Hello, and Happy Friday. I’m off work today, which is nice. So far I have replaced a garage door lightbulb and screwed a knob back into a bathroom cabinet door. I’m not saying the race for Husband of the Year 2026 is already over, but it is already over.
And that’s why I will continue to oppose teen alcoholism in all its forms. Now, on to the baseball.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers for Friday
- Chris Sale ($10,700, vs. DBax)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($10,500, vs. Brewers)
- Gavin Williams ($10,200, vs. Padres)
- Gerrit Cole ($9,700, at Blue Jays)
- George Kirby ($8,700, at Astros)
- Landen Roupp ($7,500, vs. Rockies)
- Gage Jump ($7,000, vs. Rangers)
- Seth Lugo ($6,900, at Angels)
- Grayson Rodriguez ($5,700, vs. Royals)
- Kyle Freeland ($5,500, at Giants)
Pretty good pitching slate! Chris Sale continues apace as one of the game’s most steadily dominant pitchers. His K-rate for the season is back over 30% along with the usual low walks, high groundballs, and limited damage. The issue here is that he’s $10,700 and facing an Arizona lineup with a very low team strikeout rate (15.5%) against LHP. I fully expect Sale to post a fine outing here and I won’t be fading him completely, but it’s not an optimal spot to be paying nearly $11,000 for him.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (23.8% Ks, 5.8% walks, 46.8% groundballs) is also quite steady, though he’s more real-life great than DFS great, for the most part. The Brewers (22.5% Ks, .153 ISO, .324 wOBA vs. RHP) are not an imposing offense, and Yamamoto’s splits are about as neutral as they come. The only Brewer hitting for a lot of power this season is Jake Bauers, for some reason. They’re more strikeout-prone than the DBax, so I do prefer Yama to Sale if I’m paying up in this range.
Gavin Williams ($10,200) will probably be the chalkiest of the three for a home date against the Padres. Williams is having a breakout season (32.2% Ks, 45.3% groundballs, 7.1% walks), and he’s been absolutely unbelievable over the last month (45.1% Ks, 3.5% walks). It seems the control issues he’s had in the past are, in fact, in the past. The Padres aren’t a great offense (20.1% Ks, .162 ISO, .317 wOBA vs. RHP), though they are quite patient. I suppose there’s a chance Williams’ old walk issues turn back up here as a result, but I’m not all that concerned. Their lineup quality is about on par with that of the Brewers. I see him as about the same as Yamamoto, and I’ll rank both of them ahead of Sale tonight.
Gerrit Cole (26.4% Ks, 5.2% walks, 3.43 SIERA) has pitched well for the most part since returning from injury. While the Blue Jays are a pathetic offense (.142 ISO, .311 wOBA vs. RHP), they do make contact (17.9% Ks vs. RHP). While Cole is still very good, I also think he’s a bit fortunate to have a K-rate as high as it is. My interest level is low here.
George Kirby and the rest of the Mariners’ starters haven’t been as consistently good on the road, and tonight, he’ll pitch in Houston. Kirby has never really been a DFS dynamo thanks to his average strikeout stuff, though he typically pitches deep into games and limits damage. Like a right-handed Max Fried or something. The Astros (.198 ISO, .346 wOBA) have been quite impressive offensively despite having a few randos in the lineup every night. I like that they only have a few lefties in there, as Kirby has shown more strikeout stuff (23.4%) against same-handed bats. I have more interest in Kirby than I do in Cole, especially with Kirby being $1,000 cheaper. Still not a core play or anything, though.
Landen Roupp gets to face the Rockies in San Francisco. The Rockies against a right-hander away from Coors isn’t quite the cakewalk of a matchup it used to be, as they’ve posted a .211 ISO and a .342 wOBA vs. RHP this season. They do still strike out at a solid 22.8% clip, though. Roupp (23.6% Ks, 10.9% walks, 4.19 SIERA) is pretty average in most regards. He does have an above-average 50.2% groundball rate, and he’s gotten GBs from hitters from both sides. Colorado isn’t a high-groundball lineup, but they also have just a 3.57 implied run total in a pitcher-friendly yard. Plus, Roupp is reasonably cheap at $7,500. I’m in on this…unfortunately.
Gage Jump looks like he’ll be chalky for a matchup at home against the Rangers. It’s a little surprising to see an A’s pitcher getting ownership in his hitter-friendly home park, but Jump has pitched well (26.7% Ks, 10.5% walks, 3.89 SIERA). The Rangers have also been a high-strikeout bunch (24.5%) against lefties, though they have also hit for some power (.187 ISO, .339 wOBA). I don’t think this is particularly great chalk, but Jump is also just $7,000 as one of the highest-strikeout arms on the board, so I get it.
I don’t remember the last time I played Seth Lugo, because it has probably been a very long time since I’ve played Seth Lugo. Seth Lugo most often does not pitch against the Angels, though, and tonight, Seth Lugo does pitch against the Angels. Seth Lugo is pretty average (18.2% Ks, 4.60 SIERA), but just about any pitcher is viable if they’re facing the Angels (23.1% Ks, .154 ISO vs. RHP). Lugo isn’t my favorite cheap pitcher, but he is cheap, and he is a pitcher.
