Ahoy hoy. It is now June, which, generally is a good month. Usually starts to heat up around this time, so maybe we’ll see offense around MLB perk up.
On this day in 1648, the Roundheads beat the Cavaliers in the Battle of Maidstone as a part of England’s Second Civil War. That one really stung because I had the Cleveland moneyline, but we can’t win ’em all.
On to the stuff!
Top MLB DFS Pitchers (6/1)
- Chase Boo-urns ($10,200, vs. KC)
- Jose Soriano ($9,700, vs. COL)
- Jacob deGrom ($9,200, at STL)
- Joe Ryan ($9,000, vs. CHW)
- Landen Roupp ($8,500, at MIL)
- Emerson Hancock ($8,000, vs. NYM)
- Emmet Sheehan ($7,800, at AZ)
- Sean Manaea ($5,500, at SEA)
- Kyle Freeland ($5,300, at LAA)
UPDATE: Burns was scratched. Probably wouldn’t play him!
There’s a little bit of everything on the pitching side tonight. Chase Burns is the only arm who’ll run you more than 4 figures for a home matchup against the Royals. Burns’ 28.9% strikeout rate on the season is solid, though, if anything, he’s potentially leaving some Ks on the table. I think there’s room for growth on this front. He’s been particularly excellent against right-handed hitters, while lefties have hit for some power and taken some walks against him.
There’s nothing all that noteworthy for the matchup against the Royals, who can stack the order with as many as 6 lefties against Burns. A few of those (Jensen, Caglianone, Collins) are solid sources of Ks, but KC is overall a pretty average strikeout opponent. Factor in the Reds’ homer-friendly ballpark and I think Burns is a solid play, though not by far and away the SP1.
Based on matchup, that title potentially belongs to Jose Soriano, who draws the Rockies away from Denver. Soriano’s blazing-hot pace has slowed on the heels of his first handful of starts. For the season, he’s still sporting a career-best 26.9% strikeout rate and a solid 51.4% groundball rate, though the old control issues (10.3% walks) are still here. Soriano is also allowing some barrels (8.9%), though the groundball stuff generally helps him keep it in the yard.
The Rockies are pretty terrible, with only Jake McCarthy and Hunter Goodman showing much power potential vs. right-handed pitching. While it’s a higher-K group against lefties, they’ll still whiff a decent amount vs. RHP (23.1%). I think Burns is the better pitcher than Soriano, but does the matchup and $500 discount tip the scales in Soriano’s favor? I think there’s a pretty good chance Soriano comes in as heavy chalk, and, as a result, I’m not thrilled about it. I’ll play him, but I prefer an underweight approach if he’s going to be 40+% owned.
Jacob deGrom is no longer the ace of the aces, and he comes into this one on the heels of 3 consecutive mediocre starts. DeGrom’s 3.08 SIERA tells us his already-good 3.77 ERA is unlucky, while his 29.4% strikeout rate is right there with Burns for the highest on the slate. DeGrom doesn’t have Burns’ control troubles; it’s really just a matter of home-run variance. The Ranger right-hander has already coughed up 13 dingers, half as many as he allowed last year.
Most of deGrom’s power issues have come against lefties. Tonight in St. Louis, he may face up to 6 of those. The Cardinals are similar to the Rockies in terms of strikeout rate (22.9%) vs. RHP, but there’s more talent in the St. Louis lineup overall. DeGrom won’t be contrarian, though I do think Soriano will be more popular. I think he’s a very good play.
Joe Ryan looks similar to deGrom in terms of strikeouts (27.2%), walks (5.4%), and power issues against lefties. He went out and struck out 9 of these very White Sox in his last start, and this time he won’t have to tangle with the injured Munetaka Murakami. That certainly improves the matchup, even if Ryan has to deal with 7 left-handed bats again. Colson Montgomery is really the only lefty hitting for power. While facing the same foe twice in a row typically favors the offense, Ryan grades out similarly to deGrom in just about every way. I expect deGrom to be the more popular of the two, though I don’t have a strong lean.
Landen Roupp (27.3% Ks, 8.8% walks, 2.6% barrels) belongs in the top tier based on 2026’s numbers, though he does take a park downgrade going into Milwaukee. Facing a lefty-heavy Brewers lineup is also suboptimal, as Roupp’s had some control issues (11.3% walks) against opposite-handed hitters. Roupp does keep the ball on the ground well vs. hitters of either handedness, but his 10.4% swinging strike rate means his current K-rate may be a bit inflated. I think he can turn in a fine start here – and he’ll be in my pool – but I don’t see much sense in prioritizing Roupp when deGrom and Ryan are right there for a few extra hundred bucks.
Emerson Hancock (25.1% Ks, 6% walks) is having the best season of his career, and his swinging strike rate is similar to Roupp’s. Hancock has really only spiked one huge strikeout game, but he’s otherwise hovering between 3 and 6 Ks in most outings. I like the pitcher-friendly park, while the Mets have been one of the weakest lineups in baseball this season against righties (.127 ISO, .292 wOBA). Even if it’s not a great matchup for Ks (20.6%), I’m also not sure the Mets are even capable of inflicting a ton of damage. Hancock is a solid option at just $8,000, and I’d play him over Roupp if choosing one.
