Happy Wednesday! Baseball continues to roll on, so I guess I’ll continue to play it. We’re looking at a reasonably sized 9-gamer tonight. At first glance, this one looks like it’s skewed toward the pitching.
Several teams are still fighting for their playoff lives, while many more are just playing out the string. Obviously, teams with something to play for generally make for safer DFS targets, but we’ll try to sort everything out as clearly as we can.
Anyway, onward.
SP1 – Garrett Crochet, Blake Snell, Jacob deGrom, Max Fried, Hunter Brown, Sonny Gray
Garrett Crochet is typically the ace of aces whenever his turn pops up in the Red Sox’ rotation. Boston is one of the teams fighting for a Wild Card spot, though Crochet gets a tough draw this evening at a very low-strikeout Blue Jays outfit (18.1% vs. LHP). Crochet’s own strikeout skills are elite enough (31.4%) to put him in play in any matchup, and I do like that Toronto’s lineup, while high-contact, is also pretty low-power vs. LHP (.147 ISO). We’re not getting much of a discount at $10,700, so let’s see what else we got.
Max Fried destroyed the Orioles in his last start, as the Orioles continue to suck ass against left-handed pitching. Fried is still only slightly above-average for Ks (23.5%) despite his 13-strikeout effort last time out. The White Sox are another fairly low-power offense (.131 ISO vs. LHP), albeit with an average 21% team K-rate. I expect another decent enough outing from him, I’m just not sure this is the spot to be chasing a ceiling game at $9,700.
Blake Snell ($10,200) has been dominant, with a strikeout rate north of 34% over the last month. The walks (10.5%) are still high, but that’s Blake Snell. Arizona doesn’t strike out (17.3%) against lefties, and this game matters to both teams. Snell doesn’t appear to be garnering a ton of ownership on this slate, so I’m fine with him for GPPs, though I prefer it for multi-entry, larger-field contests.
The Rangers’ playoff hopes are kaput as of last night, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Rangers treat Jacob deGrom tonight against the Twins. He’s improved as the season’s progressed – up to 31.8% Ks over the last 30 days – but given his age and injury history, I see no reason for the Rangers to push it with deGrom in this game. I like the $9,000 salary if we knew we were getting a full leash, but there’s a lot of uncertainty. Plus, he’s projected to be pretty chalky. Don’t love it at all.
The Astros have really faded of late. They’re still mathematically alive, but they’re playing like a team that already knows it’s screwed. I do think Hunter Brown will get a full workload tonight, but he gets a big park downgrade going into Sacramento to face the A’s. Brown’s strikeout rate is also down to 25.5% over the last month, while his control has looked wonky. $9,200 is fine, but I’ll be under the field here.
Sonny Gray ($8,500) is the cheapest of the pitchers getting the SP1 label as the Cardinals continue their series in San Francisco. It’s a long shot, but the Cardinals are still alive in the NL Wild Card race. Gray’s ceiling is usually closer to 90 pitches than 100, but this is a park upgrade, and he’s been terrific over the last month (30% Ks).
Of all the high-priced pitchers, I’ll rank Gray first in terms of priority, thanks in part to the affordable salary.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Sonny Gray | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Garrett Crochet | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Blake Snell | ❌ | ✅ |
| 4. Max Fried | ❌ | ✅ |
| 5. Hunter Brown | ❌ | ✅ |
| 6. Jacob deGrom | ❌ | ✅ |
SP2 – Stephen Kolek, Luis Castillo, Luis Severino, Jonah Tong, Taj Bradley, Tanner Gordon
The pool of viable pitchers tonight is a deep one. We saw Bryce Miller generate significant ownership at $7,000 last night at home against the Rockies, and tonight it’s Luis Castillo’s turn to be the mega-chalk SP2.
Castillo is simply a better pitcher than Miller, especially at home. He’s been excellent in all facets against righties (24.7% Ks), and Colorado’s lineup is only likely to have a couple of LHBs in it. They’re striking out a ton (26.8%), and their power numbers are generally inflated thanks to Coors. He’s going to be higher-owned than Miller was, and I can’t really think of any reason other than the ownership as a reason to fade him. I won’t have Castillo in all of my lineups because I never have anyone in all of my lineups, but I expect him to be my highest-owned SP.