Grayson Rodriguez on the other side of this matchup is a little more compelling. This is a former top prospect working his way back from major injury. It’s been a rough go, for the most part, and a 19.7% K-rate, 10.2% walk rate, and 4.73 SIERA doesn’t instill much confidence. He does have a double-digit swinging strike rate, though, which is higher than Gerrit Cole’s, so the low K-rate is a bit unlucky. Over the last month, G-Rod is up to 23.9% Ks and down to 8.3% walks. Not amazing, but pretty good, even if he is still yielding plenty of power.
The Royals aren’t particularly good offensively (.168 ISO, .313 wOBA vs. RHP), and I expect Rodriguez to continue to round into form. Most importantly, he’s only $5,700. I am confident he’s better than a $5,700 pitcher, especially in this matchup.
For $200 less than Rodriguez, we also have Kyle Freeland getting a park upgrade going into San Francisco. Freeland’s ERA is over 6 this year, which looks wildly unlucky next to a 4.18 SIERA. Freeland’s 18.9% strikeout rate is obviously weak, but he does have elite control. We should also take a gander at this Giants lineup he’s facing tonight:
Buddy. Lots of small-sample noise in there, but the results are Not Good for these guys against lefties. Freeland will have the platoon advantage over the Giants’ most imposing bats – Bryce Eldridge and Rafael Devers. San Francisco has a 3.93 total in this game. The Royals are at 4.3, the Rangers are at 4.75, and the Angels are at 4.2. I’m not telling you to play Kyle Freeland, but I am telling you that I’m playing Kyle Freeland.
SP Rankings
- Yamamoto
- Williams
- Roupp
- Freeland
- Rodriguez
- Sale
- Jump
- Kirby
- Lugo
- Cole
Best MLB DFS Stacks for Friday
- Braves (vs. Brandon Pfaadt)
- Yankees (at Shane Bieber)
- Nationals (at Bob Stock)
- Orioles (at Steven Matz)
- Mets (vs. Andrew Alvarez)
- Rays (vs. Chris Bassitt)
- Rangers (at Gage Jump)
- Royals (at Grayson Rodriguez)
- Mariners (at Peter Lambert)
At first glance, the offensive side of things doesn’t have a standout. Maybe that’ll be good for ownership. One team I do think is fairly likely to be chalky is the Nationals despite a park downgrade going into Citi Field. That’s because they’ll face the lowly Robert Stock, an old man who is, for some reason, in the Mets’ rotation now. This old man is younger than me, but he’s old for his job, so, for all intents and purposes, he’s older than me.
Left-handed hitters have a career .377 wOBA against this guy. James Wood is out injured, but the Nats still have quite a few good lefties to throw at him atop the lineup. CJ Abrams is the clear standout, while Abimelec Ortiz has raked righties in a limited sample. Daylen Lile, Jose Tena, and Keibert Ruiz have solid numbers, too. It’s a good stack, but not necessarily great as chalk.
The Braves will face Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt has limited power better since his return from the minors, though he has just a 10.4% strikeout rate in that span. I guess he’s on the Nick Martinez Plan, but I’m not buying it at all. Ronald Acuna Jr., Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Michael Harris, and Austin Riley have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP on the year.
The Yankees face ex-ace Shane Bieber, who is no longer anything resembling an ace. Kinda like how I am a former infant. It was once true, but it is no longer true, as I have aged out of infancy. Bieber has really gotten smashed by LHBs (.235 ISO, .342 wOBA), which is ideal for the Yankees and their sea of lefties – Trent Grisham, Ben Rice, Luis Garcia, Spencer Jones, Jazz Chisholm, Ryan McMahon. It’s not like Bieber’s numbers are much better against right-handed bats.
A couple more olds – Steven Matz and Chris Bassitt – will square off in Tampa. Matz is probably more of an opener after returning from injury, so I’m not in love with the Baltimore side. Maybe the RHBs can do some damage against him early – Pete Alonso, Tyler O’Neill, Coby Mayo. Bassitt is also returning from injury. Lefties have pounded him over the past couple of years. Not a ton to love here from the left side, but some combination of Jonathan Aranda/Liam Hicks/Victor Mesa/Cedric Mullins is fine. Junior Caminero, always more than fine.
I’m playing some Jump, but since he’ll be chalky in a homer-friendly park, I’m also playing some of the Rangers. Righties are preferred – Wyatt Langford, Ezequiel Duran, Jake Burger. Corey Seager has good career numbers vs. LHP.
There’s certainly a chance The Bad Grayson Rodriguez shows up, and the Royals do get a park boost going into Anaheim here. I like a Carter Jensen/Bobby Witt Jr./Jac Caglianone mini.
Peter Lambert has pitched well, but he’s had pretty staunch reverse splits, and the ballpark in Houston is always good for righty power. Sneaky spot for Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, and Taylor Ward.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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