Happy Tuesday! Nothing new here, just another day in the madhouse. I went to the dentist this morning – which is always a rewarding experience – and I’m looking at tonight’s MLB DFS slate before writing about it here. Just going about a normal Tuesday as if the sundowning septuagenarian dipshit ruling the world didn’t plainly threaten to wipe a country of 90 million people off the face of the earth.
On the other hand, baseball!
SP1
- Tarik Skubal ($10,500, at MIN)
- Garrett Crochet ($10,000, vs. MIL)
- Cristopher Sanchez ($9,700, at SF)
- Kevin Gausman ($9,500, vs. LAD)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto ($9,200, at TOR)
- Paul Skenes ($9,000, vs. SD)
Holy shit, man. There are many more ace-caliber pitchers on this slate, but I suppose I have to draw that arbitrary line between SP1 and SP2 somewhere. This is the most stacked pitching slate we’ve had in quite some time, and we also have Coors Field to contend with.
Not only do we have a ton of aces, but the pricing has also tightened up on DK, as Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet are both up over $10,000, while Cristopher Sanchez is knocking on the door.
Skubal is off to a mediocre start (19.1% Ks). He’s thrown only 74 and 87 pitches in his outings against the Padres and DBax, two low-strikeout foes. Skubal’s Stuff+ numbers are down across the board in the early going, but the velocity looks fine. The Twins (21%) aren’t a particularly high-K opponent, either, but they also don’t profile too well overall against southpaws (.167 ISO, .321 wOBA). I’ll certainly get plenty of exposure to the best pitcher in baseball, but let’s see what else is out there.
Crochet got roughed up a bit by the Astros in his last outing, but that’ll happen. The strikeout stuff continues to be electric (31.9%) along with elite control. He’s always at risk of serving up some dongs to righties – especially in a great park for right-handed power like Fenway – but the Brewers really stink against LHPs. Tonight’s projected lineup is sporting a collective .126 ISO with a middling 6% barrel rate vs. lefties over the last 2 seasons. Perhaps they don’t strike out a ton, but this is a good damage-prevention matchup for Crochet. I think he’s the co-SP1 overall with Skubal at a $500 discount.
Both pitchers in the World Series rematch get tough draws, obviously. Kevin Gausman has a 52.5% strikeout rate through 2 starts without a single walk, while his groundball rate is pushing 58%. Pretty good! I see no reason to play a guy against the Dodgers on this slate. Yoshinobu Yamamoto will live on forever in the nightmares of Canadian baseball fans. The Blue Jays’ offense has been piss-poor to start the year, but I don’t really expect that to continue. I’d rather play Yamamoto than Gausman, but I’d rather play neither.
Cristopher Sanchez gets a huge park boost going into San Francisco. The strikeouts for him are way up to begin 2026 (37.8%), but he’s much more likely to land in the 26-28% range when it’s all said and done. Sanchez is still a nice mix of Ks and groundballs, but I’d rather just find the extra money to chase the extra Ks in the Skubal/Crochet tier. $9,700 is rich, especially against an underrated Giants lineup. Sanchez is solid enough to play. I just wouldn’t call him a priority.
It’s weird to see Paul Skenes coming in this cheap ($9,000). He bounced back nicely in his 2nd start after a disastrous Opening Day. I think we can reasonably expect around a 30% strikeout rate with no major weaknesses in the long haul. The San Diego offense isn’t all that imposing, but they’re also a high-contact lot (20.5% Ks vs. RHP). I like the discount from Skubal/Crochet enough to play Skenes, though I doubt I’ll get to him a ton.
SP1 Rankings
- Crochet
- Skubal
- Sanchez
- Skenes
- Yamamoto
- Gausman
SP2
- Jacob Misiorowski ($8,700, at BOS)
- Cam Schlittler ($8,500, vs. ATH)
- Sandy Alcantara ($8,300, vs. CIN)
- George Kirby ($8,200, at TEX)
- Robbie Ray ($8,000, vs. PHI)
- Nate Eovaldi ($7,800, vs. SEA)
- Nick Pivetta ($7,700, at PIT)
- Taj Bradley ($7,300, vs. DET)
- Yusei Kikuchi ($6,200, vs. ATL)
Walks are always a concern with Jacob Misiorowski (11.1%), but strikeouts (40%) are the name of the game. This is a park downgrade going into Fenway, and the Red Sox have some thunder (.180 ISO). They’re not a particularly patient lineup, though, and they’ll whiff (23.5% vs. RHP). The pitch count is also good, as he’s topped 90 in both starts. I could see the Miz getting a lot of ownership here, though, and I think there are enough alternatives to where I’m not all that excited to play him if he’s chalk.
Nick Pivetta ($7,700) and Robbie Ray ($8,000) are the standouts down here. Pivetta’s walk rate is high to begin the year (13.5%), but that should improve. The strikeouts (32.4%) remain, and PNC Park is a nice place to pitch. The Buccos have a little more power this season, but they’ll also still swing and miss (23.6%). The main thing is the salary. I think Pivetta is capable of delivering a similar score to someone like Sanchez or Skenes at a considerable discount.
