10 games on the board in the hockey streets tonight, so lots to dig into. The contests out there are #not #great, but that’s not really anything new. It is a fun sport, though, so if you have not yet tried NHL DFS, I highly recommend giving it a go.
Anyway, we don’t have to deal with the Avs or Oilers tonight, but there’s still some chalk we’ll have to make decisions around. Here’s how I’m prepping for the slate. As always, the lines mentioned in the article are forward lines (C/W/W).
Chalk Stacks
- SJ1 (Celebrini/Graf/Smith)
- TOR1 (Matthews/Domi/McMann)
- TOR2 (Tavares/Kneis/Maccelli)
- BOS1 (Geekie/Pastrnak/Lindholm)
- NSH1/PP (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista)
- VAN1 (Petterson/DeBrusk/Karlsson)
The first spot that really jumps out is San Jose against the crappy Canucks. Only Chicago has yielded more expected goals this season than Vancouver, and the Petterson-DeBrusk pairing defensively has not enjoyed much success. The current SJ1 line hasn’t been super productive, though we’ve only got a 66-minute sample this season of Celebrini/Graf/Smith. The main thing is Celebrini is a stud, while Graf and Smith are cheap. I don’t think playing just Celebrini + Smith and fading the shitty Graf is a terrible move, but I’m ok with all three just because it’s affordable and the spot is obviously great.
Both of TOR’s top two lines look fairly popular, as well. I think TOR2 is very clearly too cheap, while the matchup against Buffalo is more neutral than good. Much of the field will pair TOR2 with Matthews and/or Rielly. Generally don’t have an issue with that aside from the combinatorial ownership you’re cornering yourself into. I’m totally fine with TOR2 without Matthews. Even TOR3 (Roy/Robertson/Cowan) looks solid. In terms of xG per 60, Roy/Robertson/Cowan has been the Leafs’ 2nd-best line with a minimum of 60 minutes played.
BOS1 and BOS2 are probably pulling some ownership again. BOS1 was electrifying last night against the Rangers. BOS2…we don’t have to talk about. That said, this matchup against Nashville is a lot more daunting. People will see the game log and jam something like BOS1 + McAvoy or Peeke, while Arvidsson should pull some individual ownership thanks to his significant shot volume despite the goose egg yesterday. I’m not really into BOS, tbh.
NSH1 (O’Reilly/Forsberg/Evangelista) has been awesome, and this Boston team takes a shitload of penalties. The Preds’ power play has been trash, but at least it largely correlates with the first line. Given those penalty issues the Bruins have I like it a lot. NSH2 (Haula/Stamkos/Bunting) is a solid value line unlikely to be super popular.
Everyone’s jamming the Sharks, and the Canucks side looks like a good source of value, too. The issue is this team is probably going to be popular, and they’re #bad. The Petterson/Kane/DeBrusk line has Not Been Great, but the Sharks will give it up, and their netminding is subpar. Just note Evander Kane is in trade rumors, and there’s a chance he’s held out. Linus Karlsson seems like the most likely to get a promotion to the first line if Kane is out. They project well because they’re cheap and in a pretty good spot, but it’s shaky chalk, to say the least.
Intriguing Stacks
- BUF1/PP (Thompson/Tuch/Benson)
- MIN1 (Hartman/Zuccarello/Kaprizov)
- MIN2 (Eriksson Ek/Boldy/Johansson)
- VGK1/PP (Eichel/Barbashev/Stone)
- STL2 (Buchnevich/Kyrou/Neighbours)
- SJ2 (Wennberg/Toffoli/Regenda)
- SJ3 (Misa/Eklund/Gaudette)
Per the ownership, give me some Sabres. Toronto is one of the NHL’s 10 weakest defenses this season, and Buffalo has been blowing teams away lately. The Leafs still don’t take that many penalties, though I don’t have an issue if you’d rather play someone like Doan, Zucker, or Ostlund instead of Tuch or Benson. Lots of good combinations here without even mentioning Rasmus Dahlin, and nobody is even projected for 10% ownership.
Minnesota has gotten healthier recently, and this power play has started to catch fire with Quinn Hughes running the show. Chicago is a penalty-prone team, though they’ve fared well in PK situations lately. There’s just a lot of firepower here, and I don’t really think the ownership will be there. Both of the top 2 lines are outstanding, and a PP stack with Hughes sounds great to me.
STL2 has been very good, albeit in only 31 minutes so far. They’re cheap, and nobody’s playing them. The Stars are fairly average on most defensive fronts. If VAN is the cheap chalk, I’ve got no qualms with pivoting to something like this.
Same for the San Jose depth lines. Wennberg/Toffoli/Regenda is averaging nearly 4 goals per 60 (only 45 minutes). SJ3 looks like a pretty good way to get exposure to this team at no ownership. You can tack Celebrini onto any of these lines, of course.
The top two Vegas lines/PP are pricey, but this is certainly a team capable of breaking the slate. The Canadiens are 4th in penalty minutes this season, so Vegas will spend time on the man advantage. I’d start with a
Defensemen
Quinn Hughes is one of my favorite plays on the slate at any position, and he’s going to come in lower-owned than he probably should, even with 10 games out there. Chalkier pieces are McAvoy, Klingberg, Rielly, Josi, Clarke, and Hronek. I’m happy to play Dahlin with or without some other BUF pieces. The Kraken have the NHL’s worst penalty kill, so paying up for Chychrun is going to be very different and potentially slate-breaking. Still prefer Hughes if I’m prioritizing one, though Chychrun is $1,000 cheaper.
Goaltender
Hellebuyck looks like the chalkiest option on the slate at $7,200 against the Devils. It’s not like New Jersey is a cake matchup, so you can consider some NJ stacks as leverage, even with Jack Hughes dealing with some sort of injury. I’m otherwise fine with the league’s best goalie at something of a discount. Kuemper, Swayman, and Gibson are all coming in around 10%, too.
For the sickos, the obvious plays are obvious. Luukkonen gets a matchup against the chalky Maple Leafs, while Lankinen will be in net for Vancouver against San Jose. Spencer Knight is a talented goalie facing the high-octane MIN attack. If the Canucks are chalky – which is looks like they will be – you can certainly consider Askarov.
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