Best NBA DFS Picks - Top Plays & Strategy (Friday, 3/27)

The NBA took it easy last night thanks to MLB Opening Day, but it’s back in full force with a 7-game main slate at DraftKings on Friday. Nikola Jokic heads an interesting slate, and he will be the first key decision we’ll want to make when building lineups.

I take care of some of the work for you with the NBA DFS Core Plays, which were absolutely on fire last night. They’ve been pretty darn good for the past week, but last night Banchero, Duren, and Jenkins all smashed. I also handed out some GPP picks. KAT was horrendous, but Brunson smashed and Knueppel was the play of the day (55 fps at just $6.6k). Today is another day to win. Let’s build!

🏀 Slate Overview

Top injury news to monitor: Jarrett Allen.

Best value plays: Jeremiah Fears. No Murphy or Dejounte.

Top game to attack: Heat/Cavs. 242.5 total and 6 pt spread.

Top stud: Jokic. Next closest projection is (GULP) 20 points away.

Blowout risks: Yeah, a lot of them. FIVE games have 10+ pt spreads. EVERY game has 6+ or higher.

NBA DFS Top Picks for Wednesday

Jayson Tatum ($9k)
Payton Pritchard ($6.2k)
Reed Sheppard ($6.1k)

Update: Swapped Zion for Tatum. Just feel like the matchup is poor for Zion and he’s not grading out how I’d like. Tatum looks like a smash. Celtics heavy might just be The Way. Tatum/Pritchard is how I’d start, but if you can get to White and one of the values (Baylor/Hauser), I’d try to. The big question from here is “to Jokic or not to Jokic”. Personally, I am fading. I’ll combine my core with a GPP pick (likely Sengun). But Jokic is obviously a total smash.

🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.

It’s early and there are a lot of good plays, but this doesn’t lock you out of anything you want to do. You can use this core to go get Jokic, or you can go more balanced with guys like Tatum/Sengun. Nembhard is also a play you can tack on here, or you can go get values like Fears/GG/Hauser – the list goes on.

The Pels have a pretty gross matchup with Toronto, but volume is king. Zion has the offense all to himself, so assuming he’s aggressive he is way too cheap even in a suboptimal spot vs. the Raptors. You can make a case for other New Orleans options, but with both Dejounte and Murphy sidelined, he’s a tough fade at this salary.

Jeremiah Fears is a strong value, but we’re getting guard heavy here. Not trying to lock you up, so Fears/Poeltl both look like fantastic values. Just comes down to how you’re building and who you’re prioritizing.

Boston is without Jaylen Brown, so we can absolutely go get Tatum or Derrick White, but Pritchard is the best P/$ play they have to offer up top and the Hawks are a fast-paced team. There’s a case to be made to go get Hauser/Scheierman instead since they’re so cheap, but Pritchard looks quite good.

Sheppard is basically the same play, but I like just pairing him and Pritchard together. He’s starting, locked into a good role, and gets a bad Memphis defense. Sheppard has been ice cold, but once he actually starts hitting his shots he’s going to nuke.

Strategy

Jokic is the best spend of the slate. We should probably just play him, but there’s edge in fading if his game against Utah gets out of hand. If it does, he might only get 60 fantasy points and that probably wouldn’t be enough at his $12.5k salary.

There’s also the argument that there are simply too many great secondary plays. Tatum, Bam, and Sengun stand out the most, but there’s even Kawhi/Jalen/SGA – all of which can easily get you 50+ and are $2k cheaper than The Joker.

🟢 SAFE – Zion. He should have enough usage to avoid a total flatline at this salary.

🟡 BOOM/BUST – Sheppard/Pritchard. Perimeter oriented players with low floors but high ceilings with extra volume in terrific spots/

Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 3/26

🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.

Hawks/Celtics (226.5)
Heat/Cavs (242.5)
Jazz/Nuggets (248.5)

Dare we just load up on the last game of the night? It feels gross, but hey, it does have the highest total and if Utah can keep it competitive we’d get a full Jokic. I doubt it actually stays close, but we can dream.

The Hawks and Celtics game should stay close with Jaylen Brown out, while his absence also provides a hit to their defense. I think this game leans more into shootout territory now.

I don’t personally want to aggressively stack the Heat game, but they have the 2nd best total of the slate and the 2nd tightest spread. Lot’s of fine options here, but no real priority that stands out beyond the environment we’re lusting after.

Honestly, this isn’t a slate we need to stack on. Pretty much every game has blowout risk, so I’d just make smart decisions, play good plays, and look for a couple of spots for leverage.

Thursday’s NBA DFS GPP Pivots

🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.

SGA ($10.3k)
Jalen Johnson ($10.7k)
Sengun ($8.9k)

Jokic is $12.5k and SGA is $2k cheaper and in just as smashy of a spot. Jokic is the way better play, but the savings and ownership make SGA a lot more inviting than normal. He also happens to own the 2nd best projection of the slate.

Jalen is less safe than SGA, but he also won’t be owned. His matchup stinks, but his game is a lot more likely to give him 4 quarters of play and his versatile game makes him a 60+ fps threat.

Sengun is pulling ownership, but I tend to think the Murphy/Jaylen news changes that. You can’t exactly fill out a roster of Jokic/Tatum/Zion AND Sengun. I think he’s a Tatum pivot or Jokic leverage. I am not as psyched to eat the chalk here, but if his ownership plummets like I believe it will, he’s a cornerstone for me where I’m not paying for Jokic.

🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?

If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:

Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays that are garnering lower ownership.
Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.