Week 6 is already here. We’ve got just a couple of teams on bye, but this slate is yet another lacking elite QBs. Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Jayden Daniels are all playing primetime games, while Lamar Jackson’s still out injured. Ditto for the Lions, which takes another high-end offense off the board.
So, it should be an interesting Sunday NFL DFS main slate. Pricing on DraftKings looks a little tighter than it’s been for much of the year, as well. There’s still money to be made, though, so let’s do a deeper dive into a few of my favorite stacking targets for GPPs.
Off we go!
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers
I was interested in stacking the Panthers last week against Miami. We got pretty mixed results. Bryce Young was not terrible, but not great. Tetaroia McMillan was not terrible, but not great. Young threw a game-winning touchdown pass to an anonymous 8th-string tight end – which was not ideal – but it’s fine. Rico Dowdle was a slate-breaker, rushing for over 200 yards at $4,300 in a starting role with Chuba Hubbard sidelined. Chuba’s still missing practices as of this writing, so it’s looking increasingly likely we’ll get another Dowdle start. This time, he’s up to $5,800 for a revenge matchup against the Cowboys.
Speaking of the Cowboys, that’s the reason the Panthers are back on my radar. On the season, Dallas ranks 32nd in overall EPA defensively, ranking 31st against both the pass and the run. They looked a little better for most of last week’s win over the Jets, but I’m not willing to call them the next Iron Curtain just yet. We’re paying more for Dowdle than we did last week, and we’re certainly not going out there expecting another 200-yard smashfest. That said, he played 67% of the snaps last week and racked up 23 of the Panthers’ 27 running back carries. Trevor Etienne barely saw the field. If Chuba were $5,800 in this spot, we’d probably be playing him. As of now, Rico looks like a terrific play yet again.
I suspect Dowdle won’t fly under the radar, but I’m interested to see the ownership for the Young + McMillan stack. On the year, McMillan has 24 catches on 43 targetys for 351 yards. The 25.3% target share is terrific, but he has yet to find the end zone. The TDs will show up eventually, even if Bryce is awful. $6,000 is still cheap for a guy in that kind of role. The rookie is 8th in air yards among WRs and first in third in air yards share, so the volume is good.
Young, meanwhile, is just $4,800 after he was $4,700 a week ago. I don’t think you really need to get crazy messing with cheap dudes like Xavier Legette or Tommy Tremble in stacks. People don’t ever want to play Young, so there’s your ownership edge. Given Dowdle’s workload and the plus matchup in every regard, I have no qualms with playing Young, Dowdle, and McMillan in the same lineup.
Let’s not overlook the Dallas side, of course. For all of their defensive issues, their offense looks pretty legit, even without CeeDee Lamb. Carolina’s defense hasn’t been quite as porous as that of the Cowboys, but they’re still just 21st in total EPA, and they profile to be worse against the pass than the run.
Lamb’s absence has a trickle-down effect. George Pickens and Jake Ferguson are the primary beneficiaries. We saw Ryan Fluornoy pop up with a huge game last week with KaVontae Turpin also missing from the Dallas lineup, racking up over 100 yards on 6 catches. Fluornoy ate more into Pickens than he did Ferguson, and he’s still only $3,600 with Turpin likely out again this week. Jalen Tolbert was quiet, but he’s $100 cheaper than Flournoy and is projecting for a fraction of the ownership. I think they’re all playable, and I don’t think pivoting from a chalky Fluornoy to an unowned Tolbert is a crazy move in Dallas passing stacks.
I mentioned Carolina being a bit better against the run, but they’re still not all that stingy in that regard. Javonte Williams ($6,400) is having a terrific season, and Miles Sanders looks likely to miss a 2nd straight game. Williams is projecting for some ownership, but I love the idea of running him in a game-stack alongside the Carolina passing duo.
Young + Williams + McMillan OR Dak + Dowdle + 2 pass catchers (Pickens/Fluornoy/Tolbert + Ferguson) are fun ways to build for this game if you think it shoots out.
New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints
I can’t imagine anyone who doesn’t play DFS will be locked into watching Patriots at Saints, but it’s a pretty fun potential game environment. New England is favored by 3.5 on the road with a solid 24.5 implied team total.
Drake Maye ($5,900) looks like the real deal. The salary is on the rise, but $5,900 is a solid deal for a QB offering legit 2-way upside. New Orleans’ defense hasn’t been a tire fire, but they’re another group that looks more exploitable through the air. Plus, the Pats go into the dome for this one, which is always helpful for expected offensive output.
Maye runs enough to where you don’t really have to stack him if you don’t want to. Stefon Diggs ($5,800) finally had that breakout game last week, and he does lead the Pats in target share (22.8%). It feels like a bit of a chase, but a guy like Diggs generally profiles better in DK’s PPR format. He’s the natural top stacking partner with Maye, slightly ahead of Hunter Henry ($4,300). Double stacks are totally viable here, though my interest in rolling the dice on any of the sub-$4,000 WRs is minimal.
As much as I’d like to be on TreVeyon Henderson for the eventual breakout, the Patriots continue to trot out an annoying amount of Rhamondre Stevenson.
You may have thought Bryce Young and friends would be my Vomit Stack of the Week, but not so fast, my friends. Nobody’s going to play the other side of this game aside from Chris Olave, but the Patriots are not beating worlds defensively. They’re 22nd in EPA, including 26th against the pass and 25th against the run. Vegas thinks the Saints are scoring 3 touchdowns in this game, so we should probably have at least some interest.