Stephen Kolek is not a guy we play often – or ever – but tonight he’s starting for Kansas City against the Angels. We saw Cole Ragans strike out 10 of these dweebs just last night in only 5 innings. Let’s not mistake Stephen Kolek for Cole Ragans, but the Angels’ lineup is a joke at this point. They’re striking out 26.5% of the time vs. RHP. Kolek is more of a groundball guy (52.2%) than a guy who’ll rack up Ks (17.2%), but he’s $7,000 ish a path to 95-100 pitches in a great matchup. I will play Kolek more than the field, for sure.
Luis Severino hasn’t enjoyed pitching in Sacramento at all, but maybe he’ll enjoy himself tonight against the flatlining Astros. He’s a shell of his old self from a strikeouts standpoint (17.4%), but he’s also dodging barrels and limiting damage well enough. The home splits are definitely concerning, though paying just $6,200 for him helps mitigate the risk. Houston’s not hitting for power against righties (.155 ISO) without Yordan Alvarez, though they’re also not a high-K lineup (18.8%). I’m fine punting with Severino where I need the extra salary.
Jonah Tong ($6,700) was a heralded prospect when the Mets called him up, and tonight he’ll draw the Cubs in Chicago. Tong has struggled, but the numbers say he’s been victimized by bad luck. His 5.94 ERA looks fraudulent compared to his 3.95 SIERA, and the 28.8% K-rate is impressive. Walks (9.6%) likely aren’t going away, but he’s only managed to strand about 45% of baserunners. League average is closer to 72%, so he’s due for some of the good regression moving forward. The Cubs have been far less potent offensively in recent months, so I don’t mind taking shots here.
Taj Bradley has had a miserable season, though the Ks look a little more like the old Bradley (25.5%) since the Twins called him up. The Rangers’ lineup is watered down and no longer playing for anything, and I’m still a believer in Bradley’s talent. Plus, $6,000 is awfully cheap.
Tanner Gordon is $5,500 and starting for Colorado at Seattle. He’s been quite solid over the last month (28% Ks), especially compared to the rest of the Rockies’ horrid rotation. Seattle has enough power to be a scary matchup despite the pitcher-friendly park, so Gordon’s really just a punt leftover for MME.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Luis Castillo | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Stephen Kolek | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Jonah Tong | ❌ | ✅ |
| 4. Taj Bradley | ❌ | ✅ |
| 5. Luis Severino | ❌ | ✅ |
| 6. Tanner Gordon | ❌ | ✅ |
Primary Stacks – Yankees, Royals, Dodgers, Mariners, Astros
A good slate for pitching leaves us without a ton of can’t-miss offense on paper. The Yankees were a letdown yesterday, but yesterday is yesteday. Tonight they’re slated to face a lefty called Fraser Ellard. 80-grade name, no doubt. Ellard is an opener, with Tyler Alexander or Wikelman Gonzalez likely to pitch in bulk duty.
Can’t get too bogged down in splits with the White Sox rolling out a bullpen game, so we’ll see what the Yanks’ lineup looks like. I’m still happy to play the power lefties – Jazz Chisholm, Trent Grisham, Ben Rice – along with Aaron Judge regardless. I’d be cautious with guys like Austin Slater and Amed Rosario if they crack the lineup, as they can easily get pinch-hit for whenever Chicago deploys a RHP.
The Royals are still picking on the Angels, and tonight it’ll be Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi has really sputtered in a bad way over the last month. His walk rate (11.2%) is nearly as high as his K-rate (14%), and righties (.269 ISO) have murdered him. Another great spot for Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, and Salvador Perez, while LHBs (Pasquantino, Yaz, Jensen) could see lower ownership in the lefty-lefty matchup.
Shohei Ohtani is back in our lives as a hitter as the Dodgers take on Ryne Nelson. Nelson, while solid, also doesn’t have any massive strengths, especially against lefties. Ohtani is obviously the headliner, followed by Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, and Teoscar Hernandez, as usual. Ohtani as a one-off is always great, as well.
Tanner Gordon may not be the Rockies’ preeminent gas can, but he’s still allowing an ISO north of .200 to hitters from both sides. It’s always Cal Raleigh SZN, while we can get decent salaries on guys like Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor, and Randy Arozarena.
The Astros have possibly given up, but they’re still affordable and in an elite hitter’s park against Severino. I also suspect they’ll be lower-owned as a stack tonight against the righty. Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Isaac Paredes, Yainer Diaz, and Zach Cole still look pretty good, while we can add Jeremy Pena to the list if he plays.
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