Is Friday giving us the final 2-game slate of the NBA DFS season? If one of these series ends tonight, it’s entirely possible. Both series are elimination games as they head to game six with Minnesota and Detroit having their backs against the wall.
My gut says Detroit sends this thing back home for a game seven, while the Spurs probably put an end to Minnesota’s threats. But no matter what happens, there’s money to be made at DraftKings, so let’s go over the top plays, latest injuries, GPP pivots, and game environments. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Duncan Robinson, Caris LeVert, and Kevin Huerter.
- Best value plays: Daniss Jenkins, Dennis Schroder.
- Top game to attack: Timberwolves vs. Spurs. Higher total, tighter spread.
- Top stud: Wemby. Top projection, floor, and ceiling.
- Blowout risks: None. Both games figure to be fairly competitive with high stakes.
Best NBA DFS Picks for Friday
- Daniss Jenkins ($4.9k)
- Wemby ($10.7k)
- Evan Mobley ($7.5k)
Need more guidance? Try out our DFS lineup tool if you haven’t already.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
Jenkins exploded for major minutes last game. He was bad the game prior, but Detroit has turned to him for 28+ minutes in three of his last four games. Three key Pistons guards are questionable for game six, too, so it’s logical to expect another big night from Jenkins. If even one of those guys are out I think he’s playable and if two sit he’s a must IMO.
Wemby is the stud of choice. Our tool has him grade out the best in projection, floor, and ceiling. The only real fear is if this game blows out, but that can happen anytime. Just take the raw points.
Evan Mobley is the best value up top. He’s playing big minutes and he has been wrecking lately with 48 and 49-point fantasy outings. He almost notched a triple-double last game, so if he’s going to display this type of role and ceiling at just $7.5k I don’t see how we fade it.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 5/15
I am locking in this core and working from there. I think pairing Cade and Wemby is probably a mistake, so if I do play Cade it’s a pivot in tourneys where I hope he nukes and owned Wemby flatlines.
Right now our tool’s top lineup meshes with my approach to this slate, which is soaking up value with Jenkins and Dennis Schroder, paying for Wemby, and then going fairly balanced after that.
You could always fade a chalky Mobley, but I like playing him with Stephon Castle, who grades out super well and is also too cheap. TBH he’s a borderline core play for me as well.
- 🟢 SAFE – Wemby and Mobley. Provided their games don’t blow out they both look like smashes.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Jenkins. Riskier depending on how many Pistons guards suit up.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 5/15
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Below you’ll see this chart map out each game based on point spread, total, and pace of play.
Friday’s NBA DFS Picks for Tournaments
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Anthony Edwards ($8.2k)
- Donovan Mitchell ($8.5k)
- Jalen Duren ($5.7k)
I’m not sure ANT or Spida are going to be low owned. It’s a 2-game slate, they’re both good with high ceilings, and they’re not expensive. If you’re not pairing Wemby and Cade you have money to go get one or even both. And that’s certainly the case if you fade the top two studs.
Most everyone is playing at least one of Cade/Wemby, though so my guess is either Spida or ANT will end up going overlooked. I’d gladly go way over-weight on both, with a slight lean toward Edwards in a crucial game 6 at home to stay alive.
Duren is just crazy cheap now. But he’s been so bad that even at $5.7k he’s not an auto play. That feels insane, so while every part of me says to fade him, I am still going to get to him more than the field. Hey, we did see him come alive in game 7 in round one, as well as game one in this series.
The Pistons are facing elimination. Don’t be shocked if Duren raises his game with the season on the line.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
New to NBA DFS and need even more help? Check out our NBA DFS guide for extra assistance on how to get started!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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