The stakes couldn’t be much higher for Tuesday’s Game 5 between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves, as the series shifts back to San Antonio with both teams looking to seize control.
From a DraftKings NBA DFS showdown perspective, this slate is loaded with star power, intriguing value plays, and massive leverage opportunities for tournaments. Showdown slates are highly volatile and it’s best to refrain from a true “core”, but I’ll go over this game and hand out my favorite Captain picks, some low-owned options we should like, and my general strategy.
Of course, much of the spotlight remains on Victor Wembanyama after many around the league felt he was fortunate to avoid a suspension following the physical ending to Game 4. Don’t be surprised if Minnesota comes out looking to test him early with an especially aggressive approach on both ends of the floor.
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Okay, let’s get to this slate. First, let’s see which Captain picks stand out the most.
Top DraftKings Captain Picks for Game 5
- Wemby ($12k)
- Anthony Edwards ($10k)
- Stephon Castle ($8.8k)
These are the top guys in terms of projection, price, and ceiling. Wemby obviously takes the cake, and apparently he can elbow people in the throat and get away with it. So, he’s untouchable, and he has the top projection by quite a bit.
Wemby is the safest Captain pick, as nobody comes within 21 fantasy points of him. But is he landing in the Captain slot the most? You might want to give our DFS lineup builder a tool to find out for yourself:
You don’t really need to know how much exposure Wemby is getting to know he’s a good play. The only issue here is he’s expensive, so while we probably want Wemby in our DraftKings Showdown lineups in some manner most of the time, we don’t need to Captain him everywhere.
That brings us to ANT, who is $2k cheaper and offers a significant floor and ceiling. He was less than 100% to start this series, but he has exploded lately, logging 40+ minutes, while dropping 32+ real points in consecutive games.
Right now ANT is my preferred Captain to build around. The floor, minutes, ceiling, projection, usage – all of it looks great and he costs way less than Wemby. I think pairing them together (if a core were a thing in Showdown contests) would be my core.
There’s also Castle, who is awesome leverage on Wemby, depending on where ownership lands. Castle isn’t cheap, but he’s less expensive than Edwards, is playing well, and will get big minutes in a close game.
Wemby’s ownership will be extremely high across the board, and Castle should be comparison be less owned. If we’re aggressive with his exposure, that could give us an edge. Just keep an eye on De’Aaron Fox (Q), as him missing this game would boost Castle’s ownership.
GPP Picks for the Captain Spot
- Dylan Harper ($8.1k)
- Naz Reid ($9.9k)
- Devin Vassell ($9k)
Fox is questionable. I’d imagine he plays and he’s a fine play if active, but if he’s out both Wemby and Castle get a sizable usage and ceiling boost. But so do a lot of Spurs, namely Dylan Harper, who went off for 39 fantasy points last game.
I love Harper as a GPP Captain pick based on current ownership anyways, but if Fox is ruled out his upside is way too good to ignore. That may keep him from being sneaky, but he’d still be a great play no matter where you use him.
Vassell or perhaps even Keldon Johnson could then quickly heat up as low-owned options that get a usage spike and could be quite viable. Champaigne is also in the conversation, but based on the expected minutes, Vassell is the one I’d look to first.
On the other side, guys like Jaden McDaniels, Ayo Dosunmu, Julius Randle and Rudy Gobert are all going to be in play as tourney pivots. Why? Because NBA DraftKings Showdown lineups are naturally going to be Spurs heavy or they’ll first include ANT.
Naz Reid might be my favorite non-ANT Timberwolves pick to look at first, as he has a personal narrative after getting clocked by Wemby’s elbow last game.
Reid was already in play, as he is getting 30 minutes with 20% usage in close games in this series. As if he needed more incentive to play well, Reid may be even more aggressive and end up smashing his price tag.
Best NBA DFS Value Picks for 5/12
- Keldon Johnson ($3k)
- Terrence Shannon Jr. ($3.6k)
Carter Bryant would see more burn if Fox sits out or the game gets out of hand. Mike Conley and Luke Kornet are veterans that could also see their roles grow. But if we’re talking about somewhat reliable value, I think we need to start with KJ and Shannon.
KJ was the 6th Man of the Year winner for a reason, and he is still getting 16+ minutes per game in this series. His scoring has been inconsistent, but if he catches fire he can smash his salary and help build a winner. He currently grades out as the 2nd best pure value per our tool.
There’s also Shannon, who is a little more expensive, but could see more minutes. His role has gone down with Minnesota getting healthier by the game, but he’s still logged 19+ minutes in every contest in this series.
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Showdown Strategy for Game 5
The general strategy from the field is going to lean into the home court edge and how game fives historically play out. The reality is that this game is in San Antonio and that game five winners almost always go on to win the series.
With the series tied 2-2, the Spurs are favored to win and take a lead heading into game six. I tend to agree that will happen, but with that logic pushing everyone to stack Spurs, we can go against the grain a bit and simply bet on Minnesota to also produce in a close game.
If San Antonio just wastes them, then sure, we have a problem. But even if the Spurs win, we can still gain massive leverage by favoring the Minnesota options.
On top of that, I will be under-weight with Wemby in the CPT slot. Who knows if he will be a total head case and get himself ejected again. But more than that, Minnesota could go out of their way to target him, which maybe leads to ejection, injury, or him simply under-performing.
But it’s ultimately a price and ownership thing. Do I want a good amount of Wemby in the Captain slot? Definitely, but I also want to exploit the field doing the same exact thing if I am rolling out a lot of lineups.
Before you go, be sure to give our DFS lineup builder a try, especially if you don’t use one. It combines projections and sims to generate the best possible lineups and could be extra useful for Showdown contests. Good luck!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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