Yesterday’s NBA DFS Core Plays were mostly fantastic. Queen, Sexton, and Fears all went bananas. Sensabaugh was a dud, but one you could have easily survived. I also loved LaMelo Ball as a GPP play and even mentioned Jaylen Brown. In Discord I shouted Julian Reese, who smashed.
My one miss? I wasn’t around last night to vouch for Jordan Poole. We did discuss in Discord that the Pels would be incredibly shorthanded and that any of their options would have been viable. Plenty of people in Discord took advantage in the end, and hopefully you were among them. If you’re new to the site and need help building NBA DFS lineups, sign up now and get access to everything we post for the entire month. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Kawhi, SGA, Spida, Rollins.
- Best value plays: Dyland Harper. Other Spurs, Grizz, and perhaps OKC guys as well.
- Top game to attack: Hawks vs. Cavs. 236.5 total and 2 point spread.
- Top stud: Jokic. Wemby is doubtful and Jokic gets the Grizz.
- Blowout risks: MIL/DET, MEM/DEN, OKC/LAC, and DAL/PHO. Lot’s of risk out there!
NBA DFS Top Picks for Wednesday
- Deni Avdija ($9k)
- Dylan Harper ($5.5k)
- Bones Hyland ($5k)
- Naz Reid ($5.7k)
Update: Minnesota is resting a ton of guys, making Naz and Bones borderline must plays. You can fade anyone in tourneys, but even on the road against Orlando they look really good. Deni is the top spend of the slate. Harper benefits from Wemby/Castle sitting. The key decision is to Jokic or not to Jokic. Right now I am coming in under-weight and pairing Flagg with Deni.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
Wemby and Castle are doubtful, so we can look to Spurs for value. Fox and Kornet both look good and I also wouldn’t mind Keldon, Vassell, or Champaigne. But Harper is the first guy I am looking at due to price and projection.,
Jokic is a very tough fade on a slate that already has plenty of value and will only be getting more. The blowout risk against a shorthanded Grizzlies team is very real, so if you want to fade an expensive Joker, I do get it.
Deni projects way too well for his salary. I also like Clingan and Jrue, as the matchup with the Spurs isn’t nearly as scary if Wemby/Castle don’t play. More specifically, Deni could feast inside and score at will if that’s the case.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 4/8
There’s so much value on this slate, so I’m probably not fading Jokic. I will say the 2nd tier could be loaded and I expect OKC to sit some guys. I will be very interested in the likes of Jaylin Williams and others if that happens.
The non-Jokic stuff is good enough to chase after if we agree Denver coasts and he doesn’t get 35+ minutes. Can we survive a $12.5k Jokic getting “just” 60-65 on this slate? Probably. Can we survive Jokic getting 80-90? Probably not. That’s the decision we need to make.
- 🟢 SAFE – Jokic and Deni. Very high floors and ceilings. Deni is more volatile and Jokic has blowout risk, of course.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Harper. Rookie with low floor but he should be fine.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 4/8
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
This chart highlight the best NBA DFS game environments, factoring game totals, point spreads, and pace of play. It combines all that data and shows you which matchups stand out so you don’t have to research it:
Monday’s NBA DFS GPP Pivots
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Cooper Flagg ($9.8k)
- Donovan Clingan ($7.5k)
- Jalen Johnson ($10.3k)
These guys look like awesome tourney plays right now. Obviously Jokic is the top play and Deni looks great, but we can consider fading one of them and playing one of these guys instead.
Clingan is natural Deni leverage, along with Jrue. But I think you could really just stack up the Blazers/Spurs game to some degree if you wanted to.
Flagg is not going to pull crazy ownership unless teams start sitting studs left and right. But chalky Deni and Jokic may be enough to keep his exposure from the field down. His matchup stinks and he’s pricey, but unowned Flagg is appealing.
Jalen is the safest of this trio and he saves you $2.2k as a leverage play against Jokic. Cleveland isn’t an unbeatable matchup and he comes in with a solid projection, but very little ownership.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
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