If you thought any of the last few NBA DFS slates were crazy, buckle up! Our NBA DFS Core Plays were good yesterday, but if there was ever a slate you needed some extra guide, Friday’s might be it.
The DraftKings main slate has a full 9-game slate to work through, and the injury reports are harrowing. It’s going to get ugly out there, so allow us to sift through the madness and identify the best NBA DFS picks to build around. I’ll also touch on my favorite GPP plays and top game environments for stacking. Remember, signing up for NBA DFS plays is just $5.99, and that low monthly fee gets you access to EVERYTHING else on the site – MMA, MLB, UFL, you name it. Let’s build!
🏀 Slate Overview
- Top injury news to monitor: Everyone? Lot’s of bodies out, so keep your head on a swivel!
- Best value plays: Lot’s! Nets, Wizards, Bulls, and Pacers stand out the most so far.
- Top game to attack: Cavs vs. Hawks (233.5 total), Heat vs. Wizards (244.5 total).
- Top stud: Tyrese Maxey. FML.
- Blowout risks: A lot. FIVE games have spreads north of 10. Nice work, NBA.
NBA DFS Top Picks for Friday
- Bam Adebayo ($9.3k)
- Maxey/PG-13 ($9.5k/$8.3k)
- Derik Queen ($6.1k)
- Jeremiah Fears ($7.1k)
Update: A ton of Pels are out again and Queen/Fears project really well. The matchup at Boston isn’t ideal, but usage and volume should win in the end. Bam vs. the Wiz with Herro/Norm out is something. Miami technically can still finish ahead of Philly in seeding, but there’s minutes risk here. Maxey/PG-13 are next up, but Maxey has been the bane of our existence. The Sixers will play to win, however, so one of them probably makes sense. I wouldn’t blame you for fully fading them, however. Still like LaMelo, while Hawks, Hornets, Raptors, Magic, and Knicks all have something to play for and should be priorities in terms of spends. Buzelis being back hurts Chicago’s guys a bit.
🏀 New to DFS? Core plays are the guys you put in most or all of your lineups. They have strong matchups, clear paths to big minutes, and prices that make it easy to fit premium players elsewhere.
The NBA DFS Core will not look like this later in the day, I can almost guarantee that. I hesitate to have much conviction at all since it’s a 9-game slate and a ton of key players will be rested or be at risk of being limited.
Ie, I’m not touching the Pistons unless they flat out sit Cade/Duren. I’d be very wary of trusting the Celtics main guys, too. Pritchard would be a very tough fade if he gets the offense to himself, but could we trust he gets full burn? It’s going to be dicey out there, folks!
For now, let’s press on with what we know. We know the Pelicans are down all their main guys and neither Fears nor Queen are breaking the bank. The matchup with Boston stinks in theory, but they should be without some key defenders and the usage we’re getting might negate any matchup difficulty.
Millers and other Bulls could be in play again. They project pretty weakly due to a less than ideal date with the Magic (who will be motivated to win), but if they’re shorthanded again I think we can safely go there. Just keep in mind they’re not good and they could be tired after playing last night. For now, Miller seems like the safest of their top guys, while Olbrich looks like a pretty good punt for the moment.
Ball and the Hornets care about winning still, as they technically could still avoid the Play-In or at the very least secure their seeding in it. Unless they randomly sit their guys, Ball is going to stand out as one of the best spends. I can’t wait for Playoff LaMelo because his minutes will be locked in. If we can feel good about him pushing for 36 again like he did last game, he’s a great play.
Maxey is coming in as the top projecting play right now. Embiid is out and it’s the Pacers. I hate this. Yes, in theory Maxey is a great play. But the definition of insanity is trying the same thing the same way over and over and expecting different results. Shout to Albert Einstein!
I also am getting waves of that gambler meme where you are an inch away from digging for the big win and you give up right before your spike breaks through the rocks. Maxey will surely nuke the second I get off of him. If you want to take advantage of my pain and suffering, the logic is there for a blow-up game.
NBA DFS Lineup Strategy for 4/10
Mr. Continental said it best in Discord; “Just jam chalk and go”. He could be onto something there, as the chalk has been hitting like crazy. Except for Bones Hyland. Hate you, Bones!
