Hello! Another Monday is upon us. Sad! Anyway, we’re looking at a solid little 7-game MLB DFS slate to kick off the week. The Astros are the visitors in Coors Field this evening, while we’ve also got an early rematch of last year’s epic World Series with the Dodgers visiting the Jays in Toronto.
Should be a good one, and the chalk is pretty clear. Let us win the money.
SP1
- Chris Sale ($9,700, at LAA)
- Jacob deGrom ($9,000, vs. SEA)
- Logan Gilbert ($9,500, at TEX)
- Joe Ryan ($8,200, vs. DET)
A trio of aces up top headlines things. Based on projections, Chris Sale is going to be Heavy Chalk in a matchup on the road in Anaheim against the Angels. Sale is off to a sluggish start in terms of Ks (21.4%) through a couple of starts, but he also hasn’t allowed any damage. I suppose it’s worth monitoring that this guy is now 37, but the velocity is fine, and the Stuff+ numbers are similar to what he posted last year, when he was still dominant.
It’s also helpful that Mike Trout is fairly unlikely to play tonight after getting hit on the hand yesterday against Seattle. The Halos still have some right-handed power to throw at the southpaw (.174 ISO, 10.6% barrels vs. LHP last year), though they’ll also strike out at a healthy clip (25.7%). I’d stop short of calling Sale a must on a slate with lots of quality pitchers, but he is the top overall option on the board.
Logan Gilbert and Jacob deGrom will tangle in Texas in a good, old-fashioned #AceOff. Gilbert got roughed up a bit in his last outing against the Yankees, but that’ll happen. DeGrom is another old (37), and he threw 79 pitches in his season debut in Baltimore last week. He was more of a good strikeout pitcher last season (27.7%) than the great one he’s been in the past, and the Mariners have been butt to begin 2026. I don’t really expect that to continue, but they’ve struck out more than 30% of the time vs. RHP early on. Because Sale and Gilbert have longer leashes than deGrom, I’ll rank him third of this group, though I’ll still play him plenty.
Gilbert’s ERA is 6.75 through 2 starts, but the 3.23 SIERA and 29.5% strikeout rate alongside elite control suggest he’s just had some bad luck. Texas has the lowest-strikeout lineup (21.9%) any of these aces will face, though I generally don’t worry too much about matchups with guys like Gilbert. If you need the $500, by all means, pivot down to deGrom, but I like Gilbert quite a bit.
Joe Ryan ($8,200) is way cheaper than the others, but I threw him in here for funsies. Ryan posted similar strikeout numbers last season (28%) to deGrom, albeit with a lot more power risk (11.5% barrels). His barrel rate is all the way up over 19% early on this season, and tonight he gets a neutral draw against the Tigers. I’m not in love with Ryan facing 5 left-handed hitters, but there are plenty of Ks to be found with Detroit, too (24.4%). I think it’s just Ryan being too cheap. He’ll attract some ownership as a result, but I don’t really care.
Mixing and matching these top 4 guys in lineups is pretty easy.
SP1 Rankings
- Sale
- Gilbert
- Ryan
- deGrom
SP2
- Jose Soriano ($7,200, vs. ATL)
- Casey Mize ($7,700, at MIN)
- Erick Fedde ($6,300, vs. BAL)
Things don’t look amazing down here. The best pitcher of the lot is very easily Jose Soriano, who checks in at a still-too-cheap $7,200 salary at home against the Braves. Early in the season, he looks like the same guy we saw last year. Soriano can pile up some Ks against righties (27.6%) with an elite groundball rate (64.3%). Walks (11.1%) remain an issue, while the strikeouts drop off considerably vs. LHBs (18.8% this year, 19.2% last year).
He’s projected to face just 3 right-handed hitters in the Atlanta lineup, and Austin Riley is the only high-strikeout bat (30.8% vs. RHP). This offense is also not particularly groundball-prone. I’m not a fan of the matchup, but I am a fan of the $7,200 salary on a talented right-hander. Because of that, I think Soriano a solid play, though I still think he’ll lag behind the top 4 in terms of exposure for me.
Casey Mize is average across the board, and the 9 Ks in his last start against the DBax look like an anomaly. Minnesota has a few high-strikeout bats, but overall they make solid contact (21.9%) with sneaky power (.199 ISO, 11% barrels). I’d rather find the extra $500 for Ryan or save the $500 with Soriano, but I suppose Mize will be in my player pool for multi-entry. I doubt I’ll get a lot of him.
