Hello! Last night’s slate was Extremely Dumb, so we’ll see what tonight’s has in store. Surely, more tomfoolery is on the way. The highlight of this one is clearly the matchup between Miles Mikolas and Michael Lorenzen at Coors Field. These chaps do not belong in Major League rotations, and tonight they’ll square off on the moon. Should be a good time for all.
We don’t have as many aces as we had yesterday, which is probably a good thing, because Aces Love To Pitch Like Shit. Let’s talk about the stuff.
Top MLB DFS Pitcher Picks Today (7/21)
- Chase Burns ($11,500, at Mariners)
- Jack Perkins ($6,500, at DBax)
- Kumar Rocker ($6,400, vs. White Sox)
- Brandon Sproat ($7,300, vs. Mets)
- David Peterson ($5,500, vs. Tigers)
- Luinder Avila ($5,800, vs. Giants)
- Matthew Liberatore ($6,700, at Angels)
- Kohl Drake ($6,300, vs. A’s)
- Framber Valdez ($7,800, at Cubs)
- Luis Castillo ($7,600, vs. Reds)
Folks, this is disgusting. We had about 12 All-Star pitchers in the pool last night. Tonight? Pretty much none. I suppose that’s not the worst thing, as having all of these cheap pitchers makes it pretty easy to spend all the way up for the bats you want, but you’re not going to like your lineup regardless. Ranger Suarez was supposed to start for Boston, but he was scratched, leaving us short another viable option. Welp!
Chase Burns is the most expensive pitcher on the board, and $11,500 is super-duper expensive. I assume he will still generate ownership by default on such a nonsense pitching slate. He’s good (28.6% Ks, 3.60 SIERA), but he’s also had some control and power issues against LHBs. Seattle is projected to have 7 left-handed bats in there against him. At $11,500, you pretty much need this guy to rack up 25+ fantasy points. He can do that – Seattle is a very pitcher-friendly park – but I don’t think Burns’ chances of getting there warrant the spend. I suppose I would pick Burns if I had to choose which pitcher will wind up with the highest score, but I don’t think his score will be good enough to make him worthwhile. He’s a leftover for me.
I’m fine rolling around in the mud with some terrible pitchers instead, mainly for the savings. Jack Perkins (27.3% Ks, 3.53 SIERA) has given the A’s some good innings since moving into the rotation, and he’ll face a DBax offense that hasn’t hit for much power, especially with Corbin Carroll banged up (.144 ISO, .312 wOBA). Arizona isn’t a great matchup for Ks (18.4%), but I think Perkins is a decent real-life pitcher, and he’s only $6,500. I am guessing he’ll be among my higher-owned arms on this godforsaken hell-slate.
Brandon Sproat was a highly-ranked prospect when the Mets traded him to the Brewers for Freddy Peralta, and tonight he’ll start against his former mates. Sproat’s 24.6% strikeout rate for the season is decent, though walks (11%) and power (.199 ISO) have been his undoing. I will note that Sproat has been quite a bit better (30.8% Ks, 9% walks) over the last month. The Brewers are notorious for getting the most out of their pitchers, so the notion that he’s figuring it out isn’t really far-fetched.
The Mets are a generally neutral matchup these days (.160 ISO, .327 wOBA, 20.6% Ks). Most importantly, Sproat has some strikeout ability, and he’s only $7,300.
Kumar Rocker is another former top prospect who has looked better over the last 30 days. His K-rate is up to 27.3%, though he’s still yielding lots of power, especially to left-handed hitters. That’s a scary prospect against the White Sox and all of their left-handed power. There are some Ks here (22.5%), but I think I’d rather be on the Chicago side of this one. Rocker is still in play because he’s $6,400, but I feel better about some of the other options in this range.
I suppose that includes Matthew Liberatore, who gets to face the Angels team we love to pick on so much. Libby is about as average as it gets (21.4% Ks, 8.7% walks, 4.39 SIERA), but the Halos are one of the highest-strikeout lineups in baseball, even against LHP (23.8%). As is the case with Rocker, I think this is certainly something you can play both sides of, but the $6,700 price point keeps Liberatore squarely in play.
Luis Castillo ($7,600) could generate some attention in a #RevengeGame at home against the Reds. His skills have steadily waned over the past couple of years, and he’s now down to just 20.8% Ks, while the high groundball rate he had earlier in his career has evaporated. His 4.23 SIERA tells us his 5.00 ERA is on the unlucky side. Cincinnati will strike out with the best of ’em (24.3%). They’re also a very righty-heavy lineup, which boosts Castillo given his issues against LHBs. If he can navigate Elly De La Cruz and JJ Bleday, he should be fine. $7,600 is a reasonable enough asking price. I think ownership is the primary stumbling block here, as nothing about Castillo’s skill set suggests he’s worthy of the popularity he’ll likely have on this slate. He’s fine, but I also don’t think he’s so much better than the similarly-priced alternatives to warrant 35-50% ownership.
Framber Valdez is a solid alternative for just $200 more. He’s another veteran whose strikeout rate has dipped this season (18.6%), but he’s also still a good source of groundballs who won’t allow much power. The Cubs (.162 ISO, .337 wOBA, 21.5% Ks) are a decent matchup for a southpaw. The wind in Wrigley is also more pitcher-friendly tonight. If Valdez is 10% owned and Castillo is 40% owned, I know which one I’m playing.