Olave ($5,100) projects for about 20% ownership. The production hasn’t really been there (244 yards on 33 catches), but he’s seeing over 31% of Spencer Rattler’s targets! Puka Nacua (62) is the only player with more looks than Olave’s 54 through 5 games. Only 35 of those 54 targets have been deemed catchable – which is a pretty clear Rattler indictment – but you’ll take that kinda volume at $5,100 all day.
People are playing Olave, but they’re not brave enough to stack him with Rattler ($4,700). Because the Saints have been most often playing from behind, Rattler is 5th in the league in pass attempts. He’s been Captain Checkdown for the most part, but New England’s pressure rate on opposing QBs (36.7%) ranks in the bottom-third of the league.
Rashid Shaheed ($4,600) is all-or-nothing, but he’s priced accordingly. Shaheed is the epitome of a GPP play, as he’s essentially gotta house one of the 4-5 touches he may get. If anyone’s on him after a big Week 5, you can avoid him.
Juwan Johnson ($3,300) is still cheap, but it’s over for this guy. He’s been targeted on just 11% of his routes over the last 2 games, and the Saints are running weird shit with Taysom Hill and Foster Moreau both back in the lineup. Hard pass.
Alvin Kamara ($5,700) is getting cheaper and cheaper, but it’s worth noting he logged a season-low 56% of the snaps last week against the Giants with Kendre Miller getting more time on the field. Kamara’s been dealing with an ankle injury, and he hasn’t scored a TD since the first game of the year. It’s not a comfortable click, but I can get behind a Kamara buy-low as a part of your New England passing stacks.
Maye + Kamara + Diggs + Henry is a nice little game stack. I’m less inclined to run it back with a Patriot if stacking Rattler + Olave, however.
Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers
Unfortunately, Rattler and Young aren’t the cheapest QBs on the slate. That’s because Joe Flacco ($4,000) is back in our lives. He’ll make his debut for the Bengals on Sunday after arriving from the Browns via a midweek trade. Flacco’s alraedy beaten the Packers once this season, and this time, he’ll have better weapons at his disposal.
This isn’t quite as exciting when we had the $4,000 Mac Jones/Marcus Mariota/Carson Wentz situations, but $4,000 for a QB is still an error. He projects for like 14 fantasy points. Not great relative to other QBs, but we don’t have to compare him to other QBs. Let’s look at the other options in his price range:
Flacco is a statue and doesn’t offer any rushing upside, but a $4,000 player at any other position projecting for 14 fantasy points would be extreme chalk on this slate. Flacco may be 1% owned on the main slate. While he won’t be my highest-owned QB, I will likely be substantially over the field on him, especially in multi-entry tournaments.
Because he’s min-salary, you can treat Flacco like a FLEX position player and simply play him naked for the salary relief and load up elsewhere. The stack looks good, too, though, because the partners – Ja’Marr Chase ($7,700) and Tee Higgins ($5,700) – are obvious and terrific. Chase is a player who should always be in your GPP player pool, as we’ve seen him shatter slates even with shitty QBs. Look no further than last week.
The Bengals’ offense has issues, but their defense is a fucking tragedy. They’re 27th in EPA – 28th against the run and 24th through the air. Running a Cincy stack back with Josh Jacobs ($7,300) sure looks like a good time in one of the best possible matchups. Jacobs will be chalky, but nobody’s pairing him with Bengals stacks. Except sickos, like me.
The Packers’ passing attack is generally tough to figure out because they have approximately 63 wide receivers. Green Bay’s 29-point total is the highest on the slate, but Jacobs and Tucker Kraft ($4,700) are the only Packers projecting for any ownership. Expecting Jacobs to account for some of the scoring is a reasonable bet, but…what if he doesn’t? It’s hard to imagine the Packers totally shitting the bed in such a great spot, so why not play Jordan Love, especially on such a thin slate for QBs?
Kraft is the obvious stacking partner, but in large-field stuff I think you can roll the dice on Romeo Doubs ($5,200) and Matthew Golden ($5,000) in stacks. I even think playing Love + Jacobs + Kraft can be +EV if the Packers really break the slate. Ja’Marr is the preferred bringback there, IMO.
A Few Other Game Stacks I Like
I didn’t really know what to call this section, so let’s go with that. This slate is pretty stacked, and there are several other ways to build high-upside, correlated game stacks. Here are a few others:
Chargers at Dolphins
- Justin Herbert + De’Von Achane OR Jaylen Waddle + Quentin Johnston + Keenan Allen OR Ladd McConkey + Darren Waller
- Tua Tagovailoa + Darren Waller + Johnston OR Allen OR McConkey
Cardinals at Colts
- Kyler Murray + Jonathan Taylor + Trey McBride OR Marvin Harrison Jr.
- Daniel Jones + Michael Pittman Jr. OR Tyler Warren + Trey McBride
49ers at Bucs
- Baker Mayfield + Christian McCaffrey + Rachaad White + Emeka Egbuka
- Mac Jones + Christian McCaffrey + Rachaad White + Ricky Pearsall
Seahawks at Jaguars
- Trevor Lawrence + Brian Thomas Jr. + Jaxon Smith Njigba
- Sam Darnold + Travis Etienne + Jaxon Smith-Njigba + Brian Thomas Jr. OR Hunter Long
Summary
I didn’t mean for this to turn into an epic, long-winded rant, but I kinda love this slate? There are seemingly countless ways to build high-upside correlated lineups without straying too far off the ownership path. If you’re doing things like stacking the Saints’ or Bengals’ passing attacks, you can essentially eat chalk in your remaining lineup spots if you’re so inclined.
Good luck, friendos.
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