Back in the NHL DFS streets to start the new week. The season is down to the final few weeks, so there’s still time to make some sweet, sweet cash before MLB arrives.
5 games on the board tonight, so we should have concentrated ownership. Here’s an overview and a breakdown of the way I’m approaching it for DraftKings GPPs.
Tonight’s 5-Game Slate Overview
Five games, a manageable slate, and a pretty clear pecking order once you look at the projected totals:
| Game | Proj Goals (Away/Home) | Time (ET) |
|---|---|---|
| LAK @ NYR | 2.9 / 2.9 | 4:00 PM |
| BOS @ NJD | 3.0 / 3.3 | 4:00 PM |
| CGY @ DET | 2.5 / 3.4 | 4:00 PM |
| UTA @ DAL | 2.7 / 3.2 | 5:00 PM |
| PIT @ COL | 2.6 / 4.0 | 6:30 PM |
The anchor game is PIT/COL. Colorado projects for 4 goals, the highest number on the board by a wide margin. The Avs are the play tonight. Detroit is the second-best at 3.4, and in a slate this small, stacking Detroit alongside Colorado gives you a 4/3/1 build that covers two of the three highest-projected teams. Of course, the field is likely to do that, too.
Games I’m fading or limiting: UTA projects for just 2.7 in Dallas, and this is their weakest game environment on the slate. Ownership will be low for a reason. NYR and PIT are the other low-projection teams at 2.9 and 2.6, respectively. I have much more interest in PIT than NYR, and I’ll offer some more details below.
The BOS/NJD game is interesting. New Jersey checks in at 3.3 projected goals – third on the board – and Boston sits at 3. This is your secondary game for stacking, especially if you want to stay off the heavy DET/COL chalk.
NHL DFS Stacking Strategy (How It Works)
If you’re new to NHL DFS, the stacking rules are different from basketball. Here’s what you need to know.
Why do we stack in hockey? Goals are correlated. When a line scores, they’re usually all on the ice together – the center, both wings, and sometimes a defenseman who jumps into the rush. That means if one guy on the line scores, the others often pick up an assist. If you have them all in your lineup, that single goal event produces multiple scoring plays for your roster.
The two most common NHL stack structures are:
4/3/1 — The bread-and-butter structure. Four players from one team (typically a full line of center + two wings, plus a defenseman or a second-line center), three players from a second team (usually a full line), and one player from a third game for salary flexibility and differentiation. This is the most common winning structure in cash games and GPPs.
3/3 — The two-stack build. Three from one team, three from another – typically mirroring two strong games against each other. This works especially well in shootout-style matchups where you want exposure to both sides of a game total. It’s a little less correlated than 4/3/1 but gives you clean exposure to two games.
One critical goalie rule that trips up beginners: Your goalie does NOT stack with his own skaters. This is the opposite of what feels intuitive. A shutout or blowout win is great for your goalie, but terrible for the team you stacked against him. Pair your goalie with a team that’s expected to win, and build your skater stacks from the offense you want to ride. You can also get direct leverage by playing goalies against popular stacks. Goalies facing high-octane offenses – like COL – have a wide range of outcomes. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to rack up saves, which helps to offset the damage of conceding 3-4 goals.
Top NHL DFS Plays
These are the spots I’m targeting tonight.
NHL DFS Lines
- DET1 (Compher/DeBrincat/Kane)
- COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Kadri)
- PIT1 (Novak/Malkin/Chinakhov)
- PIT2 (Rakell/Rust/Mantha)
- LAK1 (Kopitar/Panarin/Kempe)
- DET2 (Finnie/Perron/Raymond)
- CGY1 (Backlund/Farabee/Coleman)
- CGY2 (Frost/Gridin/Coronato)
The Red Wings won’t have the injured Dylan Larkin, so JT Compher should slide up to center L1 next to Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane. We actually have a decent sample with this line this season (78 minutes), and they’ve produced a healthy 3.46 xG/60 minutes. Dustin Wolf has been poor in net all season, and Calgary’s defense is weakened after the trade deadline. Compher is very cheap ($2,800), and I’m a fan of the matchup. The only concern is the ownership. They’re also fully correlated on the power play. You can add James van Riemsdyk ($2,600) as a cheapie to add to a PP stack.
DET2 is even cheaper with David Perron ($2,700) and Emmitt Finnie ($2,600) alongside a $5,200 Lucas Raymond. I think this is the cheap line the field will want to stack with COL1 just because it’s easy to do. I do not love it, but I get it.
So, the Avs. Nazem Kadri is back and up to L1 next to MacKinnon and Necas. The trio hasn’t been amazing in a smallish sample so far this season (2.55 xG/60), but they’re fucking good, so I won’t put too much stock into the mid numbers. Silovs has been poor, though this team is middle of the pack defensively. The ceilings are so high on the primary Avs that I will certainly have ample exposure in multi-entry, but there’s certainly a case to fade this chalk in SE. Ownership is probably going to get pretty extreme on MacKinnon, in particular. $23,600 is a ton to pay for this top line, though.
One of my favorite pivots is the Kings. Kopitar/Panarin/Kempe has been great (3.26 xG/60), and it’s a #RevengeGame for Panarin after his trade away from the Rangers last month. Stacking against Shesterkin isn’t ideal, so ownership should be reasonably low here. I like adding Brandt Clarke as the QB of the power play, though Drew Doughty is cheap enough ($3,100) to be fine as the 4th or 5th man.