But really, this slate is going to be pretty nuts. So trust the best plays and really don’t try hard to get different. First, it’s 9 games. So the ownership is going to naturally be spread out. I think working to get unique in 1-2 spots is always encouraged, but I am less worried about it tonight. Maybe pivot to a comparable play at a similar price, but for the most part I don’t see the point in taking big swings.
There is not one sure-fire stud we need, barring a Wemby return. But there’s enough up top via Maxey, Jalen, and Flagg to get excited about. We just need news and lineups to adjust accordingly.
- 🟢 SAFE – Fears/Queen. Sort of. The roles/minutes should be great. The matchup obviously is not.
- 🟡 BOOM/BUST – Miller and Ball. Not fully sold on either but we know Miller can have a low floor and Ball’s minutes and production tend to be GPP worthy, not necessarily Core worthy.
Best NBA DFS Game Environments for 4/10
🏀 New to DFS? We look for games with high point totals because more points scored = more fantasy points available. The “total” is the sportsbook’s projected combined score for both teams. Higher is generally better for DFS.
This chart highlight the best NBA DFS game environments, factoring game totals, point spreads, and pace of play. It combines all that data and shows you which matchups stand out so you don’t have to research it:
Monday’s NBA DFS GPP Pivots
🏀 New to DFS? GPP stands for Guaranteed Prize Pool — the big tournaments. To win tournaments, your lineup has to be different from everyone else’s. A “GPP pivot” is a player who will be lower-owned than his upside deserves, giving you a tournament edge if he performs well.
- Jalen Johnson ($10.5k)
- Jalen Brunson ($9.4k)
- Ryan Rollins ($9k)
We need news and updated ownership. Atlanta still has incentive to win, however, so logic suggested they’ll give a shit. Jalen fouled out and was abysmal the last time he faced Cleveland, but he’s good so we can just bet on that not happening again.
I do tend to think JJ will be popular when the dust settles, perhaps just by default. That won’t make him any less appealing, just maybe not as sneaky as he currently appears.
Brunson and KAT are the same play. Their matchup with Toronto stinks, but they should play to ensure they hold onto the 3 seed. The Cavs are just one game behind them, after all. Either one of them could nuke, but neither look particularly great. It’s simply a GPP play and hoping they wreck at low ownership.
Rollins might not be owned no matter what. He’s still safely topping 30 minutes with nice usage and the Nets don’t care about winning. Rollins can still offer a solid ceiling and his price and other better options should combine to make him go overlooked. He looks like a pretty solid GPP play.
🏀 Not Sure Where to Start?
If you’re newer to DFS and feeling overwhelmed, here’s how to approach it:
- Know what contest you’re entering before you pick a single player. Cash games (50/50s, head-to-head) pay out the top half of the field. Your goal is a safe, reliable lineup. GPP tournaments pay out the top 15-20%, with most of the prize pool at the very top. Your goal there is the ceiling. These two goals require completely different lineups.
- Shorthanded teams are your best friend. When a team is missing rotation players, the guys left get more minutes, more shots, and more fantasy opportunities than their salaries reflect. That’s the formula. Check every team’s injury report before building — not as an afterthought, but as step one.
- Avoid blowout games unless you’re on the right side. High game totals tell you where the points are — the total is the sportsbook’s projected combined score. Higher total = more points on the floor = more fantasy points available.
- Minutes are the currency of DFS. Always ask: how many minutes is this guy going to play? A player can’t score if he’s on the bench. Before you add anyone to your lineup, ask yourself: is his role clearly defined tonight? Does he have a path to 28+ minutes? Then that guy is probably viable.
- Understand floor vs. ceiling before you decide who to play. Floor is the minimum you can reasonably expect from a player. The ceiling is the maximum upside if everything goes right. In cash games, you want floor guys who almost certainly hit their value. In tournaments, you want ceiling — guys who can go nuclear.
- Ownership can be your edge — use it. In GPPs, the field chases names or super-owned options. We can leverage that by playing comparable plays with lower ownership.
- Don’t pay for a big name if the context is bad. Salary doesn’t equal value. A star in a tough spot is often worse than a role player in a great one.
New to NBA DFS and need even more help? Check out our NBA DFS guide for extra assistance on how to get started!
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