlov being a viable cheapie running the SJ PP1. I don’t think playing Brady Skjei is a bad play even next to Josi in some bigger NSH stacks. John Carlson, Tony DeAngelo, and Filip Hronek are solid.
Goalie
Karel Vejmelka and Linus Ullmark should both pull some ownership. With the CHI chalk, the leverage play is clearly Yaroslav Askarov for San Jose. I also don’t think you’re crazy to play John Gibson, a legitimately good goalie facing a high-volume Colorado team likely to be popular. Spencer Knight and Alex Lyon are on my radar, too.
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