You know I love me a good NFL DFS Showdown slate, but I’m pretty excited to have a three-game slate on Thanksgiving Day, instead.
Thanksgiving slates almost never go as you expect, so I am very much into the idea of seeing where ownership lies, and then going in the completely opposite direction. That doesn’t mean we should fade every chalky piece, but if one team is going to be mega chalk, let’s just stack someone else.
With that, let’s dive into this slate with a breakdown of each position, along with my favorite plays for each spot at DraftKings.
Top QB Plays
- Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($6.5k)
- Lamar Jackson, Ravens ($6.8k)
- Jordan Love, Packers ($5.5k)
I thought Lamar would be the chalk against the Bengals, but so far he is not. That makes him a smash for me. Cincy remains quite awful defensively, and he has the highest ceiling of anyone on the slate.
Jackson is a natural pivot away form what looks to be a chalky Mahomes. Mahomes also has plenty of upside and is in his own smash spot against a bad Dallas defense. Both of these guys look fantastic. The only issue will be ownership and if we feel the need to save.
Jordan Love is interesting at just $5.5k. It doesn’t look like he will garner much ownership, while Detroit is much worse defensively through the air than on the ground. Green Bay’s speed could kill in this spot and this is a huge game for both teams.
Mahomes is the cash game play and probably the safest QB pick of the slate. Lamar is the direct pivot at lower ownership. Love is the salary saver best reserved for GPPs.
Best RB Picks
- Derrick Henry, Ravens ($7.3k)
- Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions ($8.8k)
- Chase Brown, Bengals ($6.5k)
- Emanuel Wilson, Packers ($5.8k)
Henry is a smash play against the Bengals, who remain awful in every possible way on defense. I don’t think I’d go out of my way to pair him and Lamar together, but they have both done well in the same game many times in the past.
Henry is probably the safest play due to volume, TD equity, and matchup, but he’s not close to being the most owned RB on this slate. Right now that is Chase Brown, who is too cheap for his role. He offers a solid floor, a nice ceiling, and a terrific projection for the price. Baltimore’s defense is better than it was earlier in the year, but Brown’s stability (18+ fantasy points in 4 straight games) is hard to ignore. He might just be good chalk, but at 25-30% ownership, fading isn’t the worst idea.
Gibbs just offers an astronomical ceiling that no other RB (probably) provides. He went off for nearly 60 fantasy points last week and has twice had 45+ this year. I do think the matchup with Green Bay stinks, but he’s at home in a dome in a must-win game. I can see this going either way, but the good thing is (at least for now) his ownership isn’t crazy due to his salary.
Keep an eye on the status of Josh Jacobs. He sat out last week with a knee injury and Emanuel Wilson dominated en route to almost 30 fantasy points. The matchup isn’t ideal, but Wilson isn’t even $6k. He would be a volume-based smash play at his salary.
Javonte Williams is presently shaping up to be rather overlooked. He’s been pretty “meh” of late and his matchup is bad on paper, but the role and price make him appealing in GPPs.
Top WR Plays
- Rashee Rice, Chiefs ($7.5k)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions ($7.8k)
- CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($6.9k)
- Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals
- Christian Watson, Packers ($4.7k)
- Zay Flowers, Ravens ($6.1k)
Rice and CeeDee are my favorite spends right now. St. Brown and Chase will always have a strong case, but they are expensive and I think Rice and Lamb could easily match them. Rice is in a smash spot, while Lamb’s price has simply gone down too much.
We can save even more with Zay in the mid-range. He has not offered a spike week in some time, but he’s displayed a really nice floor on a weekly basis. The Bengals are definitely the type of matchup where I’d want to be over the field on Flowers, though.
Watson feels like such an easy click this week. He has had 4+ targets in every game since returning from a knee injury and last week he drew a season-high seven. He’s always stepped up his game against the Lions, while his speed could hurt them in their dome. Jameson Williams is a very similar play, but I trust Watson’s role a little more.
Depending on Green Bay’s injury report, Dontayvion Wicks ($3.4k) could be a fun punt, while I am forever interested in Xavier Worthy in tourneys.
Best TE Picks
- Mark Andrews, Ravens ($3.6k)
- Travis Kelce, Chiefs (5k)
- Brock Wright, Lions ($2.8k)
Tight end stinks. Kelce feels a little expensive for this slate, as we have better ways to spend our salary. That said, he has a role, doesn’t cost a fortune, and has a good matchup. If everyone goes there, though, I will shy away and look to save at this position.
Mark Andrews is the first guy I am gravitating toward. His floor is painfully low, but the Bengals are consistently awful at stopping tight ends. This is a great week to throw caution to the wind and fire him up at a discounted price tag.
Beyond that, I am looking for true punts. Brock Wright fits the bill, as Sam LaPorta is out and the Packers also are not elite against fantasy tight ends. It’s a shot in the dark, but he saves salary and he could always find his way to 10 fantasy points.
Top Defenses
- Packers ($2.6k)
- Ravens ($3k)
The only defenses I am going out of my way to play are Green Bay and Baltimore. The Packers are too cheap for their pass rush upside. They’re on the road on a short week, but the dominated the Lions in week one. For this price, I’m willing to bet they do it again.
Baltimore’s defense has improved greatly over the last several weeks. Their matchup with the Bengals could turn into a shootout if Joe Burrow returns, but I’m still OK with betting on the Ravens getting it done.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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