Howdy! It’s Monday, and we’ve got Coors Field back on the schedule, this time with the Red Sox in town. We, fortunately, do not have to deal with the A’s, which is refreshing after their games have been mega-chalk for like the last two weeks.
Looks like a decent slate, at first glance. I can think of no better way to start the week than by winning some money, so let’s do that. If you haven’t already, grab yourself a free 7-day trial of our MLB DFS sims, which help you build +EV lineups you can throw right into GPPs.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers for Monday
- Hunter Brown ($10,800, at TOR)
- Dylan Cease ($10,000, vs. HOU)
- Gavin Williams ($9,300, at CHW)
- Kyle Bradish ($8,500, at LAA)
- Shota Imanaga ($8,300, at NYM)
- Anthony Kay ($6,500, vs. CLE)
It’s a decent-sized slate, but the pitching pool isn’t all that deep. We do have a couple of $10,000 options squaring off in Toronto. Hunter Brown is $10,800 making his second start off the IL, while Dylan Cease comes in at $800 less…for some reason.
Brown is good. His 37.5% strikeout rate this season through a handful of starts is unsustainably high. He’ll likely wind up closer to 27%-28%, which is where he finished last season. His 14.1% walk rate will also come down. Brown’s 1.10 ERA is belied by a 3.25 SIERA, but a 3.25 SIERA is still pretty good. His swinging strike rate is a bit lower than it was last year, so there’s nothing at all real about that 37.5% K-rate.
The Blue Jays aren’t a particularly powerful foe (.151 ISO, .320 wOBA), but they’re also not a high-strikeout group (18.9%). Brown’s leash should be fine after he threw 92 pitches right off the injured list, but I don’t think this is a $10,800 pitcher. I expect him to put up a good score, and I’ll have some exposure.
I will have a ton of Cease, though. Cease’s 36.3% strikeout rate is also probably due for some regression, though the underlying numbers (15.8% SwStr%, 108 Stuff+) make it look more legit than Brown’s inflated mark. The issue is always control, and Cease’s 10.2% walk rate is right in line with his career number. The Astros are a pretty neutral matchup for strikeouts and walks, while they’ve hit for more power than the Blue Jays. There’s just no reason Cease should come at such a discount compared to Brown, and I’m confident he’ll be my highest-exposed player on the slate.
Gavin Williams is a similar pitcher. The 27.9% strkeout rate looks great, and he’s reined in the control (8.1% walks) after that was a weakness for several years. He got rocked in his last start by the Brewers, but that looks more anomalous than anything else. I’m a buyer of what he’s selling. Williams’ matchup against the White Sox isn’t ideal (.178 ISO, 9% walks vs. RHP), though they will strike out a decent amount (22.2%). Williams has allowed some barrels (12.8%) and some power (.204 ISO) to lefties, so facing 7 of them could be problematic. I don’t mind Williams and I will have more of him than Brown.
I’m fine skipping things like Michael King and Brandon Woodruff on this slate and going down to Kyle Bradish, who should be a popular SP2 play at $8,500 thanks to his matchup against the Angels. The Angels were bad when they had their good players, though most of their good players are now on the injured list. At this point, it’s Zach Neto, Jo Adell, and a bunch of minor-leaguers. They strike out (24%), they don’t walk (6%), and they just don’t offer much resistance.
Bradish struck out 12 Mariners in his most recent outing, which was easily his best start of the season. His current 24.2% strikeout rate looks about right. He’s gotten himself into trouble with walks (11.7%), but I don’t expect that to continue, especially in this spot. Bradish isn’t comfortable chalk, but I get it.
Shota Imanaga has been erratic, mainly because he’s a flyball pitcher who’ll be susceptible to home runs. I’m a fan of his matchup, though, as he gets a park boost going into Citi Field to face the lowly Mets (.150 ISO, .322 wOBA vs. RHP). He’ll have the platoon edge against most of the Mets’ more threatening hitters, and he’s been a solid source of Ks (24.2%). He’s slightly cheaper than Bradish, and I think he’ll come at a pretty significant ownership discount. I’m in on Imanaga, for sure.
The only other guy on my radar is Anthony Kay. He’s been very splitsy, with utterly dominant numbers against lefties and utterly wack numbers against righties. It’s good to be a lefty pitching against the Guardians, a lefty-heavy lineup that doesn’t really have anyone of note swinging it from the right side with Jose Ramirez out injured. They’ll strike out (23.8%), and they’re one of the most punchless offenses in baseball (.109 ISO, .286 wOBA) against southpaws. Kay is cheap at $6,500, and I’m fine with him.