“Kohl Drake” sure sounds like a kid who grew up rich. He is Arizona’s 10th-ranked prospect, and this will be his MLB debut. He doesn’t look great. He had some control problems at the lower levels, while he may be about average from a strikeouts standpoint. On the flip side, he’s $6,300, and the A’s are watered-down without Nick Kurtz or Brent Rooker. What’s left is a pretty low-K lineup (21.3%), and they have hit for some power against lefties, though several of those hitters have very small sample sizes at the MLB level this year. I think Drake is a fine enough option, though I won’t have heavy investment here.
Luinder Avila and David Peterson are bad, but they’re also both under $6,000. Do with that information what you will.
SP Rankings
- Perkins
- Sproat
- Valdez
- Liberatore
- Rocker
- Castillo
- Drake
- Burns
- Peterson
- Avila
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Tuesday (7/21)
- Nationals (vs. Michael Lorenzen)
- Rockies (vs. Miles Mikolas)
- Giants (at Luinder Avila)
- Mets (at Brandon Sproat)
- DBax (vs. Jack Perkins)
- Marlins (at Tatsuya Imai)
- Astros (vs. Tyler Phillips)
- Cardinals (at Walbert Urena)
- Angels (vs. Matthew Liberatore)
- White Sox (at Kumar Rocker)
Yankees-Pirates was postponed, which eliminates a couple of the slate’s more intriguing offenses. We have to start with that aforementioned Coors game, though, which features a hefty 13-run total that probably is not high enough.
The Nationals will use an opener before getting to Miles Mikolas, who has inexplicably retained a spot in their rotation all year. Mikolas’ K-rate for the season is a measly 12.5%. Over the last 30 days, it’s down at 8%. Wack. He’s also allowing a ton of power to hitters from both sides. He does generate groundballs with good control, but he’s entirely reliant on the BABIP gods smiling down upon him to have any success.
The Rockies have also been pretty potent offensively against right-handed pitching. Collectively, they’re sporting a .203 ISO with a .348 wOBA. Even if they’ll face a lefty opener, I’m still all about ’em tonight. Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak, Hunter Goodman, TJ Rumfield, Kyle Karros, and Cole Carrigg all have legitimately good numbers. I don’t see much need to mess around with the bottom of the order, but that’s always viable if full stacking.
I assume Washington will be the chalk, as the visitors at Coors usually are. Lorenzen’s numbers are awfully similar to Mikolas’, albeit with way worse control against lefties, in particular. He has actually done a decent job of limiting power to righties, for whatever that’s worth. James Wood, CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia, and Daylen Lile are your obvious headliners from the left side, though Curtis Mead has raked same-handed pitching this season. I do not expect Andres Chaparro to start this game, but if he does, he’s cheap.
I’m guessing you won’t have to consider ownership if you’re playing anything outside of Colorado. The Giants stunk it up yesterday, but they’re in a more favorable spot tonight against the crappy Luinder Avila. His walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate against right-handed hitters. Whatever righties he hasn’t walked have hit him well to the tune of a .208 ISO and a .414 wOBA. Casey Schmitt, Willy Adames, and Heliot Ramos look like the standouts, though I’ll always play one of Rafael Devers or Bryce Eldridge in a full stack.
I’m playing Sproat and Liberatore, but the offenses on the other side look interesting, too. Sproat is another guy yielding more damage to righties, though it’s not like his numbers against LHBs are much better. I’m always starting with Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor if stacking the Mets, followed by AJ Ewing, Bo Bichette, Carson Benge, and Jared Young. Francisco Alvarez is a great way to fill C.
Lefties have done more damage against Libby, but the best Angels are the RHBs – Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Jo Adell, Jorge Soler, and Vaughn Grissom. Denzer Guzman has a .241 ISO this year vs. RHP, too.
I think you can also play Rocker, but a .211 ISO and 10.3% barrel rate vs. LHBs makes Munetaka Murakami, Sam Antonacci, Tristan Peters, Andrew Benintendi, and Various Montgomerys look pretty good, too.
Both pitchers in the MIA-HOU game are volatile. Tatsuya Imai has wonky control but decent numbers against righties. He has wonky control and bad numbers against lefties. I’m into Kyle Stowers, Liam Hicks, Griffin Conine, Joe Mack, and Xavier Edwards here. Otto Lopez still good from the right side.
Tyler Phillips can keep the ball on the ground, but that’s about it, especially against LHBs. Yordan Alvarez is possibly the slate’s top overall hitter outside of Coors. Nothing else looks great here, though.
Arizona without Carroll isn’t super appealing. I like Perkins as much as any other pitcher on the slate, but he’s another guy yielding lots of power to same-handed hitters. I’ll play Ketel Marte against anybody. I suppose Nolan Arenado, Gabriel Moreno, Ryan Waldschmidt, and Max Kepler would be next, but meh. Similar to the Astros.
Walbert Urena’s high groundball rate makes it tough to stack against him. I’m not crazy about a St. Louis full stack as a result, but mini-ing Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, and JJ Wetherholt is on my radar.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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