NBA DFS Picks Today: Top Lineups & Values

Last night’s slate turned out pretty well. I was binking a 20-max until the slate’s waning moments, which was a nice reminder that there isn’t much good in keeping tabs on proceedings while a slate is in progress, unless you’re a glutton for #pain. Or you’re looking for late swap opportunities.

Tonight, we’re looking at 8 games on DraftKings and 9 on FanDuel, including a Lakers-Rockets Rematch for the Ages. The Wolves are back in our lives for the second night in a row, and, overall, it looks like there are lots of ways to go. Let’s dive on in.

🏀 Slate Overview

Top injury news to monitor: Anthony Edwards, Michael Porter Jr., Bennedict Mathurin, and Aaron Gordon are all out. The Pacers are once again on the slate, and their entire roster outside of Pascal Siakam – who is out – are questionable. Kawhi Leonard, Daniel Gafford, Ace Bailey, and Naz Reid are questionable.

Best value plays: Ayo Dosunmu, Bones Hyland, Ryan Nembhard.

Top game to attack: Raptors at Bulls (TOR -7.5, 234.5 total)

Top stud: Nikola Jokic

Blowout risks: Thunder at Nets (OKC -19.5), Blazers at Pacers (POR -12.5), Warriors at Celtics (BOS -12.5), Jazz at T-Wolves (MIN -13.5), Nuggets at Grizzlies (DEN -13.5)

NBA DFS Top Picks for Tuesday

Ayo Dosunmu
Julius Randle
Bones Hyland

🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.

So, Edwards is out again. Ayo started and played 33 minutes in his stead last night, while Julius Randle takes on a significant usage boost. They’re both simply underpriced for their roles, and core plays are generally the players most likely to greatly exceed salary-based expectations. Ayo into chalk doesn’t feel great, but his SG/SF eligibility is incredibly valuable. Plus, this slate doesn’t currently have a ton of amazing cheap stuff elsewhere.

Bones Hyland played 28 minutes off the bench in this situation last night. He’s always happy to let it fly while he’s out there, and he’s up to 1.04 FP/minute with Edwards on the bench. Bones isn’t a safe play, either, but this risk is mitigated by the matchup against the horrible Jazz.

The Naz Reid news is worth monitoring. He was already dealing with a shoulder injury before he injured his ankle last night. I’ll be a bit surprised if he plays against fuckin’ Utah. Kyle Anderson played 24 minutes off the bench last night, and I think he’d be in line for at least that many again here if Reid is out. SloMo at $4,000 is a great play regardless. 4 T-Wolves in a lineup is a lot, but they’re difficult to ignore.

🟢 SAFE – Ayo, Randle, Bones

🟡 BOOM/BUST – Anderson

Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 3/16

🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.

Raptors at Bulls (234.5 total)

This slate is, unfortunately, laden with blowout risk. 5 games feature spreads of at least 12.5 points. One of the few that doesn’t is Toronto-Chicago. There isn’t much obvious value on Toronto given the lack of injuries, but the matchup is stellar, and ownership should be reasonable on all of them. I think Scottie makes for a very intriguing direct pivot away from Randle for $300 more. He’s been struggling a bit, but great get-right spot here. Poeltl will probably be the most popular play, though his salaries are gettin’ up there.

The Bulls are still playing their regulars heavy minutes. Josh Giddey just goes out there and triple-doubles every night, while Matas Buzelis, Jalen Smith, Tre Jones, and Leonard Miller have been consistently good. Nobody on this team is projecting for more than 6% ownership, so they’re great bring-backs if you’re rostering a Raptor on the other side.

Sneaky GPP Pivots

🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.

Josh Giddey
Jaylen Brown
Jalen Johnson
Kawhi Leonard

Jokic is the top overall play if you can afford him, obviously. There’s merit to saving on your top spend, though. It looks like Jayson Tatum may pull some ownership, though I don’t mind paying the extra $500 to get to Jaylen Brown for the significant ownership discount. People still think Brown is overpriced for his role with Tatum back, but that isn’t necessarily true. $9,200 is also a discount in the first place, and this version of the Warriors is legitimately awful.

Jalen Johnson is the only player on the slate with a realistic chance of matching Jokic’s upside. He’s $10,700 in an elite matchup against Dallas, and his minutes have been quite secure with the Hawks fighting for playoff positioning. I suspect he’ll attract some ownership, but it won’t be egregious.

Kawhi is questionable with an ankle injury. The Pelicans haven’t been a total doormat recently, so there’s a pretty good chance this will be one of the few close games on the slate. If he plays, I don’t really think he’ll be on a firm minutes limit. Absolutely nobody is going to play him despite his usage being through the roof without Harden/Zubac, plus now Mathurin is out.

🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?

If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:

Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys who are left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salary reflects. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one. Kawhi Leonard is questionable tonight with an ankle injury, and if he suits up, his usage will be there.
Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available. Toronto-Chicago looks outstanding on this slate.
Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Jalen Johnson checks every box — his minutes have been locked in with Atlanta fighting for playoff positioning, and he’s in an elite matchup against Dallas at a reasonable price.
Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. Ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor — guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear. On this slate, Jokic is the safest ceiling play if your budget allows it.
Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names. Tatum figures to draw heavy ownership tonight, but Jaylen Brown at $9,200 offers a significant discount with similar upside against a Warriors team that is legitimately awful right now. Fading popular plays and finding their cheaper counterparts is one of the fastest ways to separate your lineup from the field.
Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one. The Thunder are 20-point favorites over the Nets. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will probably fare well while he’s out there, but he’s an easy fade, in my opinion, given the likelihood this game gets out of control very early.