The NFL kicks off week 17 in style, as we get three Christmas Day games. This makes for a more fun Thursday Night Football slate than usual, as we can play the three-game main slate at DraftKings instead of a Showdown contest.
Motivation is key here, as just the Detroit Lions and Denver Broncos have anything of substance to play for. Detroit needs to win out and get some help to sneak into the playoffs, while Denver needs to win out and get some help to earn back the #1 seed in the AFC.
Keep an eye on whether some big names could sit or be limited, but for the most part you can lean on my top NFL DFS picks for the Christmas Day slate. I’ll highlight the top play at each position, give you a secondary play that could be good for tournaments, and wrap things up with my preferred core on this slate. Let’s get to it!
Best QB Plays
- Dak Prescott – Cowboys ($6.9k)
- Bo Nix – Broncos ($6k)
Dak is expensive and Dallas has nothing left to play for, but he also has the best matchup and projects the best. Nix is the better value and I expect these guys to split ownership, but if price was not an issue Dak would be the pick.
Which QB you build around depends on who else you’re trying to get and what kind of contests you enter. If Dak is a GPP play, sign me up for that.
I do think Josh Johnson is an interesting punt at $4.4k, assuming he gets the start. He’s dirt cheap for a smash spot against a bad Cowboys defense that apparently wants to make every single QB look like a god this year. Johnson is old, but he’s pretty mobile and he does have some nice weapons in the face of a welcoming matchup.
If Johnson isn’t going to be owned and he helps me load up elsewhere, I’ll be over the field on him.
Top RB Picks
- Jahmyr Gibbs – Lions ($8.3k)
- Javonte Williams – Cowboys ($6.3k)
RJ Harvey is in play but I prefer Javonte and Gibbs is the easiest click on the slate. I do not feel inclined to play three RBs on this slate, so aside of a random punt like McNichols or Montgomery, I want these two guys in most of my lineups.
Gibbs doesn’t have an amazing matchup against the Vikings, but he has the highest ceiling of the slate and by far the top RB projection. I just don’t see a point to fading him unless you’re playing for injury.
Williams is a guy we could get away from if we are box-score watching, as he’s been pretty mid for some time now. Still, this slate is kind of butt for running backs and he’s had one of the better roles out there. In addition, he faces a weak Commanders defense that is responsible for his last 20+ fantasy point outing.
Best WR Picks
- Amon-Ra St. Brown – Lions ($7.9k)
- George Pickens – Cowboys ($7.3k)
Justin Jefferson may be back to being untouchable with J.J. McCarthy among the deceased, so I will just go stack up WRs on this slate. The Sun God is the most obvious play, as he torched Minnesota for nine catches and 97 yards and has displayed an insane ceiling lately.
Pickens is my preferred Cowboys receiver just because of where I expect ownership to be and the fact that he has some milestones to hit. Dallas has precious little to play for, but they can get Pickens to 100 catches if they so choose. He rebounded with a nice outing last week, so I think the chances are good he stays hot in a great spot against Washington.
Top Tight End Plays
- Travis Kelce – Chiefs ($4.5k)
- Josh Oliver – Vikings ($2.8k)
Kelce is another name to consider if we’re targeting guys who have something to play for. Quarterback play and his own declining skills are reasons to be worried, but he’s chasing career milestones that KC probably wouldn’t mind helping him with.
Tight end is gross on this slate, though, so I really just want to punt it and ideally I am playing one cheap TE and moving along. TJ Hockenson is probably the preferred option if he’s active, but a shoulder injury could keep him out. That’d bring me to Oliver, who is under $3k and could see a lot of checkdowns with Minnesota down to their third string quarterback.
Best Defenses to Play
- Denver Broncos ($3.7k)
- Detroit Lions ($3.2k)
When in doubt, trust the players and teams that give a shit. Denver is still playing for the top seed in the AFC, while the Lions are trying to simply make the NFC playoffs. Both of their defenses are facing terrible real life quarterbacks, so combine those two things to get the two best defenses to target in NFL Christmas Day DFS contests.
My NFL DFS Christmas Day Core
- Gibbs
- Javonte
- St. Brown
- Oliver
- Lions D
This is how I’d start out most of my NFL DFS lineups on Christmas Day. Gibbs and St. Brown are easy clicks and locks fore me. Javonte is pretty close to a lock as well and I doubt I’ll shy away from him, just as much as I doubt I’ll play a third RB on this slate.
Oliver is my top TE punt. I see no reason to have much confidence in the spend up TEs. Kelce and Jake Ferguson are both fine, but they’ve been bad and don’t project very well. The extra savings can come in useful and help me load up at WR or go get Dak to be different.
Detroit saves me cash and faces Max Brosmer, so they feel like an easy call over the Broncos. But I like both a lot and might play the ownership angle if it fluctuates.
I am leaving QB open. Nix is the obvious play, so I don’t mind pivoting to Goff, paying up for Dak, or punting with Josh Johnson if he ends up being the chalk. Nix is also just a totally fine play if you can find another spot to get different in as well.
Good luck and Merry Christmas!
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