Today’s a sad day, as this will be the final NHL slate for like 3 weeks as the league takes time off for the Winter Olympics. Better make the most of it, right? Pretty good little 7-gamer on tap, and lots of ways to go.
Chalk Stacks
- BUF1 (Thompson/Tuch/Krebs)
- TB PP (Guentzel/Kucherov/Bjorkstrand)
- NJ1 / NJ2
- WSH1 / WSH2
The slate is going to revolve around Buffalo and Tampa Bay. BUF1 just keeps showing up in good spots, and PIT is still giving up plenty of chances despite some better efforts from Silovs/Skinner lately. Buffalo is playing with confidence. This top line with Krebs on it is up to 2.95 xG per 60 in a still-very-tiny sample. Krebs isn’t particularly good, but he’s also $2,700.
Tampa is the other obvious chalk route. Florida takes tons of penalties, and the TB top line is one of the most dangerous units in the league. The field is probably going to try to cut salary by using Bjorkstrand over Hagel, and it makes sense. You’re plunging like $25,000 salary into Kucherov/Hagel/Guentzel with Cirelli out, plus Raddysh is a $6,700 defender highly correlated with this team finding a ceiling. Bjorkstrand at least gives you a cheapie on PP1.
I will note this spot kinda sucks for Tampa aside from the Panthers’ penalty issues. They’re once again playing this Lundell/Reinhart/Luostarainen that’s been dominant defensively, so it’s far from a perfect spot to be paying all the way up for these guys. I’m a sucker for TB1, but I’m less enthused about playing it here, especially into ownership.
Then we’ve got New Jersey after their high-profile flop as chalk the other night. The Devils are going to pick up ownership because they look good on paper, but I’m still not convinced they look good on ice. They’re facing the Islanders. They give up lots of high-danger chances, but Sorokin has also been excellent all season. Pretty boom/bust spot. They just don’t create many great chances without Jack Hughes. Both NJ1 (Glass/Meier/Brown) and NJ2 (Hischier/Gritsyuk/Hameenaho) just seem like stacks your optimizer will throw at you, but I’d be inclined to fade ’em again.
Washington is the other chalky mid-tier stack. Nashville’s defense is trash, and they coughed up 6 last night to Minnesota. WSH1 (Strome/Ovechkin/Beauvillier) is in one of the better raw spots on the slate, but they’re priced like a true premium line at 15K+, which makes roster construction pretty tight. You can definitely make them work with a BUF1 + Dahlin build, but once you start jamming in TB PP, it gets impossible unless you’re punting multiple positions. Because of that, BUF1 + WSH1 is going to be a very common chalk combo tonight.
WSH2 (Dubois/Wilson/Protas) is the more flexible option. They come in cheaper and fit way cleaner with the Tampa power play stack, and they should still see plenty of advantageous matchups. If you’re playing TB or BUF chalk, WSH2 is easily the Washington line that makes the most sense to pair with it. Of course, they’re also kinda chalky.
Pivot Stacks
- NSH1 (O’Reilly/Stamkos/Evangelista)
- NSH2 (Haula/Marchesseault/Forsberg)
- PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Mantha)
- PIT2 (Malkin/Chinakhov/Novak)
- PIT3 (Kindel/McGroarty/Brazeau)
- CAR1 (Aho/Jarvis/Svechnikov)
- CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Hall)
- NYI1 (Horvat/Barzal/Palat)
- LA3 (Byfield/Fiala/Kuzmenko)
- VGK PP / VGK1
The best spot is Nashville. The Preds are giving up goals, but they’re also scoring them. NSH1 is still one of the best high-event hockey lines on the slate, and Washington’s penalty kill has been shaky all year. If you’re playing tournaments, it’s really hard not to like Nashville as a leverage stack, especially if WSH ends up chalky. I prefer a NSH1 build over NSH2, and it’s extra saucy if you can afford Roman Josi. Some combination of PP1 is also good.
