Week 16 means we’re down to just 3 weeks to go in the regular season. What a shame. Sunday’s main slate is similar to those we’ve had for weeks now. Lots of cheap QBs, lots of expensive RBs, and double-TE builds looking viable. Here’s what I like for this slate in GPPs.
Detroit Lions (vs. PIT)
The Steelers’ defense hasn’t been what it was cracked up to be coming into this season, and in this one they’ll be down their top two pass rushers and their CB2. Yikes! The Lions still have the juice, and the target tree for Jared Goff has been severely condensed without Sam LaPorta. Last week in LA, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams accounted for 35 of the Lions’ 38 targets as a team. That’s what we like to see, folks.
Stacking the Lions won’t come cheap, but at least you know what you’re getting. Detroit has the slate’s highest implied team total, and the defense has played poorly enough to where it’s not unreasonable to expect the Steelers to be able to keep this one competitive. You can run it back with a still-cheap DK Metcalf on the other side, especially with the way the Lions have become an extreme pass funnel defensively.
The Lions are pretty clearly the top stack on the slate, and I’d expect ownership to follow. Still hard to get away from, particularly in small field. I have zero qualms with playing Gibbs in my DET passing stacks.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. ATL)
Jacoby Brissett’s salary inexplicably declined to $5,300 for…reasons? I dunno, man. Marvin Harrison Jr. is back for this one, though he says he’s still going to be playing through the heel issue that’s kept him sidelined on occasion. Even if he’s not a full go, MHJ’s presence alone is enough to cool my interest in a fully-priced Michael Wilson at $6,900. Wilson is still playable, especially at what should be low ownership, I just don’t love it.
The cleanest way to get in on this is to either play Brissett naked – which is viable – or just pair him with Trey McBride. McBride ($7,600) is easily the most expensive TE on the board, but playing him will probably at least somewhat contrarian with much of the field resorting to pairing some cheaper tight ends just to make the good stuff work on this slate. I am also fine with playing a $5,400 Michael Carter along with the Brissett-McBride combo. The Cardinals aren’t likely to be playing with a huge deficit like they have been in other games, but it’s still a pretty strong spot in the dome against the Falcons’ crappy D.
The popular way to play this will be to run it back with Bijan Robinson, and rightfully so. Kyle Pitts ($5,000) will get some attention on the heels of his career game, though I suspect the field will be less enthused about chasing him here at a higher salary with Drake London likely to play. I don’t care too much about the ownership, as things will still be pretty spread out on an 11-gamer. Arizona + one of the ATL pieces is a pretty easy way to build into this game, and you can get different elsewhere.
Denver Broncos (vs. JAX)
The Broncos ran it up last week against a tough Packers defense. Jacksonville hasn’t been terrible on that side of the ball this season, but they’ve been much more suspect against the pass. Denver’s running game is still playable here with an affordable RJ Harvey, but I really like the idea of getting to Bo Nix with his pass-catchers given some of the big games we’ve seen the Jags yield through the air this season.
Nix has been erratic overall, but the added rushing stuff gives him one of the highest ceilings of any QB on the slate. Nix at $6,100 is also kinda insulated from catching a lot of ownership steam with a likely popular Goff coming in at the exact same salary.
Nix is pretty easy to pair with Courtland Sutton, who’s still under $6,000 on DK. Pat Bryant is under $4,000 with 4+ targets in straight games, while you can mix in Troy Franklin in larger-field stuff as you see fit. I prefer the Nix + Sutton/Bryant doubles. Evan Engram revenge game? Probably not for me. Running it back with Travis Etienne or Jakobi Meyers would be my preferred way to stack the game, but I’m generally less enthused about attacking the Denver defense with the Jags. This game has a high total and it’s coming with very limited ownership, which makes it a pretty ideal tournament target if you’re playing an otherwise chalk-heavy lineup.
New Orleans Saints (vs. NYJ)
People generally don’t want to play the Saints, which makes sense. They’re the Saints. However, here’s a list of teams to whom the Saints have equal or higher implied team totals this weekend:
- Arizona
- LA Chargers
- Pittsburgh
- Jacksonville
- Carolina
- Kansas City
- Minnesota
Ok then! The Saints’ total is around 23 points, so they’re potentially ticketed for some success here against a Jets defense that got destroyed by Trevor Lawrence and subsequently fired their D-coordinator into the sun. Devaughn Vele is also out, which means things can really condense here between Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson. Tyler Shough has already been essentially force-feeding Olave, who’s also the only real expensive piece in the stack. Shough doubles (Olave + Johnson) won’t be unowned on this slate, but I also don’t think we’re likely to see heavy ownership with Brissett coming in at a similar salary.
You can run it back with Breece Hall or Adonai Mitchell if you must force a run-back, but probably not necessary.
Taylor Smith been a profitable DFS player for years, turning his passion for fantasy sports into both consistent results and quality content. Since 2018, he’s created fantasy analysis and strategy pieces for several outlets, most notably RotoGrinders and FantasyLabs, where he’s covered everything from daily picks to advanced DFS theories.
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