Hello! It is Monday, so that kinda sucks. On the bright side, Saturday is the Fourth of July, so Friday is a holiday. So today is basically Tuesday, which isn’t so bad. Vibeless, sure, but not bad.
We’re looking at a big ol’ 11-game slate tonight with a little bit of everything. Coors Field is back – featuring the Marlins! – while we’ve also got the Dodgers visiting the A’s and a Wrigley game with warm conditions and wind howling out.
Fun! Let’s win the money, shall we?
Top MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (6/29)
- George Kirby ($8,600, vs. LAA)
- Ranger Suarez ($9,300, vs. WSH)
- Casey Mize ($7,700, at NYY)
- Sean Manaea ($7,000, at TOR)
- Trey Yesavage ($8,100, vs. NYM)
- Ryan Weathers ($8,800, vs. DET)
- Parker Messick ($9,800, vs. TEX)
There’s nothing can’t-miss about this pitching slate, but it’s not terrible, either. I’m leading with George Kirby, who gets a terrific draw at home against the lowly, lackluster Angels. I suppose we can say Kirby has been okay so far this season. His 3.82 SIERA is a little better than his ERA, but it’s also the worst mark of his career so far. His control is still excellent, but his strikeout rate is about 6% lower than it was last year, down to a middling 20.9%.
Kirby’s swinging strike rate is down, but his Stuff+ is actually up overall. This is a price and matchup play. Pitching in Seattle is favorable, while the Angels (25.5% Ks) are an injury-riddled mess at the moment. Kirby’s K-rate is also up at a solid 24.2% against RHBs, and most of the Halos’ more imposing hitters are right-handed. I expect Kirby to be the highest-owned pitcher on the slate, and he’ll be my highest-exposed, too.
Ranger Suarez‘ Red Sox career got off to a rocky start, but look at that, he comes into tonight’s matchup with the Nationals sporting a tidy 2.83 ERA. His SIERA (3.70) is more pedestrian, but still solid. Ranger’s 24.9% strikeout rate this year is also north of his career average, while his once-elite groundball rate has plunged all the way to just 38.2%. What gives? He’s still not allowing much power at all, which is important in a matchup against a suddenly-powerful Washington lineup. The Nats’ power does generally wane against left-handers (.148 ISO, .322 wOBA), while it’s a pretty neutral spot for strikeouts. Washington hits the ball on the ground rather frequently, so if Suarez can rediscover that groundball stuff, tonight would be a good spot to do it.
The Nats only have a 3.7 implied run total here, so I like Suarez quite a bit at $9,300.
Casey Mize and Ryan Weathers will do battle in the Bronx. Mize looks much-improved this year after dealing with plenty of injuries. His 25.1% strikeout rate is the highest he’s ever had, and the underlying data backs it up. Mize has also pitched to a pretty staunch reverse-split this season, which should actually help him in a matchup against the lefty-heavy Yankees who still don’t have Aaron Judge. This version of the Yanks is striking out at a decent clip (22.2%), and he comes at a friendly $7,700 salary. I’m in on Mize, and I’ll probably be well over the field.
Weathers (26.9% Ks, 3.95 SIERA) is also having the best season of his career, though he’s been plagued by some dongs lately. Weathers has served up multiple dingers in 3 of his last 5 starts, though he was excellent in this exact matchup against the Tigers just last week. The Tigers (23.4% Ks) have quite a few high-strikeout hitters, and it’s not the most powerful group vs. LHP (.145 ISO). $8,800 is a reasonable enough asking price. I don’t love Weathers, but he’ll be in my pool here.
Sean Manaea will tangle with Trey Yesavage in Toronto. Manaea has been extremely splitsy this year, with a K-rate north of 32% with elite numbers across the board against his fellow lefties and mediocre numbers in most areas vs. RHBs. The Jays are a low-strikeout bunch (18.3% vs. LHP), though they’re also not hitting for much power (.150 ISO, .312 wOBA). There are a few scary right-handed bats he’ll have to navigate, but Manaea is also just $7,000 and pitching with a pretty full leash these days. He’ll probably be the cheapest pitcher in my pool for single-entry.
Yesavage gets the better on-paper matchup against the Mets, who have a few more Ks (21.3%) than the Jays do. Yesavage’s own strikeout numbers are pretty average (23.3%), while his 12% walk rate has been his undoing, for the most part. I simply think he’s better than his numbers would lead you to believe, and $8,100 is a pretty reasonable asking price. If he can harness the control, he should have an easy enough time with this lineup.
