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NHL DFS Picks: Top Stacks and Strategy (1/23)

macklin celebrini

I’m not on NBA Core Plays duty today, and we’ve got another beefer of an 8-game slate in the NHL DFS streets on this fine Friday night. Kevin told me that since we all hang out in the NHL Discord channel all day I might as well write about this shit. You know what? He’s right.

The point of this thing is to identify some of the top stacking options on the slate, and whether the chalk out there is good or worth fading. I’ll also highlight a few defense and goalie standouts to round things out.

Let’s dive in.

Chalk Stacks – COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Oloffson), SEA1 (Beniers/McCann/Eberle), SJ1 (Celebrini/Smith/Graf)

The Avs are on the slate, and their top line is chalk just about every night. Given the insane production, it’s rarely bad chalk. Tonight they draw a favorable matchup at home against a Flyers team with some goaltending issues. Nathan MacKinnon will be the single chalkiest player on the slate, and it’s hard to argue. I think one way to get different is to play MacKinnon on top of COL2 (Nelson/Nichushkin/Lehkonen).

Paying up for Cale Makar is more of a luxury than a necessity, especially given the cost here. Playing MacKinnon or Makar as one-offs or a 2-man forward stack (MacKinnon + a cheap Oloffson) along with Makar also works.

Both sides of the ANH/SEA game are interesting. Anaheim is really banged up, though they haven’t been quite as leaky defensively in recent games. We’re still going to see some ownership on a cheap SEA1 line, but it’s easier to jam a cheap and much lower-owned SEA3 (Kakko/Schwartz/Wright) and retain the funds necessary to pay up for something like COL1 or DAL1. I like Vince Dunn and/or Brandon Montour regardless of whether you’re stacking them with a SEA line.

Mason McTavish is out again, so we’re looking at the Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn line as the Ducks’ top group tonight. Pretty much all of Anaheim’s recent stats are brutal, as they’re without quite a few primary pieces, but this line is cheap and should see tons of ice time against the Kraken’s shitty goaltending. Cutter Gauthier is expensive but should be on PP1. Just like the SEA defenders, I’m into Jackson LaCombe and Jacob Trouba with or without teammates.

San Jose projects very well in general as they return home to host the Rangers. SJ1 will be the chalkiest thing here because you get Celebrini along with a couple of cheapies in Will Smith and Collin Graf. Celebrini’s price has also come down a bit after he was pushing $10,000. I think an onslaught of a couple of SJ lines is viable – SJ2 with Wennberg/Toffoli/Regenda is solid, SJ3 (Misa/Eklund/Gaudette) is free. I’m good with playing Celebrini or a cheap John Klingberg on top of any line.

Favorite Stacks – TB1 (Kucherov/Hagel/Cirelli), NYR1 (Panarin/Trochek/Lafreniere), PHI1 (Zegras/Dvorak/Konecny), STL2 (Kyrou/Buchnevich/Neighbours), DAL1-2

TB1 looks underowned, even if they won’t be completely unowned. This has just been an extremely productive group with 4.5 xG per 60 minutes, and they get a shitty Blackhawks defense on a B2B starting its backup netminder. This is the most obvious pivot away from that COL1 chalk. They’re expensive, but easily paired with some of the aforementioned cheap stuff from ANH/SEA. Raddysh on top of the forward line is fun if you can find the funds. I’m not stacking any other TB line, but Guentzel will stay in my pool.

The Sharks have been a team to target all season, while the Rangers, for no reason, are far better on the road. SJ also commits a boatload of penalties, so the Rangers should have some man-advantage chances. I think either of the top two lines or a PP combination works. I wouldn’t play any sort of NYR stack without Panarin, though.

If you want something gross and cheap, PHI and STL fit the bill. The Avs’ defending and goaltending is Not Great, yet it seems like Colorado’s opponent rarely garners much attention. No need to mess with anything beyond PHI1, but that line has been extremely productive regardless of matchup. DAL is on a back-to-back and the defense has also scuffled. Nobody ever plays the Blues, either, but STL2 is all $4,500 or cheaper. Justin Faulk is a decent D option to throw on top of the stack.

DAL should pull some ownership on the other side of the game after failing as chalk yesterday. Mikko Rantanen is back, though, so they should be more productive as a result. An onslaught is pretty viable here. Something like DAL1 (Hintz/Robertson/Bourque) + Johnston or Steel or Rantanen or Duchene along with Miro Heiskanen. Thomas Harley appears to be some sort of chalk that I think you can get away from.

Defense

I’ve mentioned a few defenders already – Makar, Raddysh, Klingberg, Heiskanen, Faulk, Montour, Dunn, Trouba, LaCombe.

I like the cheap NJ defensemen – Dougie Hamilton and Simon Nemec – if you need some salary relief. Jacob Chychrun is always a top option given his proclivity to shoot, he’ll just cost ya. Filip Hronek and Tom Willander are cheap and on my radar, as well.

Goalie

Blackwood, Thompson, and Vasilevsky are the three currently pulling the most ownership at RG. Fine? Vasilevsky is the one I’m inclined to prioritize, followed by Blackwood. Still like that PHI1 stack as some potential leverage there, though. I’m also good if you want to save money with Grubauer against that injury-plagued Ducks squad.

Goalie doesn’t really matter.

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