I don’t know why, but the NBA has just one game on the schedule tonight. And it’s a doozy, with the terrible-ass Phoenix Suns hosting an LA Clippers team that won’t have James Harden or Kawhi Leonard. There’s also probably a Thursday Night Football game.
The sport worth playing tonight is hockey, where we’ve got a nice 9-gamer. The contests on DraftKings actually look pretty good, which is a little surprising with the NFL generally hogging all the prize pools on a Thursday. Rather than wasting time with NBA showdown, let’s figure out how to attack the NHL slate instead.
If you’re new, I put together an NHL DFS strategy guide that should help to cover some of the basics. Stacking is a must in this sport, so I’ll structure this similarly to the way I did the MLB content.
Chalk Stacks – Buffalo Sabres, Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, Boston Bruins, Pittsburgh Penguins
This is a large slate, so ownership should be fairly spread out. I’m also writing this at like 10 AM PT, so things can always change from an ownership standpoint. As of now, it looks like the Sabres will be among the chalk ahead of their home date with the Blues.
St. Louis is allowing an NHL-worst 4.14 goals/game alongside a league-worst 85% save percentage. Seems bad! They’ll also have backup Joel Hofer in net tonight, a man who’s allowed multiple goals in all 6 of his appearances. Buffalo is far from an elite offensive team, but their 3.4 total tonight is north of their season average.
The stack is also pretty cheap once you get past Tage Thompson ($8,100) at the top. Rasmus Dahlin ($6,300) is one of your better defensive spends, while Isak Rosen ($3,000) looks like the cheap PP1 piece du jour. I’d probably shy away from playing a very chalky Thompson as a one-off, though I think there’s edge in stacking him with his EV1 teammates – Alex Tuch and Ryan McLeod. Noah Ostlund ($2,500) is viable if you want a punt center as a part of the BUF2 line, but cheap centers generally have low floors.
The Ducks are the highest-scoring team in the league, but mediocre defensively. Dallas hasn’t been as prolific as expected on the goalscoring front, but there’s a boatload of talent here. I’m very into Tyler Seguin ($4,800) as a value piece who correlates well with the pricier Mikko Rantanen ($7,600) and Jason Robertson ($7,500) on PP1. I expect lots of ownership on the Rantanen/Robertson/Wyatt Johnston trio. It’s very expensive, but the ceiling is pretty clear. Roope Hintz is a game-time decision for Dallas, which makes things a little complicated. Him playing could send Robertson back to DAL2. Hintz sitting would make this the most-owned stack on the board, and it’s not bad by any means. People will just play Johnston/Robertson/Bourque is Hintz suits up.
Carolina is another team with a decent total (3.7) at home against a leaky Wild defense. Sebastian Aho ($6,500) is cheap for the ceiling, though he, Sean Walker ($4,400), and Andrei Svechnikov ($3,900) will both come with lots of ownership. The rest of the PP1 – Seth Jarvis ($6,400) and Nikolaj Ehlers ($5,500) – are also cracking double digits. I don’t mind one-offing Aho given the salary. Even a 2-man mini with Svechnikov is in play, while I’d rank Ehlers and Jarvis next in terms of priority. K’Andre Miller is always a nice value.
The Bruins almost always generate ownership, though David Pastrnak ($8,800) accounts for most of it. The Senators sport the league’s worst penalty kill, so there’s merit to stacking Boston’s PP1 line – Pastrnak + Morgan Geekie ($4,800) + Viktor Arvidsson ($3,800) is a nice 3-man. Playing the Boston PP1 without Pastrnak – instead playing guys like Arvidsson, Geekie, Charlie McAvoy, and Pavel Zacha – is spicy. This is a high-upside/high-risk play, and you’re obviously hoping the Pastrnak pivot (Adrian Kempe or Filip Forsberg, perhaps?) outscores him.
Ben Kindel might be the chalkiest individual play on the slate, as he’s now on the PIT1 line amid some injuries. Playing him alongside Sidney Crosby and Bryan Rust is decent, though you’re still eating plenty of ownership.
Leverage Stacks – St. Louis Blues, Tampa Bay Lightning, Montreal Canadiens, New Jersey Devils
The Blues on the other side of the Buffalo matchup are in a good spot, even without Kyrou. The Sabres are going with a backup goaltender, and this is a team committing too many penalties. I like the spot for the STL1 line – Snuggerud, Parayko, Thomas, Broberg, Buchnevich. St. Louis has generated the most high-danger chances, yet they haven’t seen the proper regression yet. It’s coming, so getting in on this early has huge payoff potential if you get them right.
You’ll find some value with Montreal, and we could see ownership on their 2nd and 3rd lines against New Jersey. The first line hasn’t been all that productive, but you’re getting an ownership discount and potential leverage on the chalkier lower lines. MTL1 is Suzuki, Caulfield, Matheson, Slafkovsky, Dobson. Correlating that with a NJPP1 on the other side is pretty intriguing – Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton, Jesper Bratt. Bratt has assisted on a huge share of Hughes’ goals over the past few years, so I’d create a rule to not play one without the other.
Tampa Bay has also been a little disappointing, but they continue to project well for the dollar, even as underdogs in Vegas. If I’m playing them, I’m likely going with the 4-man TB1/PP1 look – Nikita Kucherov, Braydon Hagel, Brayden Point, and Victor Hedman.
If you’re playing small-field contests, eating the Dallas chalk is totally viable. Buffalo and Boston are the next-best things. If Hintz plays, I’m less inclined to eat the ownership on the Stars chalk since that would split the lines. I like the aforementioned MTL/NJ game stack, especially MTL1 at low ownership. MTL2 (Gallagher/Bolduc/Dach) is also excellent, even if higher-owned.
Good luck!
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