Ray may not be the high-strikeout pitcher he was in his Cy Young-winning days, but he’s still respectable in that regard (25.6%). The decrease in strikeouts is also countered by a decrease in walks, and power risk is generally muted by pitching in San Francisco. The left-hander will have the platoon edge over some of the Phillies’ more imposing hitters, and there are some very high-K bats, especially toward the bottom of the order. I like Ray a lot.
Cam Schlittler and his dicey name both look like the real deal so far. He hasn’t walked anyone, he’s kept the ball on the ground nearly 48% of the time, and his strikeout rate is through the roof (39.5%). None of that is sustainable, but he was excellent last season after debuting, so I assume he’s simply a good pitcher. The A’s get a park downgrade leaving Sacramento. We know they’ll hit for power, but they’ve also been very strikeout-prone early in the season (30.9% vs. RHP). The $8,500 salary is a good deal, and I prefer him to the similarly priced Misiorowski.
Kirby, Alcantara, Eovaldi, and Bradley are larger-field leftovers.
SP2 Rankings
- Pivetta
- Ray
- Schlittler
- Misiorowski
- Eovaldi
- Bradley
- Kikuchi
- Alcantara
- Kirby
Primary Stacks
- Rockies (vs. Mike Burrows)
- Astros (at Kyle Freeland)
- Reds (at Sandy Alcantara)
- Braves (at Yusei Kikuchi)
- Yankees (vs. Aaron Civale)
The prevalence of aces makes things difficult on the hitting side, and we will also get heavy ownership on Coors Field as a result.
Mike Burrows is supposed to be a pretty good pitcher, but he’s been hittable through his first 2 starts in an Astros uniform. Right-handed hitters barreled him up 11.5% of the time last year in a Pirates uniform, and there’s some thunder in the bats of Hunter Goodman, Ezequiel Tovar, and Brenton Doyle, even if we haven’t seen it a ton early in the season. Mickey Moniak, Edouard Julien, and Troy Johnston make the cut in full stacks. As was the case yesterday, I prefer the lower-owned Colorado side to the Houston side, factoring in ownership.
I expect the Astros to outscore the Rockies – thus winning the baseball game – but the ownership is likely to be out of control. Houston’s lineup just profiles much more favorably against lefties, and we know Kyle Freeland is often a punching bag when he toes the rubber in his home stadium. I doubt Yordan Alvarez will be contrarian, but I do think the lefty-lefty matchup will scare his ownership down a little. The thing about Alvarez is he also rakes same-handed pitching. The field will probably be much more inclined to fire up Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Isaac Paredes, and Christian Walker. I like Cam Smith, Jake Meyers, and Brice Matthews if you need something cheaper.
If you are stacking the Astros, I recommend doing something to lower your lineup’s ownership product with your pitchers. With so many high-upside arms out there, it’s relatively easy to do.
The Yankees will take their swings at home against Aaron Civale, who allowed plenty of power last season between a couple of different stops. The right-hander has historically had a reverse split, yet he still allowed an ISO of .200 and a 9.5% barrel rate to lefties last season. Fire them all up. Aaron Judge is right there with Alvarez as the slate’s top overall hitter, while Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton, Trent Grisham, and Jazz Chisholm are next on the wish list. I do not care about handedness.
Nothing else is too exciting. Yusei Kikuchi is going to yield plenty of right-handed power, so Ronald Acuna Jr., Austin Riley, and Ozzie Albies is a high-upside mini-stack I quite like.
I’m still not ready to buy Sandy Alcantara’s stock despite a nice start, so the Reds are probably somewhat sneaky, even away from their bandbox home ballpark. Hunt for some dongs with Eugenio Suarez, Sal Stewart, and Will Benson. Elly De La Cruz offers power/speed upside.
Secondary Stacks
- Angels (vs. Reynaldo Lopez)
- Cardinals (at Cade Cavalli)
- Dodgers (at Kevin Gausman)
The Dodgers are stackable every night, even against an ace. Nobody’s going to play them, either, for whatever that’s worth.
I think Reynaldo Lopez probably sucks on the heels of a shoulder injury, so we can look to the Angels again. They’ll get a boost if Mike Trout returns, but we can roll with the righty power, as usual – Zach Neto, Jo Adell, Jorge Soler, Logan O’Hoppe. Lopez has been particularly vulnerable vs. RHBs.
Cade Cavalli is one of the slate’s weaker pitchers. The Cardinals are not exciting, but you probably don’t need your stack to score 14 runs in order to have a chance on this slate. Nolan Gorman, JJ Wetherholt, Jordan Walker, and Ivan Herrera have some pop.
Playing DFS since the days of DraftStreet, Kevin knows the ins and outs of DFS, specifically for NFL and NBA. He’s also been helping people win in fantasy football leagues for 15+ years and is one of many experts featured at FantasyPros.
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