It’s NFL playoff time, which means we get a lot of dumb broken up slates at DraftKings. There are three in all, as you can play Saturday’s two-game slate, Sunday’s three-gamer, or if you really hate yourself, you can play the Showdown slate for an ugly Steelers vs. Texans game on Monday night.
My personal favorite? The full main slate. Technically Sunday’s three-gamer would operate as this week’s “main slate”, but I think the best way to go is to simply play the three-day slate that allows you to operate as if this is a somewhat normal NFL DFS week.
But I digress. In the name of pushing out useful content for our loyal subscribers (thank you!), I am going to give it a go, handing out a breakdown for each individual slate. Do I hate myself? Clearly a little. I am only doing a video for the full 3-day slate, though (probably).
That said, let’s get to the NFL DFS picks I like on this 2-game slate for Saturday:
Top QB Picks for Saturday
- Matthew Stafford – Rams ($6.9k)
- Jordan Love – Packers ($5.3k)
Stafford threw 46 touchdowns during the regular season. Seems good! On Saturday the Rams, who are definitely not as bad as a normal 5-seed, have to go on the road to face an 8-9 Panthers team because the NFL can’t figure out how to do seeding properly. Naturally, he’s going to shred them to pieces.
L.A. comes into this slate with an implied 28.5 team total and they are favored by 10. Godspeed, Panthers.
Stafford is pricey for who he is, as he has zero rushing floor and legit has to throw for 3+ touchdowns to hit. But he kind of does that in his sleep, having topped 23+ fantasy points in four of his last five games.
We don’t have a C-Mac on this slate, so paying for Stafford is a lot more palatable on Saturday than it is on the full slate.
If you do want to save cash, the best punt is easily Jordan Love. Green Bay is on the road and while the Bears do force turnovers better than anyone, they otherwise are not very good defensively. Love put up 20+ fantasy points the last time he played a full game against them, and the Packers are mild underdogs.
It’s a positive matchup with game script possibly benefiting him from a DFS perspective. I don’t think we need to take this chance on this slate, but Love will probably be contrarian on both slates.
Saturday’s Best RB Plays
- Kyren Williams – Rams ($6.4k)
- Josh Jacobs – Packers ($6.3k)
- D’Andre Swift – Bears ($5.7k)
I’ll give you three RBs, just because I don’t know how I feel about stacking up the Rams passing game and their top RB. They may completely nuke Carolina, though, so it’s certainly not out of play. Either way, Kyren looks pretty good here, as the Panthers are bad against RBs on the year. If Los Angeles lives up to their favorite billing he could smash.
We need to see where ownership is, but Jacobs is at worst a great pivot off of Williams, or a fine partner in crime. Jacobs has been banged up and missed a bunch of time lately, but he should finally be fresh for a plus matchup in Chicago.
The Bears are a team you can run on, and he put up a solid 17 fps the first time he ran into them.
Jacobs is the best overall value of this entire Saturday NFL DFS slate. He should have solid volume, he has elite TD equity, and the matchup looks strong on paper.
I will also add Swift, as the Bears want to run a lot and they’re quite good at it. They have an edge at home and if they do dictate the pace of this game, both Swift and Kyle Monangai should benefit immensely. Swift hasn’t had a ton of success against Green Bay, but just look at what Derrick Henry did to them.
If Green Bay’s run defense has fully evaporated, then Swift and/or Monangai could absolutely smash.
Top WR Picks for 1/10
- Puka Nacua – Rams ($8.7k)
- Christian Watson – Packers ($4.9k)
- Luther Burden – Bears ($4.6k)
If you’re playing Stafford you should probably play Puka and perhaps Davante Adams, too. Adams is the main RZ threat and way cheaper, but Puka offers the highest ceiling of any Saturday NFL DFS picks you’ll consider. I think we should just get him in our lineups and move on.
If you pay for Puka, you’ll need to find some savings somewhere. We can take shots on Packers ancillary WRs, but I’d first start with solid values like Watson and Burden. Both have seen their roles grow quite a bit over the last several weeks, and both have positive matchups in front of them.
I am interested to see where ownership settles, as they are the same price, but I think Watson is the far better play. The current game script suggests Watson could get more volume, while the potential return of Rome Odunze could lower Burden’s ceiling.
Barring injury, this is a smash spot for Watson, who has morphed into a bit of an alpha dog for the green and gold, while he smoked the Bears (24.9 fps) in the first meeting.
Best Tight Ends for Saturday
- Colston Loveland – Bears ($4.4k)
- Tyler Higbee – Rams ($3.2k)
Tight end is the worst! You can certainly just punt the position with scrubs like Luke Musgrave or Tommy Tremble and I wouldn’t blame you. But Loveland figures to be your best bet when looking at projection, floor, ceiling, and matchup.
Higbee or possibly Colby Parkinson are OK options that allow you to save some cash and get different. Higbee smashed last week (20 fps) in his first game since mid-November.
It’s unknown if he will completely unseat Parkinson long-term, but the Panthers give up production against TEs, so we can roll the dice on both of these guys.
Top Saturday Defenses
- Los Angeles Rams ($3.5k)
- Chicago Bears ($2.5k)
The Rams and Bears are both favored, so that’s where I’d start. L.A. is rock solid defensively and the Panthers don’t belong here, so I can see a very dominant performance incoming. It all comes down to funds. Ideally they are the defense we use.
Chicago is the preferred punt, simply because they are favored, they’re at home, and they’re cheap. Oh, and they force more turnovers per game than anyone in all of pro football. Green Bay has a good offense and I hope they wipe the floor with the Bears, but all momentum has tipped toward Chicago.
Even if the Bears lose, it’s fairly likely this game isn’t a fire fight, and Chicago is a good bet to get 1-2 turnovers.
My NFL DFS Core for Saturday, 1/10
- Stafford
- Jacobs
- Puka
- Rams D
Tight end can die. In my first build, I find myself landing on Tommy Tremble or Luke Musgrave. I don’t know if Loveland or the Rams guys are so great that we can’t just get away from that chalk and let that be one of the spots we gain some leverage. I’m willing to risk it.
These are the top Saturday NFL DFS picks I’d be building around, though. You have some other plays above that I like, as well as my reasoning, but if I am building one lineup I’d start with this core and look to get different elsewhere.
My favorite strategy is to stack the Rams, but fade Kyren and the tight ends. Tremble as a mild comeback is OK against my defense. It’s possible my first run-through is too chalky, so another idea is to fade Davante and target Higbee or Parkinson (whoever is lower-owned) and play someone in the Flex that nobody is on.
The possibilities are endless! But hopefully this breakdown and my Saturday NFL core gets you going in the right direction. Good luck, and thanks for supporting The DFS Build!
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
Want more winning DFS plays like this? Get our daily core plays, leverage spots, and strategy sent straight to your inbox.
Leave a Reply