Emmet Sheehan is another guy in the deGrom/Ryan tier in terms of strikeouts (27.2%) and power issues (.207 ISO, .330 wOBA). I do think Sheehan is another guy who’s suffered from some bad luck, while the DBax are a fairly low-strikeout lot (19.6%) against righties. They also have a couple of excellent lefties atop the lineup, but it’s also not the scariest group 3-through-9. Sheehan is more talented than his $7,800 salary would indicate, though I’m also not sure he’s needed on this slate. I’d have more interest on a slate without so many quality options, which leaves Sheehan as a large-field leftover tonight.
We’ve also got a couple of punts to discuss. Sean Manaea is expected to work in bulk relief for the Mets in Seattle following an opener. He’s probably getting to 80 pitches in a best-case scenario. Manaea has always been a decent strikeout pitcher with okay control, and the 3.62 SIERA tells us his 5.56 ERA is nonsense. The Mariners aren’t striking out as frequently as they were a couple of seasons ago, but they’re also a lefty-heavy lineup with only a couple of notable righties these days. Most importantly, Manaea is just $5,500. I think he’s a decent option if you need the savings at SP2.
Kyle Freeland is next. It’s worth noting he’s been absolutely ghastly with an ERA north of 8 so far, but the 4.20 SIERA is much more respectable/average. Freeland’s 19.3% strikeout rate this season is poor, but it’s also the best mark he’s posted in a season since 2021. Freeland is viable tonight thanks to the matchup against a high-strikeout Angels team away from Coors Field. Los Angeles does have a lot of right-handed power – which makes the Halos one of the slate’s better stacks – but you can talk me into a dusting of Freeland in large-field contests.
SP Rankings
- deGrom
- Ryan
- Hancock
- Soriano
- Roupp
- Manaea
- Sheehan
- Freeland
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Monday
- Dodgers (at Eduardo Rodriguez)
- Mets (at Emerson Hancock)
- Reds (vs. Luinder Avila)
- Angels (vs. Kyle Freeland)
- White Sox (at Joe Ryan)
- DBax (at Emmet Sheehan)
The Dodgers will hit the road to face E-Rod in the desert. The veteran is the proud owner of a shiny 2.31 ERA, but his 4.57 SIERA tells a different tale. Rodriguez has stranded nearly 85% of baserunners with a .259 BABIP, so he’s due for regression. E-Rod has had pretty pronounced reverse splits from the left side over the years, but righties have fared decently well against him as his career has advanced.
The moral of the story: Play the Dodgers, both left- and right-handed. Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker have the best lefty-on-lefty data over the years, while I’m still okay with Freddie Freeman. Andy Pages is the top right-handed bat they’ve got these days, followed by Will Smith and Mookie Betts. Guys like Miguel Rojas, Alex Call, and Santiago Espinal all come with pinch-hit risk, so buyer beware with the lower-in-the-order Doyers.
I assume the Dodgers will get some ownership, while I could see the Angels being even more popular against Freeland. We like the Angels against lefties to begin with, as all of Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Joe Adell, and Oswald Peraza have shown plus power this season, while Jorge Soler, Logan O’Hoppe, and Jose Siri have solid longer-term histories. Because Freeland typically won’t miss a lot of bats, guys like Neto, Trout, Soler, and Siri grade out better than they usually might.
The Reds are at home against Luinder Avila, who’s really serving as something like a long opener for the Royals. He’ll probably get the first 3-4 innings before giving way to the bullpen. Cincinnati also doesn’t have Elly De La Cruz anymore, as he landed on the injured list this morning. Bullpen games aren’t all that fun to target, but on a smallish slate without a lot of standout offense, I’m okay with the Reds. JJ Bleday, Sal Stewart, Nathaniel Lowe, Spencer Steer, and Tyler Stephenson all have double-digit barrel rates against RHP this year, while Blake Dunn has been solid out of the leadoff spot. Bleday and Stewart are the headliners here.
Hancock has pitched well and is a viable option tonight, but I don’t mind firing up some Mets against him for a little leverage. Juan Soto is obviously the one you want the most, while you can otherwise save salary with guys like Carson Benge, Brett Baty, Marcus Semien, and Mark Vientos. I prefer them as a mini-stack with the Dodgers.
The Twins draw David Sandlin, a rookie making his 2nd career MLB start. The first was also against the Twins just last week. Like the Mets, the Twins are a bunch of cheap guys along with a lone superstar at the top, Byron Buxton. Kody Clemens, Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, and Austin Martin are decent, affordable plays. This is another team I’d rather mini-stack.
Ryan is very splitsy, so White Sox lefties are on my radar. It’s not exciting once you get past Colson Montgomery, though left-handed Italians Sam Antonacci and Andrew Benintendi will hit from favorable lineup spots. Jacob Gonzalez is also a lefty for just $2,000.
Other Things I Like
- DBax LHBs vs. Sheehan – Carroll, Marte, Perdomo
- Brewers LHBs vs. Roupp – Yelich, Turang, Bauers, Mitchell
- Giants RHBs vs. Drohan – Schmitt, Adames, Chapman
- Jake McCarthy and Hunter Goodman vs. Soriano
- Mariners RHBs vs. Manaea – Rodriguez, Arozarena, Garver
- Rangers LHBs vs. McGreevy – Pederson, Nimmo, Carter
- Cardinals LHBs – Wetherholt, Burleson, Gorman
Stack Confidence-o-Meter
- Dodgers
- Angels
- Reds?
- Mets
- Twins
- DBax LHBs
- White Sox LHBs
- Rangers LHBs
- Mariners RHBs
- Brewers LHBs
- Giants RHBs
- Cardinals LHBs
- A Smattering of Rockies
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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