7 more games on the board in the NHL streets on Tuesday night, and the chalk, once again, looks pretty clear. Last night’s chalk – CHI1 – didn’t really come through, though Sam Rinzel sure did.
This looks like another solid slate with some obvious cheap stuff to pair with some obvious expensive stuff. Really, I think playing anything other than chalk NJD with Edmonton should be fine from a leverage standpoint. NJD + EDM is “most likely” to be a high-scoring combination, but there’s a lot of volatility in this sport. Plus, the Devils are bad and missing their best player.
Onward.
Chalk Stacks
- NJ1/PP1 (Glass/Brown/Meier or Glass/Brown/Meier/Hischier)
- EDM 1 (McDavid/Nugent-Hopkins/Hyman)
- TB1 (Kucherov/Hagel/Guentzel)
So, the Devils. No Jack Hughes, but that makes the top lines awfully cheap to stack. The matchup against Columbus looks pretty good, and the Jackets are starting their weaker netminder, Elvis. We’ve only seen this Glass/Meier/Brown line on the ice for around 16 minutes this season, and they’re not even averaging 2 xG per 60 minutes. But it’s a $5,400 guy with a couple of $3,000 punts, and it’s easy to just jam ’em in with a $5,600 Nico Hischier to get yourself a nice PP1 stack. Dougie Hamilton ($5,300) should also get some attention as a defenseman to pair with them.
While the PP stack looks pretty good, it’s not like the Blue Jackets have been that prone to penalties.
I don’t think playing the Devils is necessarily bad, but you will be eating a ton of ownership if you’re pairing them along with the more expensive top lines from Edmonton or Tampa Bay. The Lightning won’t have the cheap Cirelli to play alongside Kucherov and Hagel, but adding Guentzel to the line instead just gives them a shitload of firepower, even if it’s pricier. We’ve barely seen this line all season. The prices may lead people to instead play just 2 of them – Kucherov/Hagel or Kucherov/Guentzel. Buffalo is a neutral matchup overall, but they are on the latter half of a back-to-back.
Not much to add about the Oilers – McDavid/Nugent-Hopkins/Hyman is up there with the normal TB1 line as the most productive in the league. Salaries are just cumbersome – McDavid is $10,300, so you really need him to pile it up here against the terrible Maple Leafs, also on a B2B. He’s capable, I just don’t know if I’m sold on paying all the way up for him, especially in something like a single-entry.
All of these lines are good plays individually, I’d just try to avoid gobbling up all the ownership that comes with playing TB1 or EDM1 alongside the Devils.
Pivot Stacks
- PIT1 (Crosby/Rust/Rakell)
- PIT2 (Malkin/Chinakhov/Novak)
- SEA1 (Beniers/Eberle/McCann)
- TOR2 (Tavares/Nylander/Maccelli)
- PHI1 (Dvorak/Konecny/Grebenkin)
- PHI2 (Tippett/Zegras/Denver Barkey)
- BUF PP1 (Thompson/Dahlin/Zucker/Quinn/Doan)
Pittsburgh gets Bryan Rust back from his suspension, so I assume he’ll go back to the top line in place of Brazeau. This is a wildly expensive line, so I doubt people will play it when they can instead pay up for EDM or TB. The Islanders have an elite goalie, and they’re still absolute garbage defensively. If Sorokin happens to not be on his game, the Penguins can pile up 5-6 goals here.
I really like PIT2 for the same reason. This Malkin/Chinakhov/Novak line has absolutely shredded (3.91 xG per 60), and it’s easy to see them doing damage again here with NYI giving up tons of high-danger chances. This line should be chalkier than PIT1 because of the salaries, but I have no qualms with it. Pretty strong Devils pivot. Chinakhov is someone I’d play as a one-off on this slate, even into ownership. He’s too cheap.
SEA1 has just been solid, and they get a nice draw against a penalty-prone Ducks squad. The ANH1 line with Granlund has also been poor defensively. Adding Dunn to the SEA1 bunch and rolling with a power play stack looks excellent to me, and I’m probably doing that in single-entry.
Toronto has been awful, but the Oilers are still very leaky defensively, and they won’t have Tristan Jarry in net. The Tavares/Nylander/Maccelli line has played very well (3.25 xG per 60), and I don’t think people are going to want to go here on a back-to-back.
The Flyers look like the best like-for-like pivot away from New Jersey. The Caps are very low on the depth chart here with Garin Bjorklund (???) in net. Philly split up their previous top line and moved Zegras down to L2, and I slightly prefer that one (Zegras/Tippett/Barkey) to PHI1. This whole thing is wildly cheap, though, and onslaughts are viable. Both lines have produced at decent clips with a slight edge to PHI2.
Buffalo’s on the slate, so I’m interested by default. The Lightning are good defensively overall, but they can’t stay out of the penalty box. They lead the league in penalty minutes taken, so stacking some pieces from the Buffalo power play is again very appealing. Any combination of the 5 listed above looks pretty good, and I’d be reluctant to fade Rasmus Dahlin in those lineups.
Defensemen
We don’t have a Sam Rinzel-esque cheap free square tonight. Vince Dunn, Dougie Hamilton, and Oliver Ekman-Larsson are currently projected for the most ownership. Dunn and Hamilton are the best of that group, I’m more lukewarm on Ekman-Larsson. Brandon Montour, Evan Bouchard, and Darren Raddysh should all be somewhat chalky, too. I like John Carlson as a lower-owned play.
Buffalo’s defense minutes are very concentrated between Dahlin/Samuelsson/Power/Bryam, so any of those four looks good, obviously Dahlin is the headliner.
Tacking Erik Karlsson onto any PIT stack is useful. Walman, Nurse, and Ekholm could attract some attention as cheaper pieces in EDM stacks if you’re not paying all the way up for Bouchard.
I’d like Zach Werenski (and the rest of CBJ) if the minutes weren’t weird. He can still get there, and he should be reasonably low-owned, I’d just rather play Dahlin if I’m paying up for one of these guys.
Probably wouldn’t play any defenseman cheaper than Ekman-Larsson on this slate.
Goalie
Sorokin and Vasilevsky should be pretty popular. I never mind getting to Sorokin, as he generally has a lot of save opportunities with the shit defense playing in front of him. I think his potential ownership is just another feather in the cap of a Pittsburgh stack, though. You can say the same of the Sabres if Vasilevsky is popular.
I’m fine with Stu Skinner against the Leafs. Another goalie in front of a bad defense. The leverage plays on the slate are clearly Stolarz (vs. EDM) and Merzlikins (vs. NJD). If you’re fading the Devils, you should probably just play Merzlikins.
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