The NFL opted not to have a Thursday night game for week 18, so we get two Saturday games instead. They’re actually both quite meaningful, as the Seahawks and 49ers are playing for the #1 seed in the NFC and Tampa Bay vs. Carolina will (perhaps) settle the NFC South division.
The question isn’t just which teams will win, of course, but which NFL DFS picks should be in your lineups. There are several good plays, but I’ll break down my two favorites at every position and wrap things up with an NFL DFS Core for this tiny two-game slate at DraftKings:
QB Picks for Saturday
- Sam Darnold – Seahawks ($5.8k)
- Bryce Young – Panthers ($4.8k)
Maybe Brock Purdy keeps lighting the world afire. Perhaps Baker Mayfield has a big game at home. I think on a tiny 2-gamer both are in play, but I prefer Darnold and Young. Both of those guys will also be less owned by comparison.
Darnold is the top play. He is in a smash spot against a very weak 49ers pass defense. Caleb Williams tore them up last week and a 44-year old Philip Rivers moved the ball against them at will the week before.
Darnold should be paired with JSN at a minimum, but we can look at a Shaheed, Kupp, and Barner to pair with him as well.
Young saves us cash to let us go get JSN and C-Mac without any sort of actual restriction. He’s got the lowest floor of anyone, but that risk if baked into the price. He also has an awesome matchup, as the Buccaneers pass defense is abysmal.
Best RB Plays for 1/3
- Christian McCaffrey – 49ers ($8.8k)
- Kenneth Walker III – Seahawks ($5.7k)
C-Mac has 17 touchdowns and the best role of the entire slate. He’s also at home in a huge game and is in the best game environment. His matchup stinks but we’re not fading the only RB on this slate that has a clear path to 30+ fantasy points.
Rico Dowdle and Bucky Irving are fine. But they’ve also been bad. I think if we’re going to play a second RB we should roll the dice on someone who isn’t chalky. Walker is just as explosive as those guys – if not more so – and he’s cheaper and in just as good of a spot. He’s in a timeshare, but his game is the best of this small slate and he is a home run hitter who can pay off in one play. At 17% ownership, I’m game to take a chance.
Top WR Picks for Saturday
- JSN – Seahawks ($8.6k)
- Tet McMillan – Panthers ($5.8k)
I’m not fading C-Mac or JSN. They’re expensive, but we can just risk it with some value to get them. They both can get 30 fantasy points in their sleep. JSN is in the way better spot, as the 49ers got torched by Alec Pierce and Luther Burden.
McMillan is also in a smash spot, as the Bucs can’t stop the pass. He just put up 19 fantasy points in this same spot and his price hasn’t budged. At sub-$6k, he feels like one of the easiest clicks of the slate.
Best TE Plays for 1/3
- George Kittle – 49ers ($6k)
- A.J. Barner – Seahawks ($3.7k)
These guys are both projecting for 40% ownership. I don’t mind playing them into that ownership and I don’t even hate the idea of pairing them. Kittle is banged up, of course, so if he misses or ends up being remotely limited, a $3k Jake Tonges could be very interesting.
Tonges would be a smash if Kittle sits, but even if Kittle plays I think he’s a really compelling GPP play.
Barner will also be owned and you could argue he’s the better play over Kittle simply due to price. He has the second best projection among all TEs for the Saturday NFL DFS slate, so he’s an easy click. The 49ers are also bad at defense and we saw Loveland chew them up last week.
Top Defenses for Saturday
- Seahawks ($2.7k)
- Panthers ($2.6k)
Tampa Bay and Seattle are the two chalky defenses. I’ll bite on the Seahawks, as they have a legitimately good defense. Brock Purdy also can throw some picks, while the Seahawks are one of the best defenses in football at taking the ball away. Trent Williams also may not play, so we could see a good amount of sacks here.
Carolina is basically the same price and in a similar spot. Baker Mayfield can drown in a sea of turnovers and take bad sacks, while the Panthers are low-owned.
I’m not playing a chalky Bucs defense. They’ve been brutal. I know it’s a big game at home, but if they’re the chalk, give me all the Panthers stacks.
My Saturday NFL DFS Core
- Sam Darnold
- C-Mac
- JSN
- Kittle
If I am doing one lineup, I am starting here. Darnold+JSN with C-Mac and Kittle comeback. I don’t mind going further with Barner, but I might start getting creative with Walker or Kupp/Shaheed.
You can also just do that with ancillary pieces elsewhere, though, as guys like Jalen McMillan and Jalen Coker might fly under the radar a bit.
Even if I am entering a lot of lineups, I am focusing on the foursome above. The spots where I’d get creative and work away from as I run through more lineups is QB and TE. Young is my favorite tourney pick at QB, while I like the idea of playing unowned tight ends, with Tonges in particular being interesting (albeit at low exposure) in case Kittle is used more for his blocking or is simply capped.
C-Mac and JSN are guys I am paying for everywhere.
Secondary plays I’d get to a lot include Bucky, Rico, Walker, Mike Evans, and Tet. Of that group, Walker is my favorite 2nd RB and Tet is my favorite second WR.
Leave a Reply