Hello! It’s Friday, so at least we have that going for us. I’ve got a weird earwax buildup thing going on in my left ear, so I don’t have that going for me. Life isn’t all rainbows and waterfalls, I guess.
I will delay the beginning of the analysis to call out a few May 29th birthdays, because why not – Paul Skenes, Puka Nacua, Austin Reaves, Markelle Fultz, Tobin Heath, Carmelo Anthony, Daniel Tosh, Noel Gallagher, John Hinckley Jr., and Kevin Roberts. The guy from the DFS Build, not this one. Or this one.
Anyway, on to the stuff!
Top MLB DFS Pitcher Plays (5/29)
- Zack Wheeler ($10,300, at LAD)
- Max Meyer ($9,800, at NYM)
- Shota Imanaga ($9,300, at STL)
- Freddy Peralta ($9,000, vs. MIA)
- George Kirby ($8,800, vs. AZ)
- MacKenzire Gore ($8,600, vs. KC)
- Stephen Kolek ($8,400, at TEX)
- Zac Gallen ($7,800, at SEA)
- Carlos Rodon ($7,700, at ATH)
- Nick Martinez ($7,600, vs. LAA)
It’s a decent pitching slate, but nobody truly stands out above the rest. Yes, Zack Wheeler is the best pitcher of the lot, but he’s also probably in the worst matchup on the road in Los Angeles. Wheeler has pitched well post-injury (25.5% Ks, 5.7% walks, 46.9% groundballs), but he’s not coming at any sort of a discount and this is a park downgrade for a matchup against one of the best lineups in the league. He is playable because he can still put up one of the slate’s better scores, but for $10,300, I’d prefer to Not Do That.
Max Meyer looks like he may garner some ownership in a matchup on the road against the Mets. THe Mets are, indeed, Very Bad, with a measly .120 ISO and a .285 wOBA vs. RHP. Meyer is solid (27.2% Ks, 8.8% walks, limited power allowed). His SIERA being a full run higher than his 2.45 ERA suggests he’ll regress, and the Mets, for all their faults, aren’t a high-K lot (20.5% vs. RHP). He’s another option I think is a little more expensive than he should be ($9,800), so that moves him down the list for me.
Shota Imanaga’s 25.7% strikeout rate is more in line with his rookie rate than last year’s poor 20.6% mark. Based on the swinging strike rate, I think 25% is around where he’ll settle in for the long haul. Imanaga is a flyball lefty getting a park upgrade going into St. Louis, where he’ll face a Cardinals lineup with only a couple of scary right-handed power bats. The downside is STL has been very high-contact vs. lefties (16.4%), so it’s not an ideal spot to be hunting ceiling from a $9,300 pitcher. Solid play. Not sure he’s a great one.
Freddy Peralta gets the Marlins on the other side of Meyer’s matchup. His 24% K-rate is down quite a bit from his career number (29.5%), while his 10.3% walk rate looks about right. Consistency has never been his strong suit, but he can rack up the whiffs when he’s right. Miami is a mix of low-strikeout and high-strikeout bats without much power (.137 ISO). It’s also nice to see he’s topped 100 pitches in 2 of the last 3 starts. For the dollar, I like Peralta the most among the $9,000+ options.
George Kirby checks in just below that at $8,800 for a home matchup against Arizona. Kirby has never been an elite K guy, and that’s been extra true (?) this season (19.8%). The DBax are also a pretty low-K matchup (19.4%) with some left-handed power to throw his way. The ballpark is nice, and I think Kirby’s strikeout rate should rise a little, but he’s more of a run-prevention guy than someone who’ll put up a score you can’t live without. Because the slate is murky on the pitching side I don’t mind him.
MacKenzie Gore is coming off the IL to face the Royals at home. Good pitcher’s park, and he’s a good source of strikeouts, but he’s also had some major control issues. I think a matchup against the righty-heavy Royals is a decent one given Gore’s reverse left-handed split, but Kansas City, while punchless, is also not striking out a whole lot (18.7%). I’d rather play Peralta or Kirby, but I suppose Gore has a little more ceiling than Kirby.
Stephen Kolek has a 2.77 ERA, though his 4.37 SIERA makes that ERA look very smoky and mirrory (?). This clown has a 14.3% strkeout rate. He’s just getting by on excellent control while avoiding walks and barrels. The Rangers are a butthole offense these days, but they have more talent on paper than their 2026 numbers would suggest. I guess he’s playable because he only needs to catch lightning in the bottle again tonight to be worth it, but Kolek is on #FraudWatch.
Zac Gallen seems washed enough to be a pure matchup play at this stage of his career. His strikeouts have tanked to 16.7%. While he’s still not allowing a shitload of damage, living off BABIP luck is a tough life. He gets a park upgrade going into Seattle and he’s only $7,800, but the Mariners are another team that’s simply better than they’ve shown so far. Gallen is a large-field option only.
Carlos Rodon looks like the most mispriced pitcher on the slate, so he’s probably going to be the chalk down here at $7,700 for a road matchup in Sacramento. That is a park downgrade, but Rodon is a good source of strikeouts (28.8%) who should see his control improve as he rounds back into form. The A’s do have some power hitters, but they also strike out at a healthy clip vs. LHP (26.7%). Playing the A’s on this slate certainly makes sense, but I can’t really poke many holes in playing Rodon given the salary hiccup.
