It is Thursday and I am watching college basketball just like the rest of you. Siena, huh?
Anyway, enough of that. We’ve also got an 11-game NHL DFS slate to get through. Last night was a bloodbath for me – thanks in no small part to the Anaheim Ducks – but today is a new day. And let’s make it a profitable one.
Tonight’s 11-Game Slate Overview
| Game | Proj Goals (Away/Home) | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| MTL @ DET | 3.2 / 3.2 | 4:00 PM |
| NYR @ CBJ | 2.6 / 3.7 | 4:00 PM |
| WPG @ BOS | 2.8 / 3.2 | 4:00 PM |
| NYI @ OTT | 2.9 / 3.2 | 4:00 PM |
| CHI @ MIN | 2.6 / 3.7 | 4:30 PM |
| SEA @ NSH | 2.9 / 3.2 | 5:00 PM |
| FLA @ EDM | 3.1 / 3.4 | 6:00 PM |
| UTA @ VGK | 2.9 / 3.1 | 7:00 PM |
| TBL @ VAN | 4.1 / 2.4 | 7:00 PM |
| BUF @ SJS | 3.7 / 3.3 | 7:00 PM |
| PHI @ LAK | 2.6 / 3.3 | 7:30 PM |
TBL is the single highest-projected offense on the slate at 4.1. The Lightning are in Vancouver, so you know what that means.
NHL DFS Stacking Strategy (How It Works)
If you’re new to NHL DFS, the stacking rules are different from basketball. Here’s what you need to know.
Why do we stack in hockey? Goals are correlated. When a line scores, they’re usually all on the ice together – the center, both wings, and sometimes a defenseman who jumps into the rush. That means if one guy on the line scores, the others often pick up an assist. If you have them all in your lineup, that single goal event produces multiple scoring plays for your roster.
The two most common NHL stack structures are:
4/3/1 — The bread-and-butter structure. Four players from one team (typically a full line of center + two wings, plus a defenseman or a second-line center), three players from a second team (usually a full line), and one player from a third game for salary flexibility and differentiation. This is the most common winning structure in cash games and GPPs.
3/3 — The two-stack build. Three from one team, three from another – typically mirroring two strong games against each other. This works especially well in shootout-style matchups where you want exposure to both sides of a game total. It’s a little less correlated than 4/3/1 but gives you clean exposure to two games.
One critical goalie rule that trips up beginners: Your goalie does NOT stack with his own skaters. This is the opposite of what feels intuitive. A shutout or blowout win is great for your goalie, but terrible for the team you stacked against him. Pair your goalie with a team that’s expected to win, and build your skater stacks from the offense you want to ride. You can also get direct leverage by playing goalies against popular stacks. Goalies facing high-octane offenses – like EDM – have a wide range of outcomes. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to rack up saves, which helps to offset the damage of conceding 3-4 goals.
Top NHL DFS Plays
These are the spots I’m targeting tonight.
NHL DFS Lines
- TB1 (Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel)
- TB2 (Point/Guentzel/Goncalves)
- VGK PP1 (Eichel/Stone/Marner/Dorofeyev/Hertl)
- MIN1 (Yurov/Kaprizov/Boldy)
- MIN2 (Hartman/Zuccarello/Tarasenko)
- CBJ1 (Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment)
- SJ PP1 (Celebrini/Toffoli/Wennberg)
- EDM PP1 (McDavid/Nugent-Hopkins/Podkolzin/Bouchard)
- MTL1 (Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky)
- DET1 (Compher/DeBrincat/Kane)
The Lightning are the top overall stack on the slate, but they’re not getting much ownership despite the matchup against the Canucks. Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel has been one of the best lines in the sport all season, so I’d like to find the $21,500 for the top line if I can. L2 is a little less compelling as they’ve only averaged 2.01 xG/60, but you’re obviously saving salary with them.
Looks like the chalkiest stack on the board is Columbus against a Rangers team on the second half of a B2B. The Fantilli/Marchenko/Marchment line has been pretty average, and it’s not the best on-paper matchup, either. The line is popping because it’s $16.000, fully correlated on the power play, and it’s easy to add Zach Werenski as a 4th as a result. It’s…fine? It’s worth noting CBJ2 (Monahan/Johnson/Garland) has been excellent (4.25 xG/60) in about 60 minutes of action. That line is only $10,400 and nobody’s playing them.
I kinda like a Vegas onslaught. They’re a little inexpensive relative to where they normally are. Edmonton is Edmonton, but the absence of Draisaitl does water them down. Looks like they’re low-owned, so viable.
Minnesota was mid against Chicago the other night, but they’ll have a chance at redemption here. This Chicago defense is still putrid, especially now that they’ve lost Jason Dickinson. I’ll go back to the well yet again. Quinn Hughes is down to $6,500 – which is silly. Yurov should center the top line next to Kaprizov and Boldy again with Hartman up to L2 in place of Eriksson Ek. Yurov/Kaprizov/Boldy is just an awesome line, and Yurov’s cheap salary makes it easy to jam Hughes in there.
DET chalk came through in a big way the other night, and this game against Montreal has some potential for fireworks. Compher/DeBrincat/Kane won’t be as popular as it was a couple of nights ago, while you can always justify love for MTL1.
Both sides of BUF/SJ are explosive against exploitable defenses and netminders. Buffalo is prone to penalties, so some combination of the San Jose power play looks good. BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Benson) is high-upside, but you can always look to the highly-productive power play, too.
Defensemen
- Quinn Hughes ($6,500)
- Charlie McAvoy ($5,400)
- Evan Bouchard ($7,500)
- Zach Werenski ($8,000)
- Damon Severson ($2,900)
- Adam Boqvist ($2,500)
- Shea Theodore ($3,500)
- Thomas Chabot ($5,500)
- Artyom Levshunov ($3,000)
The pay-ups all look good, I’m just having a hard time ignoring Hughes at his price point in one of the best matchups on the board.
Goalie
- Ilya Sorokin ($7,200)
- Andrei Vasilevsky ($8,500)
- Joey Daccord ($7,600)
Looks like Sorokin is the chalk thanks to his cheap $7,200 salary. That’s cheap, and he’s been awesome this season. New York yields lots of high-danger chances, so generally plenty of save opportunities for him. Vasilevsky is quite a bit more expensive ($8,500) in a nice matchup against Vancouver. Daccord is $7,600 against Nashville, which, okay.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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