We get a wonky four-game NBA DFS main slate at DraftKings on Monday. It’s also a Wemby slate, while the 2nd tier is pretty loaded with guys like Jalen Johnson, Joel Embiid, and KAT.
Who needs to be in your NBA DFS lineups and how do you attack this slate? I’ll go over my top NBA DFS picks, some GPP plays, and which games are worth stacking up. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Cavs, Pistons, and Grizzlies.
- Best value plays: Sam Merrill.
- Top game to attack: Knicks vs. Hawks. 226.5 total and 2 pt spread.
- Top stud: Wemby.
- Blowout risks: Spurs/76ers (9 pt spread) and Cavs/Grizz (16).
NBA DFS Top Picks for Monday
- Evan Mobley ($8.3k)
- Dennis Schroder ($4k)
- Paul Reed ($4.1k)
- Kevin Huerter ($4.3k)
Update: Wemby is too easy to get to. Not making him a core play with Paul Reed news. But I’ll be playing him.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
Small slate and crazy early. Assuming the value is there, though, I don’t see much reason to fade Wemby. He owns the best projection, the top ceiling, and we may want those raw points. You can opt for the 2nd tier, but I’d probably just lock him in.
Jenkins grades out really nicely despite a suboptimal matchup and elevated price tag. I wouldn’t mind moving off of him depending on what opens up, but he’s been a stud for Detroit and you could argue he’s too cheap. The Pistons may also be without some more bodies, which could make him even safer and open up some DET value.
Merrill is a placeholder value but both Harden and Spida are currently listed as questionable. They played last night and are huge favorites against Memphis, so don’t be shocked if one or both are rested. If that happens, Merrill is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to our interest in the Cavaliers.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 4/6
Right now the plan is to build around Wemby. There should end up being enough value to make that easy. Obviously you can leverage the Wemby interest and load up on the 2nd tier, but I’d rather just get different with my values or 2nd spend.
- 🟢 SAFE – Wemby. Top projection by miles. Mild blowout risk, but whatever.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Jenkins and Merrill. Matchup is not great for Jenkins and Merrill is very scoring reliant.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 4/6
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
Want to target the best NBA DFS environments? This chart combines pace of play, game totals, and spreads to highlight the best (and worst) spots for stacking purposes:
Monday’s NBA DFS GPP Pivots
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Jalen Johnson ($10.5k)
- Paolo Banchero ($8.9k)
Johnson is $1k cheaper than Wemby and owns the 2nd best projection of the slate. He can nuke against anyone and you save some cash. I don’t hate it, but I will say that New York’s interior defense could take away the best part of this game potentially.
Banchero is a similar play in that we can save some cash compared to Wemby, JJ, and the top Philly guys. He’s even cheaper than the Knicks or Cavs studs. His projection and matchup also aren’t great, so all of this will combine to give him next to no ownership.
These are both pure ownership plays. The slate isn’t very big and right now the ownership seems pretty accurate across the board.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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