Nick Martinez is an interesting one. He has seemingly always outperformed his peripherals, and he’s doing it again for the Tampa Bay Pitching Factory. His 1.51 ERA is obviously fake, especially compared to his 4.49 SIERA. His 14.9% strikeout rate is even low by his already-low standards, but he’s also just not allowing damage. Plus, it’s the Angels, one of the league’s highest-strikeout teams vs. right-handed pitching (25.3%). I probably won’t be taking a heavy stand on Martinez, but he will crack the player pool thanks to the cushy matchup.
SP Rankings
- Peralta
- Rodon
- Meyer
- Kirby
- Gore
- Imanaga
- Wheeler
- Martinez
- Gallen
- Kolek
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Friday
- Giants (at Michael Lorenzen)
- Yankees (at Luis Severino)
- Red Sox (at Slade Cecconi)
- White Sox (vs. Troy Melton)
- Tigers (at Erick Fedde)
- A’s (vs. Carlos Rodon)
- Blue Jays (at Trevor Rogers)
- Dodgers (vs. Zack Wheeler)
- Phillies (at Justin Wrobleski)
- Guardians (vs. opener/Brayan Bello)
Coors Field is back, this time with the Giants in town. Stoppable force, meet movable object. Michael Lorenzen will take the ball for the Rocks. This guy was bad before he arrived in Colorado. Shockingly, now that he’s pitching in the least-favorable context in the sport, he’s still bad.
Lorenzen has been lit on fire by left-handed hitters (.501 wOBA, .342 ISO, 17.2% barrels). His numbers are more respectable in general vs. RHBs, thanks to a solid 54% groundball rate. Rafael Devers is up there with the slate’s top overall hitters, but the Giants don’t have many other lefties of note. I do like Luis Arraez a decent amount now that he’s mixing some stolen bases into his game, while Bryce Eldridge is, allegedly, a power-hitting prospect. I’d prioritize Casey Schmitt and Willy Adames on the right side, next to Devers and Arraez. Matt Chapman, who Appears to Suck Now, will reluctantly be next on my list.
Luis Severino gets a #RevengeGame against the Yankees in his least-favorite ballpark, which happens to be his current home stadium. Lefties have had some success against the right-hander this year (12.1% barrels, .364 wOBA), and most of the Yankees’ better hitters are lefties (Grisham, Rice, Bellinger, Jazz). Aaron Judge is as good or better than any other bat on the slate, obviously. While I think the Giants may be chalky, we’ll probably see a fair bit of ownership flock to the Yanks.
Justin Wrobleski showed some strikeout stuff last year (27.1%). This year, he’s down to 13.7%. It appears to be deliberate. While he’s gotten good results (3.07 ERA), his 4.87 SIERA is among the worst on the slate. The Phillies don’t have the most exciting group of righties (Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Adolis Garcia, JT Realmuto), but this whole lineup is going to go completely overlooked. I’m happy to get to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in stacks, too. The Phillies aren’t a high-percentage stack on this slate – especially factoring in the Dodgers’ good bullpen – but I do think they have a better chance of winning you a GPP than their ownership will suggest.
How about the A’s against Rodon? He’s good, but hardly impervious to damage, especially considering his 23.3% walk rate vs. RHBs early in the year. I’d attack him with right-handed sluggers – Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, and Colby Thomas fit the bill – while Henry Bolte and Zack Gelof would be next up. I don’t mind a sneaky Nick Kurtz lefty-lefty, but I’d prioritize Bangeliers if I’m paying all the way up for one of ’em.
The White Sox are trotting Erick Fedde back out there, so I guess we have to pay attention to the Tigers. RHBs have smoked Fedde this season – good for Dillon Dingler and Spencer Torkelson – but I’m not scared of targeting a guy with a 15.5% K-rate vs. LHBs – Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle, Colt Keith.
Trevor Rogers was lights-out last season, but he’s been very lights-on this season. I don’t think that’s a real phrase, but maybe it should be. Right-handed hitters are destroying him, so it’s a great spot for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Kazuma Okamoto, and Ernie Clement atop the lineup for Toronto.
Slade Cecconi has a 4.29 SIERA compared to an ERA north of 5, but a 4.29 SIERA is pretty mid. Boston is never my favorite team to stack because they are Not Good, but the THE SIMS think Caleb Durbin and Isiah Kiner-Falefa are solid values, while I’m always ok with a mini stack of guys like Duran, Abreu, and Contreras.
The Guardians will face an opener before Brayan Bello cleans up after him. Bello has been giving up the ghost against LHBs (.266 ISO, .431 wOBA, 14.4% barrels), so Cleveland’s lefty-laden lineup looks pretty awesome here. Travis Bazzana, Jose Ramirez, Chase DeLauter, Kyle Manzardo, and Angel Martinez all have the platoon edge against Bello. Rhys Hoskins has also hit RHP pretty well this year.
Troy Melton may have some issues with lefties, so the White Sox star LHBs – Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery – look solid.
You can play some Dodgers, even against Zack Wheeler, because you can always play the Dodgers.
Other Things I Like
- Brewers LHBs vs. Teng – Yelich, Turang, Mitchell, Bauers
- Astros vs. Coleman Crow – Yordan, Paredes, Pena, Walker, Shewmake
- Orioles vs. opener/Voth – Henderson, Alonso, Rutschman, Basallo, Ward
- Occasional Rockies vs. Webb – Goodman, Rumfield, Castro, McCarthy
- Mariners LHBs vs. Gallen – Raley, Naylor, Crawford, Emerson, Canzone
- The Good Rays vs. “Walbert Urena” – Diaz, Caminero, Aranda
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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