SP Rankings
- Cease
- Williams
- Brown
- Kay
- Imanaga
- Bradish
Top MLB DFS Stacks for June 22
- Brewers (at Brady Singer)
- Orioles (at Sam Aldegheri)
- Red Sox (at Ryan Feltner)
- Cardinals (vs. Merrill Kelly)
- Angels (vs. Kyle Bradish)
- Cubs (at Kodai Senga)
- Mets (vs. Shota Imanaga)
- Twins (vs. Eric Lauer)
- Dodgers (at Zebby Matthews)
So, Red Sox in Coors. I assume this will be the chalk. With Coors, it’s generally useful to ask yourself whether you’d be as excited to play this stack in a different ballpark in the same matchup. If the Sox were facing Ryan Feltner at Fenway, would they be a great stack worthy of significant ownership?
To me, that is an easy answer, and it is a resounding “fuck no.” Not because Feltner is anything special, but because the Red Sox are a junky offense that doesn’t ever warrant extreme ownership. On the season, this bunch has a collective .148 ISO and a .301 wOBA against right-handed pitching, which is about as mediocre as it gets. The only Sox hitters I’m remotely interested in playing are Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, and Jarren Duran. I will have a dusting of Boston in my portfolio tonight for risk management, but if I were playing one lineup, it would have zero Red Sox in it.
I’m much more interested in the Brewers, who get a park boost of their own going into GABP to face Brady Singer, who’s been horrendous this season. I expect Milwaukee to garner plenty of ownership in their own right, but it’s just a much better spot, and this is a much better lineup. It’s not the most thunderous group overall, but William Contreras, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Jake Bauers, and Garrett Mitchell all have solid numbers this season, while Christian Yelich has excellent long-term data. Cooper Pratt is a legitimately good prospect, while you’ve got stolen base upside with guys like Sal Frelick and David Hamilton. Singer has struggled mightily against hitters of either handedness, so I’m in on anyone here.
The O’s will take their swings in Anaheim against lefty Sam Aldegheri, who hasn’t pitched a ton at the MLB level over the years. He’s allowed a lot of power when he has pitched at this level without any semblance of strikeout ability. While I generally prefer to stack the Orioles against righties, it’s still a pretty good spot for Pete Alonso, Coby Mayo, and Taylor Ward (revenge!). Gunnar Henderson (.259 ISO) has hit for power against same-handed pitching this year, while Tyler O’Neill may still have some power left in there somewhere. Sam Huff is a catcher with legit power upside, as well.
I have to mention the Cardinals, who get a nice draw of their own at home against the Supremely Washed Merrill Kelly. This guy just doesn’t have it anymore, friends. Lefties are killing him (.288 ISO, .400 wOBA), so JJ Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, and Lars Nootbaar are up there among the best hitters on the slate, while Jimmy Crooks and Nathan Church are solid value options from the left side. Kelly hasn’t been a whole lot better against RHBs, keeping Jordan Walker and Ivan Herrera in the pool. I don’t like the Cardinals quite as much as I like the Brewers, but I like all of these teams much more than I like the Red Sox.
Both sides of the LAD/MIN game are interesting with Eric Lauer squaring off against Zebby Matthews. Lauer’s pitched better since his arrival in LA – predictable! – but I’m not fully buying it. Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis have smoked left-handed pitching this season. Nobody else in the lineup has, however, which kinda downgrades the Twins to mini-stack status for me.
Matthews has yielded plenty of left-handed power, so fire up Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, Ryan Ward, Freddie Freeman, Tommy Edman, and Dalton Rushing here, as usual. Lots to like here.
I don’t “like” the Angels, but they do make sense for leverage on that Bradish popularity. Donovan Walton, Zach Neto, and Wade Meckler have the best data this season vs. RHP. I never mind getting to Logan O’Hoppe as a cheap catcher.
You can hunt for power against Imanaga with guys like Juan Soto, Bo Bichette, and Mark Vientos. Kodai Senga has been rather awful in a limited sample this season. Not a great hitting environment in Queens, but PCA, Michael Busch, Ian Happ, and Seiya Suzuki are good sources of power.
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Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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