Lastly we’ve got Parker Messick, the priciest pitcher on the board at $9,800 against the Rangers. Messick continues to be excellent (27.2% Ks, 3.48 SIERA, 43.6% GBs). The Texas offense has been pretty average, with quite a few Ks in there, too (23.9%). I’m fine with Messick – the Rangers only have a 3.44 total – I’m just not sure he’s anything resembling a must-have at his near-$10,000 salary.
SP Rankings
- Kirby
- Suarez
- Mize
- Manaea
- Yesavage
- Messick
- Weathers
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Monday
- Padres (at Shota Imanaga)
- Marlins (at Sean Sullivan)
- Cubs (vs. Griffin Canning)
- Mariners (vs. Ryan Johnson)
- Brewers (vs. Nick Lodolo)
- Guardians (vs. TEX bullpen)
- Dodgers (at Gage Jump)
So, windy Wrigley is back. We’ve also got the vulnerable Griffin Canning going for the Padres, while the homer-prone Shota Imanaga toes the rubber for Chicago. Imanaga has allowed an ISO well over .200 to hitters from both sides of the plate, and the wind won’t do him any favors as a flyball pitcher. This Padres offense is #Not #Good, but the weather wins out. They’re also a bunch of groundball hitters, but let’s hope Imanaga’s flyball lean wins out.
Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado are not having great seasons, but they’re still the headliners in this offense, especially against a left-hander. Samad Taylor and Xander Bogaerts are next, while you can round out the 5-man stack with a Jackson Merrill or Gavin Sheets lefty-lefty if they crack the lineup. I don’t love this, but I’m fine with it.
I assume the Cubs will garner more ownership as the better offense facing the worse pitcher. Canning has done fine work against righties, but lefties (15.4% barrels, .287 ISO) are giving him nightmares. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Michael Conforto will hold the platoon edge here, which is meaningful. As always, I don’t mind Alex Bregman or Nico Hoerner as your 5th.
We’ve also got Coors. Rookie lefty Sean Sullivan has ghastly numbers early in his MLB career. Tiny sample, but he’s walked more righties than he’s struck out, and lefties have even given him trouble. The Marlins are a downright respectable offense this season, too. Heriberto Hernandez and Esteury Ruiz (?) have the highest barrel rates this season vs. LHP, though I like the speed of Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards in this park, too. Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee haven’t had a ton of success vs. same-handed pitching, but I’m not too concerned about splits in this spot.
You’re allowed to play the Rockies at home against Sandy Alcantara, but I’m unlikely to get to them much.
The Mariners are in their pitcher-friendly home park against right-hander Ryan Johnson. His splits aren’t particularly good in either direction, so I like this as a lower-owned spot despite the Mariners’ own shittiness offensively. Dom Canzone, Cal Raleigh, and Luke Raley have the highest barrel rates vs. RHP, though JP Crawford, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, and Randy Arozarena have been respectable enough. There’s just more talent here than the production would lead you to believe, so I think they can figure it out eventually. Cole Young and Colt Emerson are a couple more LHBs to add to the pile. If you’re otherwise playing a chalky lineup, I like Seattle to get a bit different. The Angels’ bullpen behind Johnson is dog, too, so that helps.
Nick Lodolo destroyed the Brewers at home last week, which was Not Very Fun, but I still like the way some of these bats profile against LHP – Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, Andrew Vaughn, Blake Perkins, and Gary Sanchez are hitting lefties well this year.
The Dodgers are going into Sacramento, but it’s a tricky spot. Gage Jump has pitched quite well for the A’s, and most of LA’s best hitters are left-handed. Jump really hasn’t allowed much of anything yet, albeit in a small sample with some weak foes in his game log. I’m still happy to play Shohei Ohtani against any lefty, while I’d otherwise build around Andy Pages, Mookie Betts, and Tommy Edman. Teoscar Hernandez is due back, which gives the Dodgers another powerful right-handed bat.
I’m not dying to play the Guardians against Tyler Alexander and a Texas bullpen game, but I don’t mind a few of them for value – Steven Kwan, Cooper Ingle, and Brayan Rocchio.
Other Stuff
- Mets LHBs vs. Yesavage – Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, Carson Benge
- Reds vs. Robert Gasser – Sal Stewart, Elly De La Cruz, Dane Myers
- Tigers power hitters vs. Weathers – Kevin McGonigle, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler
- A’s vs. Eric Lauer – Henry Bolte, Shea Langeliers
- Giants vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – Matt Chapman, Casey Schmitt, Heliot Ramos, Willy Adames, Eric Haase
- Corbin Carroll vs. Tyler Mahle
- Kody Clemens at Peter Lambert
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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