Week 11? Is that right? NFL season sure does fly by. This Sunday slate is an interesting one. It looks like much of the ownership will congregate around the early games. CIN-PIT looks like the standout game after these teams went back and forth a few weeks ago on Thursday Night Football. The ownership is probably justified, but that also leaves a lot of appealing spots flying under the radar.
Let’s dive in.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
This is undoubtedly the best real-life game of Week 11. We’ve got a couple of elite all-around teams squaring off in LA in a game with a 3-point spread and a healthy 48-point total. And yet…it doesn’t look like we’re going to see a ton of ownership here. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua are going to pull double digits every week, but both will be more lightly-owned than Ja’Marr Chase. In larger field stuff, I’ll be surprised if either JSN or Puka cracks 20%.
The Seahawks and Rams both have excellent defenses, but…they also have elite offenses. Both teams also play at breakneck paces. We can thank Seattle’s hyper-efficient passing attack for their productivity despite a more run-heavy attack. When they take to the air, they’re doing significant damage. Even at $8,900, I’ll be heavily invested in JSN. Pairing him with the $5,700 Sam Darnold is perfectly fine. I’m not getting to much of the value here, but a $4,100 Cooper Kupp #revengegame is playable in stacks.
I think the Rams will have to take to the air in this one considering nobody has been more stingy than Seattle against the run. They’re happy to do that, of course. Matthew Stafford leads the world in TD passes and he’s second in average air yards this season. The hefty $6,600 salary on a non-rushing QB always keeps his ownership in check. It’s also tough to stack him with this pricey weapons – the $8,700 Nacua and the $7,700 Davante Adams – but at least we know where the ball is going. Adams is expected to play despite an oblique injury.
There is enough cheap value at RB and TE to make this doable. My preferred way to play is to get Stafford + Puka or Adams with Smith-Njigba as the runback. I think this game is very likely to shoot out, and the field just isn’t getting there.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
As mentioned, this game is the chalk, and it seems justified. We’re got a couple of old-balls QBs squaring off again, but it’s hard not to like this. Over the last 4 weeks, the Bengals’ games have averaged about 77 points. Read that again. Their offense is glorious. Their defense is not that. That does not include previous meeting between these teams that produced a mere 64 points.
The Cincinnati side will be the chalkier one on aggregate. Joe Flacco threw the ball approximately 61 times to Ja’Marr Chase in that one, yet there was still enough volume for Tee Higgins to chime in with 10 targets, 96 yards, and a TD of his own. Chase Brown is only $5,700 and facing a Pittsburgh defense giving it up to opposing RBs on a regular basis. Cincy is a pass-heavy offense, and rightfully so, but Brown is also involved in that regard. Both Chases will be chalky, which is interesting considering they aren’t exactly positively correlated. You can just play everybody here. I don’t think a 4-man onslaught is even a bad idea given the expected pace of this one. There are ways to get different within the stack, of course. Playing Flacco + Brown + Higgins without Chase may not be optimal, but it’s still viable if you’re brave.
The more interesting side – ownership considered – is probably the Steelers. Jaylen Warren ($6,100) will be the chalky runback with Bengals stacks, which is logical considering Cincinnati absolutely cannot stop anyone on the ground. But the Steelers with Aaron Rodgers have quietly been more pass-heavy, and I think that’s where the edge in this one lies. I do not think I have rostered Rodgers this season, but that will change on Sunday. He’s only $5,400. DK Metcalf is only $5,700. Jonnu Smith is a wee $2,900. Warren is involved enough as a receiver to be viable in a Rodgers stack. I think playing Rodgers doubles with one of the Chases is a sharp way to play this game.
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
The other NFC West clash is the big one, but the JV version could also have some goodness. It looks like Brock Purdy will finally return after missing eons with a toe injury. Jacoby Brissett is still the main man for the Cardinals. San Francisco has been more pass-happy with Mac Jones than they have been with Purdy, but I think this matchup will force them to take to the air. Arizona has been fairly solid against the run.
McCaffrey is the main man and he’s involved enough in the passing game to play alongside Purdy. If you think he struggles, though, it is a favorable spot to continue to get to George Kittle and/or Jauan Jennings in the $5,000 range. I don’t even mind jamming in all 4 of SF’s primary pieces together, especially with some of the good cheap stuff available on the Arizona side.
Christian McCaffrey and Trey McBride will be fairly popular, but that’s about it for this game. I don’t even think a $9,000 C-Mac will be mega-chalk by any means with all of the solid cheaper RBs out there. McBride is the clear-cut TE1 and someone people will play heavily. They won’t play him often with Brissett, however, which could be a mistake. McBride’s target share is north of 31% with Brissett in there, and Marvin Harrison Jr. won’t even be there this week. Brissett is still wildly cheap at a sub-$5,000 salary despite consistent production, a favorable matchup against a banged-up Niners defense in a dome, and with a super-cheap Michael Wilson ($3,800) or Greg Dortch ($3,300) presumably stepping into bigger roles. You can very easily build a super-cheap Brissett double or triple with more than enough salary left over to jam in C-Mac if you want the game stack.
Other Stacks On My Radar
- Minnesota Vikings (primarily McCarthy + Jefferson, mixing in Jones, Hockenson, Addison)
- Los Angeles Chargers (Herbert + 2 of McConkey/Allen/Johnston/Gadsden)
Taylor Smith been a profitable DFS player for years, turning his passion for fantasy sports into both consistent results and quality content. Since 2018, he’s created fantasy analysis and strategy pieces for several outlets, most notably RotoGrinders and FantasyLabs, where he’s covered everything from daily picks to advanced DFS theories.
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