We’ve got a whopper of a 15-game slate on tap for tonight ahead of tomorrow’s measly 1-gamer. There’s obviously a lot to like out there, and ownership isn’t as big a factor with just about every team in the league in action here.
I’ll touch on who looks like chalk to start and follow that up with a few lower-owned stacks on my radar. I’ll also give brief thoughts on defense and goalie. Off we go.
Chalk Stacks
- BOS1/PP (Geekie/Pastrnak/Minten)
- DET2 (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane)
- VAN1 (Petterson/DeBrusk/Karlsson)
- ANH1 (Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn)
- ANH2 (Poehling/Gauthier/Viel)
The Bruins already ruled out Elias Lindholm and Fraser Minten is expected to join the first line with Pastrnak and Geekie. That trio has produced well in a mere 20 minutes of ice time this season, and the $3,000 tag on Minten makes the stack easy to afford in a plus matchup against the Flyers’ backup netminder. There’s also a decent chance the field finds $900 more to play Zacha over Minten to make it a PP1 stack.
The Capitals have been butt defensively lately – Seattle of all teams just ran over them – and the DET2 line (Copp/DeBrincat/Kane) has been fairly reliable all year. Washington has allowed the third-highest xG in the league. DeBrincat is the only one projected for double-digit ownership. I still don’t think ownership is a huge concern with so many games, and stacking him with his linemates + Larkin or Seider is an interesting way to go.
The VAN/ANH game should be popular on both sides. We saw this VAN1 line come in as the popular chalk the other night along with EDM. The Ducks’ defense hasn’t been all that porous in general over the past couple of weeks, though they did just cough up 7 to the Oilers. I’m okay enough with the Petterson/Kane/Garland line, though this team is shuffling things. I’d like Hronek if he plays, but sounds like he won’t. As always, the thing worth remembering about the Canucks is that they’re awful.
The Ducks are still banged up, though Troy Terry could return here. Only Chicago has been leakier defensively than Vancouver this season, so Anaheim will garner some ownership no matter what. The Granlund/Sennecke/Killorn line hasn’t been much better than average, but they’re also cheap and likely to see plenty of ice time against a crappy D. We’ll see how a potential Terry return shakes up the lines, and it doesn’t help that this is a late game. You’re really not getting much of a salary discount by playing ANH2 over them, though they have been similarly productive and should be much lower-owned than ANH1.
Expensive Stacks
- TB1 (Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel)
- EDM1 (McDavid/Hyman/Nugent-Hopkins)
- COL1 (MacKinnon/Necas/Oloffson)
- MIN1 OR MIN2
We’ve got star power on this slate, baby. As is usually the case, I’ll go out of my way to get exposure to TB1. Their matchup against Winnipeg here is elite. Not only is Hellebuyck not what he used to be, but this defense is also penalty-prone. The usual issue that arises with playing TB1 or TB PP1 is the salaries. These guys are all expensive, and it’s not easy to pair them with Guentzel or Raddysh as a result. The flip side is that Cirelli/Kucherov/Hagel has still been the most productive line in the league in terms of xG per 60.
I’d rank EDM1 next ahead of COL1 in terms of priority. The Avs get a much better matchup than the bad draw they got last night in Ottawa, but this first line has been extremely mid since they added Olofsson to it. Montreal has conceded the 4th-most penalty minutes in the league, though, so Colorado should see plenty of time with the man advantage. They’re one of those “stack every night” teams, I’m just not planning on making them a priority on a 15-gamer.
EDM gets San Jose in a game with some shootout potential. The Sharks aren’t a shutdown defense by any means, and they’ll also commit some penalties. Any sort of EDM1/PP stack is going to project well, you just have to pay out the ass for them.
MIN1 just eats, and MIN2 is more appealing now that they’ve gotten some guys back from injury. It’s just an incredibly expensive team, especially if you try to tack Quinn Hughes onto anything.
I’m not sure it’s optimal to pay top dollar for any of these stacks with such a large slate. There’s a pretty good chance some cheaper lines put up some healthy enough scores to potentially offset the damage any of them do.
Other Good Stacks
- PIT1 (Crosby/Rakell/Brazeau)
- PIT2 (Novak/Malkin/Chinakhov)
- WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi)
- TOR1-3
- SEA 1 + SEA 3
- NJD2 (Hischier/Gritsyuk/Tsyplakov)
Slate gets pretty overwhelming so I tried narrowing this down as best I could. I think my favorite of this lot is some combination of Penguins against that league-worst Chicago defense. Bryan Rust is suspended, so we’ve seen Justin Brazeau promoted to PIT1 with Crosby and Rakell. You’re paying for those two, but the $3,000 Brazeau really helps with affordability. He’s been a productive cog in our beloved PIT3 line, and I don’t see any reason not to love this situation overall. Erik Karlsson is also back, and I love adding him to PIT1 to make it a 4-man. I think fading Brazeau and instead playing Chinakhov to make it a 4-man PP1 stack is also interesting despite Chicago’s recent success on the PK.
PIT2 is also solid with Chinakhov and Novak being dirt-cheap in the mid-$3,000s.
Both sides of the TOR/SEA game look excellent, especially with the way the Leafs have really pooped the bed defensively. The Beniers/Eberle/McCann line won GPPs on the last slate, and we’ll see if people go there again. I like SEA3 (Wright/Schwartz/Kakko) on the cheap.
I’d slightly lean toward TOR2 (Tavares/Knies/Maccelli) over TOR1 given the way the Kraken’s first line has defended pretty well. As always, you can tack Matthews onto any other line to try and grab his ceiling.
I almost always seem to get to WPG1 (Scheifele/Connor/Vilardi) at least a little. It’s a productive line, and the Lightning continue to lead the league in penalty minutes per 60. It’s a high-upside alternative to the pricier stacks at a pretty nice discount.
The Devils shook up some lines, too, and there’s good value here on the 2nd line with Hischier/Gritsyuk/Tsyplakov. Nashville doesn’t have great depth, so the Devils can exploit that a bit here.
Defensemen
I mentioned Erik Karlsson being a good play at $4,800 with or without some other Penguins. Other strong pay-ups on my radar are Rasmus Dahlin, Jakob Chychrun, and Moritz Seider. I’m getting to a little more Quinn Highes than Evan Bouchard or Roman Josi among the true expensive options.
On the cheap, I like Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Dougie Hamilton, Justin Faulk, Brandon Montour, Ben Chiator, Mattias Samuelsson, JJ Moser, and Dylan DeMelo. The Trouba + LaCombe duo for Anaheim is generally fine, but I’m not sure this matchup against crappy VAN leads to lots of blocks, etc.
Goalie
If you’re looking to leverage the shaky VAN/ANH chalk, playing Lukas Dostal or Nikita Tolopilo is logical. Ownership is otherwise pretty flat, looks like we’ll see some on Gustavsson, Cooley, Askarov, Saros, and Dobes.
Taylor Smith been a profitable DFS player for years, turning his passion for fantasy sports into both consistent results and quality content. Since 2018, he’s created fantasy analysis and strategy pieces for several outlets, most notably RotoGrinders and FantasyLabs, where he’s covered everything from daily picks to advanced DFS theories.
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