The NBA is back after taking a break last night. We missed it, that’s for sure. I was dabbling in hockey and playing a crappy 2-game MLB DFS night slate over here. The withdrawals were real. Luckily, tonight’s return signals a long stretch of slates as the playoffs officially pick up with the real bracket on Saturday.
This is still a slate where I’d temper expectations and tread lightly. However, there are some obvious plays to target. I’ll go over my top NBA DFS picks for today, and also highlight my preferred GPP pivots and top game to stack. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Moussa Diabate, Kristaps Porzingis, Grayson Allen, and Mark Williams.
- Best value plays: Gui Santos. Played 31 min last game and projects well.
- Top game to attack: Hornets vs. Magic. Totals and spreads are identical, but this game could be played at a faster pace.
- Top stud: LaMelo Ball. Couldn’t make a three to save his life and still got 56 fantasy points.
- Blowout risks: None.
Top NBA DFS Top Picks for Friday, 4/17
- LaMelo Ball ($9k)
- Gui Santos ($5k)
- Kristaps Porzingis ($6.5k)
- Jalen Green ($7.2k)
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
Let’s start the day with a nice little four-pack. I’d first like to say that for a two-game slate, there is surprisingly a ton to like. There are several intriguing values and there are some compelling plays not listed here.
Guys like Anthony Black and Al Horford are solid values to help us save cash. Guys like Brandin Podziemski and Kon Knueppel are simply too cheap for their expected roles, too.
But in terms of guys I think we absolutely have to have, I’m definitely starting with Ball. Anytime Ball has a long leash we just need to bite the bullet and play him. He’s still not expensive enough, all things considered, and the guy popped off for 56 fantasy points despite hitting just two threes last game.
Ball is a smash spend. I will aim to pair him with Curry or Booker, but I’m not entirely sure that’s a must since the 2nd tier options are pretty good.
Santos logged 31 minutes last game and played really well. Due to his cheap salary I am all for doubling down on him here. Porzingis also looks great. He did lose some minutes with Al Horford shooting out of his mind down the stretch last game, but Zinger was excellent when he was out there.
Jalen Green is a pure projection and usage play. He played 38 minutes last game and had an absurd 38% usage rate. If that holds up, I don’t see how we can fade at this reasonable price. Obviously for any of these guys you can leverage them with lower-owned guys, but this is how I’ll start off most of my builds.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 4/17
I am locking in this core and I probably won’t be fading Curry, regardless of ownership. Then we just need to get different with those other three slots. If you’re playing a big GPP you should stray from the core a bit, but don’t go crazy. In single entry contests you can eat a lot of chalk and just make 1-2 moves nobody else is making. Just make sure there’s logic behind those unique pivots.
- 🟢 SAFE – Gui/Porzingis/Ball. Gui’s price makes him pretty safe. Same with Porzingis. It’d take an epic face plant for Ball to fail us.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Jalen Green. I am banking on the minutes/usage here, but we know he’s volatile.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 4/17
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Both games have a similar total and spread. Orlando pushes the pace a bit and the Hornets and Warriors both are elite from long range. My guess is both games hit the Over. Every single Play-In game has been fire to this point, so you can stack up either side. Something tells me we’ll want more of Curry vs. Booker, though – especially if the first game is going to be more popular.
Friday’s NBA DFS GPP Pivots
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Devin Booker ($8.5k)
- Paolo Banchero ($8.9k)
Ownership doesn’t feel very reliable at the moment, but my guess is these two studs will go overlooked. Early signs indicate LaMelo and Steph will be pretty owned, plus a lot of ownership will flock to Jalen Green, Warriors value, and Hornets guys. Ultimately, that should have Booker and Banchero be low-owned by default.
Now, does that automatically make them smash plays? Does it mean they’ll be under 30% owned? Not necessarily, but on a 2-game slate I don’t think we need 5% owned guys to break the slate. We just need a unique build, to fade that one bad piece of chalk, or make one pivot where one of our expensive plays is better than a more popular one.
Booker seems like the play here for GPPs. He is direct leverage on all of Ball/Curry/Banchero, but he’s also leverage on what should be a popular Jalen Green as well. I think I’d just play Green in most lineups, but Booker is The Way in big GPPs.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
New to NBA DFS and need even more help? Check out our NBA DFS guide for extra assistance on how to get started!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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