Pittsburgh is another pivot. Buffalo still bleeds chances. PIT1 can break the slate, and they’ll have Mantha on this line over the more expensive/injured Rakell. PIT2/3 are also viable. PIT2’s line has been particularly awesome offensively. PIT3 loses some luster without Mantha. You can play Rutger McGroarty, though, so what’s not to love about that? They’re cheap enough to fit into Tampa builds while still being different.
Carolina is another team looking very good. They’ve been playing fast, generating chances, and NYR has been garbage defensively. CAR1 is expensive but worth it. CAR2 (Stankoven/Blake/Hall) is at 3.44 xG/60, and they’re almost completely unowned. This is an awesome alternative to the cheap Devils garbage, for example.
The Islanders are one of the best leverage spots on the slate. NYI1 is expensive enough to scare people off, but NJ has been a mess defensively, and Horvat/Barzal have ceilings, as we saw the other night. If you pair them with Sorokin and/or Schaefer, you’re betting on New Jersey falling flat. Pretty good bet!
Vegas is also in play. VGK1 is expensive, but LA takes penalties, and the Kings are on a back-to-back. They also have their backup goalie in here. Speaking of the Kings, LA3 (Byfield/Fiala/Kuzmenko) is one of my favorite lower-owned tournament stacks. Just keep an eye on some potential changes to the lines if Panarin makes his debut.
Teams I’m Mostly Passing On (?)
- FLA
- OTT/PHI
I’m mostly out on Florida. The minutes situation is stupid and Tampa Bay could have their way with themm. If I play FLA at all, it’s probably FLA1 because they’ll get the matchup minutes, but I’m not excited about it.
OTT/PHI is butt, no thank you.
Defensemen
Chalk:
- Rasmus Dahlin
- Darren Raddysh
- Jacob Chychrun
- Dougie Hamilton
- John Carlson
- Brandt Clarke
- Uvis Balinskas
Dahlin is going to be insanely owned, and it makes sense because he fits perfectly with BUF1 builds. Same story with Raddysh in Tampa builds. It’s easy and going to be popular.
The guy I keep coming back to is Roman Josi. If you’re stacking Nashville, you almost have to play him.
I also really like Matthew Schaefer as a leverage defenseman, especially if you’re playing NYI1. Fuck the Devils, mostly. Tony DeAngelo is cheaper and also fine.
Erik Karlsson is another strong play. Pittsburgh stacks feel better when you include him, and Buffalo gives up enough chances that he can rack up assists if PIT hits. Shayne Gostisbehere is a nice add to some CAR stack.
Victor Hedman is still viable as a pivot if you want to get different from the Tampa chalk builds. If the minutes are trending up and he’s cheaper than Raddysh.
Samuelsson and the rest of the top 4 BUF defenders typically play heavy minutes. Byram is also fine if you’re not paying all the way up for Dahlin.
Goalie
This slate is going to have a pretty condensed goalie pool.
- Vasilevskiy
- Sorokin
- Logan Thompson
- Ullmark
- Tarasov
- Silovs
Sorokin is the obvious leverage on the Devils chalk. I don’t really think he’s likely to go overlooked, either, but I’m very into this given my lack of interest in the NJ slop.
Vasilevskiy is always going to pull ownership. Thompson is the biggest variable. If he plays, he will be popular. If he sits, Ullmark probably becomes one of the chalkier options.
Obviously Tarasov is your leverage play against this TB chalk. Ditto for Silovs against the Sabres.
Synopsis
If you play TB PP, you’re playing into the most obvious build on the slate. It can absolutely win, but you need to differentiate elsewhere. Buffalo is fine, but I’d rather not pair BUF with Washington.
The best game environment on the slate is probably NSH/WSH, and I’m very interested in stacking that game both ways. Nashville is too underowned for how chaotic their games have been. Apparently people still aren’t going to play the Preds even if they keep winning slates.
Carolina is one of the best spread exposure teams on the slate. In multi-entry stacking them 5-man makes a ton of sense because their scoring can come from anywhere.
And if you want the leverage angle, NYI1 + Sorokin, baby.
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