Calgary’s matchup isn’t ideal, either, but this team is free. The top two lines are each hovering around just $11,000. They’re probably cheap because they’ve been horrible, which isn’t a huge surprise after losing Kadri. It’s just very easy to punt with them as a way to afford the pricier top lines from COL or LAK.
People are scared to play against Colorado for whatever reason, but this game should have a fast pace. It looks like Novak/Malkin/Chinakhov will play as the top line, and they’ve fucking crushed so far (4.23 xG/60) in a hefty 176-minute sample. Just give me all of PIT1 if that line gets confirmed. PIT2 (Rakell/Rust/Mantha) is actually a little more expensive, and we don’t have stats on their work together. They’re all good players, so I’d imagine they’ll also be productive. I’d rather get to PIT than CGY among the cheap stacks.
Defensemen
- Dougie Hamilton ($5,300)
- Miro Heiskanen ($5,500)
- Luke Hughes ($3,800)
- Adam Fox ($5,600)
- Brandt Clarke ($5,000)
- Charlie McAvoy ($5,800)
- Cale Makar ($7,500)
- Erik Karlsson ($4,700)
- Mo Seider ($5,700)
Generally, I have no qualms with attaching a D-man to one of your line stacks, especially if that D-man happens to run a PP1. Among those listed above, only Luke Hughes is on PP2.
Goalie
- Dustin Wolf ($7,200)
- Igor Shesterkin ($7,500)
- Joonas Korpisalo ($7,600)
- John Gibson ($8,200)
Play whoever you want. Wolf is definitely the leverage play against the aforementioned DET chalk. He’s bad, but hey. I think Shesterkin is likely the chalkiest G, which is one of the reasons I’m into the Kings. I suppose you can play Casey DeSmith in that gross UTA-DAL game. The balls-to-the-wall play is Silovs against Colorado.
Slate Strategy: The Cliff’s Notes
Alright, here’s the short version if you don’t want to read through all of this.
The chalk tonight is DET1 + COL1, and with only 5 games on the board, the field is going to be packed there. That’s fine – these are probably the two best stacks on the slate, and you should have exposure to both in multi-entry. DET1 is the anchor. Larkin’s out, Compher slides up to center next to DeBrincat and Kane, and they’re going up against Dustin Wolf, who has been bad all season behind a weakened Calgary backend. COL1 is the upside stack in a 4-projected goal game, and MacKinnon ownership in particular is going to get out of hand – keep that in mind if you’re playing single-entry. Fading him gives you a big ownership edge. Risky, obviously.
The two builds I keep coming back to for tonight:
DET1 primary / COL1 secondary (cash-leaning): Chalk on chalk, but it’s a 5-game slate. There’s not a lot of room to be cute. Lock DET1, add COL1 or at least MacKinnon/Necas, attach a PP1 D from your primary game, and get to the goalie spot. Wolf or Shesterkin depending on how you’re feeling about ownership.
LAK1 primary / PIT1 secondary (GPP pivot): This is my favorite non-chalk build tonight. Kopitar/Panarin/Kempe has been excellent (3.26 xG/60) and Panarin has extra motivation in a revenge game against his former team. Stacking against Shesterkin keeps ownership low. On the PIT side, if Novak/Malkin/Chinakhov gets confirmed, that’s the highest-xG line on the entire slate at 4.23 in a massive 176-minute sample. Playing Pittsburgh against Colorado feels weird, but the numbers are what they are. Silovs as your goalie here with the LAK stack is a genuinely contrarian build that has a real ceiling if COL goes cold.
CGY is purely salary relief — use them as a cheap 3rd game piece if your stack forces it, but don’t get excited about the matchup. If you need a cheap stack to get to LAK1, PIT is a better choice than CGY.
Lock lineups after 4 PM game confirmations come through. Larkin’s absence and the COL/PIT starting goalie situations are the key things to verify.
Let’s build!
Not Sure Where to Start? (Beginner Build Guide)
Five-game slates are actually the easiest to navigate when you’re new — fewer decisions, clearer hierarchy. Tonight’s board is pretty straightforward once you understand the logic.
Start with the goalie, because it shapes everything else. Remember: your goalie is never on the same team as your skater stack. Tonight, that means if you’re building around DET skaters (Compher, DeBrincat, Kane), you’re not playing the DET goalie — you’re playing Wolf against them, which is actually a fine spot since Calgary doesn’t project to score much. Same idea on the COL side. The goalie goes against your stack, not with it.
Once your goalie is set, pick a line you believe in and commit to it. DET1 is a great starting point for beginners tonight because the value is obvious — Compher at $2,800, Kane and DeBrincat next to him, Larkin out, and they’re going against a bad goalie. You don’t need to overthink it. Stack those three together and add a fourth DET piece (a defenseman or a second forward from their power play) to build out your 4-man.
Your second stack fills the other half of the lineup. If you’re going DET heavy, pair it with COL1 or a piece of PIT1 as your 3-man secondary. If you’re feeling COL heavy, DET1 or DET2 are easy, affordable secondaries. The two stacks don’t need to be from opposing teams — they just need to be from games you believe in.
The one thing that trips new players up on 5-game slates is feeling like they’re missing something by not spreading across more games. You’re not. Concentrate into two games, play the lines that make sense, and let variance do its thing.
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