Hello, it is Tuesday. It’s already wildly late, so no time for shenanigans. Let’s dive in.
MLB DFS Pitcher Picks for Tuesday
- Parker Messick ($9,300, at CHW)
- Justin Wrobleski ($8,800, at MIN)
- Shane Baz ($8,200, at LAA)
- Robbie Ray ($7,800, vs. ATH)
- Sean Burke ($7,000, vs. CLE)
- Ryan Johnson ($5,500, vs. BAL)
Look, man. We’ve probably had a worse pitching slate than this at some point, but if we have, I don’t remember it. Things are GRIM. Parker Messick is the SP1 overall, which, frankly, tells you everything. In defense of Parker Messick, he is a good pitcher, but yikes.
Messick faces the White Sox, which is not a very fun matchup these days, though Chicago does have many high-strikeout hitters in there against lefties. Unfortunately, they also have a ton of power (.232 ISO, .364 wOBA), even without the great Munetaka Murakami. Messick’s strikeout stuff is more good than great (26.4%), and he has done a good job of limiting damage. I wouldn’t say $9,300 is an egregiously expensive price point, so I’m fine playing him despite the risk in the matchup.
Justin Wrobleski isn’t very good and his game has weather issues, so I’m not even sure why I listed him. Ignore!
In the name of Kyle Bradish before him, I expect Shane Baz to be very chalky for a matchup on the road against the Angels. This version of the Angels is a rather gutless, no-name bunch with a ton of strikeouts available (25.2%). Most of their power hitters are also on the injured list, though they will get Jorge Soler back for this one. Baz’s K-rate is down to just 19.8% on the year, though we’ve seen more from him in that realm in previous seasons. Baz’s swinging strike rate and Stuff+ numbers are both way down, so it’s probably a matter of Orioles Stank rubbing off on him.
I understand the play, but there’s nothing about Baz’s numbers that tells me he’s a good play outside of the matchup. At the ownership he’s likely to get, he’s very sketchy. But, hey, everything’s sketchy on this slate.
You just knew Robbie Ray would have to be an option on a slate like this, and here he is. Ray isn’t the strikeout machine he used to be (21.9%), while his poor control (11.2% walks) has reared its ugly head this season. He does have some things going for him, though. He’ll get to pitch in his pitcher-friendly home park, for one. For two, he’ll be facing the A’s, who are a much higher-K foe (26.1%) against lefties than they are against righties. The A’s still have a lot of power (.223 ISO), so it’s still not a safe play, but for the dollar, and for the matchup, I think I’d rather play Ray than Baz.
Sean Burke? Anthony Kay steamrolled his way through this trash-ass Cleveland lineup last night, and I think Sean Burke is a better pitcher than Anthony Kay (23.8% Ks, 8.5% walks). The Guardians aren’t quite as awful against righties (.137 ISO, .303 wOBA) as they are against lefties, but it’s still a pretty nonsense lineup without Jose Ramirez. They’re also striking out at a decent 22.4% clip, and, most importantly, Burke is only $7,000. On this slate, that’ll do just fine.
I think the price ($5,500) and matchup (BAL 24.2% Ks vs. RHP) make Ryan Johnson playable. The issue? Ryan Johnson is no good.
SP Rankings
- Burke
- Ray
- Messick
- Baz
- Johnson
Top Stacks for Tuesday
- Brewers (at Nick Lodolo)
- Red Sox (at Sean Sullivan)
- Padres (vs. JR Ritchie)
- Giants (vs. Aaron Civale)
- Reds (vs. Brandon Sproat)
- Rockies (vs. Sonny Gray)
- A’s (at Robbie Ray)
- Angels (vs. Shane Baz)
- Braves (at German Marquez)
Even on a slate without much pitching, the stacks hardly look great, either.
The Red Sox are at Coors again, where they’ll face rookie lefty Sean Sullivan. Boston is a horrible offense, though, and Sullivan will have the platoon edge over Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu, who are 2 of the only decent Boston bats in the first place. I like Willson Contreras here against any lefty, while Ceddane Rafaela and Andruw Monasterio (??) have good numbers against LHP this season. As was the case last night, I’m probably not playing this team, especially since they’ll get ownership.
The A’s-Giants game is an interesting one, even in a pitcher-friendly park. Robbie Ray will be popular, which is the case to get to some of the Athletics against him. Shea Langeliers, Zack Gelof, Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrum, Max Muncy, and Hunter Bolte have fared well vs. southpaws this year, while Colby Thomas has decent power in his bat. I like the A’s quite a bit for leverage on Ray.
The Giants face Aaron Civale, a legitimately washed right-hander. San Francisco has also not been as terrible offensively lately, which coincides with Bryce Eldridge’s promotion back to the majors. Eldridge, Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, and Casey Schmitt are always the headliners, while I never hate getting to Luis Arraez despite his incredible lack of power. The issue, as always, is you can only play one of Eldridge or Devers on DK, which is Very Dumb.
Brewers? These fuckers did us dirty last night against “Brady Singer,” and tonight they’ll face a better pitcher in LHP Nick Lodolo. Jackson Chourio, Andrew Vaughn, William Contreras, and Gary Sanchez are generally the Brewers’ headliners against lefties, while I’m still into Cooper Pratt on the cheap. The Reds on the other side of this one get Brandon Sproat, who’s allowed plenty of power to hitters from both sides. Elly De La Cruz is back in our lives, while JJ Bledway, Blake Stewart, Nate Lowe, and Noelvi Marte are the others on my radar.
JR Ritchie is one of the worst pitchers on the slate, but the Padres are one of the league’s most punchless offenses, and most of Ritchie’s issues have come against lefties, of which the Padres have very few. Jackson Merrill and Gavin Sheets are gonna look good here, but I don’t have a ton of faith overall. I’d still play Tatis and Machado if stacking. The Braves take their swings against the washed German Marquez, who does not belong on a big-league mound. The Padres have an electric bullpen behind Marquez, but maybe the Braves can do some damage early. Headliners are the lefties – Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris, and Dom Smith.
You can play the Angels for leverage because Baz is Probably Bad Chalk. Zach Neto, Jo Adell, Wade Meckler, and Jorge Soler are probably atop the list, while Donovan Walton has surprisingly decent numbers vs. RHP.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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