Erick Fedde is the cheapest pitcher I’ll consider at $6,300 at home vs. the O’s. He’s a low-strikeout right-hander with dicey control. Even the groundball stuff seems to have dried up. The Orioles are another team that’ll strike out fairly often (24.7%), but they also hit for a ton of power (.202 ISO, 12% barrels vs. RHP). You know what? Forget I mentioned Fedde.
SP2 Rankings
- Soriano
- Mize
- Getting run over by a speeding locomotive
- Fedde
Primary Stacks
- Astros (at Ryan Feltner)
- Rockies (vs. HOU bullpen)
- Orioles (at Erick Fedde)
- Dodgers (at Max Scherzer)
So, Coors Field. Hunter Brown was supposed to start this game for the ‘Stros, but he landed on the IL yesterday. So, something called a “Cody Bolton” will start instead. Bolton has had trouble with walks and home runs in his career to this point. Not a great mix for Colorado!
The Rockies are #Bad, but they do have the occasional decent bat. Bolton projects for an average right-handed split. I’d prioritize the lefties hitting high in the lineup – Troy Johnston, Mickey Moniak, “TJ Rumfield.” Hunter Goodman is always your Top Overall Option from the Rocks, while I’ll get to Ezequiel Tovar, Willi Castro, Jordan Beck, Jake McCarthy, and Twins legend Edouard Julien in full stacks. Colorado is my favorite offense on the slate. I take no pleasure in reporting this.
The Astros will take on more ownership, as visitors in Colorado tend to do. This offense has been electric to begin the season, too. Didn’t see that coming. They’ll face Ryan Feltner. Feltner isn’t good, but he also…isn’t bad? There aren’t many strikeouts here, but he also didn’t really get shredded, and he limited hard contact, especially to RHBs. Other than The Great Yordan Alvarez, the Astros are almost entirely right-handed. They’ll probably be fine, but they’ll also be very chalky, and they’re pricey across the board. Alvarez is $6,500. Deservedly so. I’d play Jeremy Pena, Joey Loperfido, and Jose Altuve next. I don’t have a ton to add. Overall, I prefer the Rockies side, especially at what should be a sizable ownership discount.
⚰️
So, in the Fedde blurb, I pretty much talked myself out of playing him, and I’ll happily stack the Orioles on the other side instead. This lineup has a lot of talent, and they underperformed mightily last season. We’re seeing more of the same this year, unfortunately. All but one hitter in the projected order has at least a .159 ISO vs. RHP over the last 2 seasons. Fedde was atrocious last season, with a walk rate higher than his K-rate vs. LHBs. Walks won’t win you GPPs, but they’ll lead to big innings. Gunnar Henderson, Dylan Beavers, Samuel Basallo, Adley Rutschman, and Colton Cowser will all have the platoon edge, while you can fire up Pete Alonso against anyone, especially low-strikeout types like Fedde.
The Dodgers will take on beloved ex-Dodger Max Scherzer north of the border. This offense roared to life over the weekend in DC. Scherzer will still turn in the occasional good outing, but he should be overmatched in this spot. The old man’s splits are very extreme. He’s got some good K stuff vs. same-handed bats, but lefties give him trouble. Shohei Ohtani? Kyle Tucker? Freddie Freeman? Max Muncy? Good lefties everywhere, folks. I assume the field will prefer to pay up for the Astros, so I’ll gladly take the Dodgers if they’ll come in lower-owned. LHBs look much better than RHBs in this matchup.
Secondary Stacks
- White Sox (vs. Albert Suarez)
- Angels (vs. Chris Sale)
- Phillies (at Adrian Houser)
None of this is all that exciting. The White Sox look like they are Not A Doormat This Time, and Albert Suarez is one of the weakest arms on the slate. No strikeouts, no groundballs, etc. He had some success in 2024, but the underlying numbers suggest he was rather lucky. Munetaka Murakami, Colson Montgomery, and Miguel Vargas are legitimately good hitters with power. Murakami and Montgomery strike out a ton, but that shouldn’t be a huge issue in this matchup. These guys look pretty awesome to me.
For Max Leverage, you can fire up some Halos in your non-Sale lineups. Sale does have a gargantuan platoon split, even if he’s good at limiting damage overall. If Trout is out, the priorities are Zach Neto, Jo Adell, Jorge Soler, and Logan O’Hoppe for right-handed power. Obviously, Trout is your headliner if he plays.
This Phillies-Giants game in San Francisco is kinda One Big Bag of Whatever. Andrew Painter might be good, but he certainly overperformed in his first start. Adrian Houser has bounced around a lot over the years. He’s a good groundball guy when he’s right, but he won’t be missing bats. He’s also had some control problems vs. LHBs, in particular. I don’t mind a dusting of a very low-owned Schwarber/Harper.
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