It’s Friday, and we’re back to a typical schedule after some Opening Day-fueled, early afternoon shenanigans last Friday. That means we’ve got a beefer of a main slate on tap starting at 7:05 PM ET, and, fortunately, Coors Field is not involved.
As always, I’ll offer a comprehensive look at the DK slate here.
SP1
- Tyler Glasnow ($9,800, vs. TEX)
- Clay Holmes ($9,000, vs. ATH)
- Kris Bubic ($8,800, vs. CWS)
- Tatsuya Imai ($8,700, at SEA)
Not the greatest pitching slate, but it’s not a disaster, either. I suspect the heavy chalk way to pay up at pitcher will be via Tyler Glasnow, who draws the Rangers at home. Dodger Stadium is one of the more hitter-friendly parks in the league – especially for homers – but strikeouts are the main source of appeal with Glasnow (28.9% last season, 31.9% this season).
Glasnow can get himself into trouble walks, and this Rangers lineup will take their free passes (8.5% vs. RHP). Texas is also a neutral matchup for Ks (21.8%). Glasnow won’t usually allow a ton of power, it’s just a matter of the combination of high walks and strikeouts driving up his pitch counts and thereby shortening his outings. He’s a good play, though the ownership could get pretty extreme.
Dollar-for-dollar, my favorite option is Kris Bubic for $1,000 less. They moved the fences in at Kauffman – so it may be a better park for dingers than it used to be – but Bubic was solid last season after moving back into the rotation. He’s a rare reverse-split lefty – so his numbers are generally better against righties – which bodes well for a matchup against a projected Chicago lineup with 7 RHBs in it. While the Sox don’t strike out a ton (20.7% vs. LHP), they’re also quite punchless (.131 ISO, .323 wOBA). Given the dicey options at pitcher, Bubic looks terrific, even into ownership.
I have a tangential interest in Clay Holmes, a below-average strikeout right-hander who relies on getting groundballs and easy innings. Maybe there are a few more Ks in the offing against an A’s lineup whiffing nearly 30% of the time vs. RHP this season. $9,000 is steep for Holmes’ skill set, but at least Citi Field is pitcher-friendly.
Tatsuya Imai is the wild card among the expensive options. Through 2 starts in the majors, he looks like a good combination of strikeouts (35.1%) and walks (18.9%). He hasn’t been getting blown up, but that kind of mix gives him an extremely low floor but an extremely high ceiling. Just look at the game logs. Pitching in Seattle is nice, especially given how poor the Mariners have been offensively early in the season. I like the idea of rolling the dice on Imai as a direct pivot off of Bubic at a fraction of the latter’s ownership in GPPs.
SP1 Rankings
- Bubic
- Glasnow
- Imai
- Holmes
SP2
- Connelly Early ($7,700, at STL)
- Dustin May ($6,200, vs. BOS)
- Landen Roupp ($7,800, at BAL)
- Shane Baz ($8,400, vs. SF)
- Chad Patrick ($8,200, vs. WSH)
- Walker Buehler ($6,900, vs. COL)
The chalk pitching tandem is obvious, and it’s Tyler Glasnow + Connelly Early. Boston’s left-hander has a career strikeout rate north of 30% through a handful of starts at this level, while he’s at 25% this season. I think the 25% K-rate is more likely to be where he’ll land than the 30%+ mark, but both are good, of course. His walks are way up (15%) early this season, and he consistently posted walk rates in the 9%-10% range in the minors. The projected St. Louis lineup is a decent source of strikeouts against lefties (22.9%), while there are a couple of high-walk bats in there.
The main thing is the Cardinals don’t have a whole lot of power against LHP (.133 ISO), and Early is just too cheap for the skill set at $7,700. He’s also getting a nice park boost trading Fenway for Busch. I can’t punch many holes in Early’s case other than the walks and the likely ownership. There are alternatives we can get at lower ownership, though.
The most direct pivot appears to be Landen Roupp for a mere $100 extra on the road in Baltimore. Roupp is one of the more talented pitchers on the slate, and I doubt the field will treat him that way. The 31.8% strikeout rate through a couple of starts may not be sustainable, but it’s intriguing. The Baltimore lineup has a ton of Ks (24.9% overall). They’ll take walks, but control isn’t really a weakness for Roupp. He’s also got a nice groundball lean in addition to some power risk vs. LHBs. The O’s do have a lot of lefties, but I think the strikeout upside makes Roupp a pretty awesome play at less ownership than Early.
Dustin May gets a #RevengeGame against the Red Sox on the other side of Early’s matchup. He’s never quite developed into the high-K guy it looked like he had the potential to be early in his career, but he’s also just $6,200 in a pitcher-friendly park against a Boston lineup with plenty of strikeouts in it (23.5% vs. RHP). We can chalk his current 15.95 ERA up to some unfortunate luck. May is just better than a $6,200 pitcher, so he’s on my radar as a punt that’ll help me afford to spend some salary on bats.
Shane Baz is Shane Baz. He’s got some strikeout skills, but the control comes and goes. The Giants are another offense with some strikeouts, but they’re a little more powerful than they have been in previous years. This is also a park upgrade for the San Francisco offense. Baz and his blonde beard are capable of putting up a useful score in GPPs, but he’s also weirdly priced at $8,400. I just don’t think we really need to spend that salary with Early, Roupp, and May coming in at cheaper price points, but he’s still playable.
Chad Patrick against the Brewers? Walker Buehler against the Rockies? Good matchups for both, but Patrick is off to a wobbly start, and Buehler is just kinda bad at this stage of his career. $8,200 is probably more than I’d want to pay for Patrick, while Buehler will probably generate some ownership just because of Colorado. Meh.
SP2 Rankings
- Early
- Roupp
- May
- Baz
- Patrick
- Buehler
Primary Stacks
- Twins (at Patrick Corbin?)
- Giants (at Shane Baz)
- Dodgers (vs. Kumar Rocker)
- Yankees (at Steven Matz)
- Padres (vs. Tomoyuki Sugano)
I did not know Patrick Corbin was on the Blue Jays, but we learn new things every day. Corbin really was Not Terrible last season with the Rangers, but he’s been allowing lots of right-handed power for years, and strikeouts haven’t been a major part of his game in over half a decade by now. Byron Buxton (21% barrels vs. LHP) is very clearly one of the top bats on the entire slate. The rest of the Twins’ lineup is suspect, but I don’t mind Ryan Jeffers, Luke Keaschall, Austin Martin, and Royce Lewis in stacks.
I think the Giants are a decent offense, and Baltimore is a good park for lefty power, in particular. Rafael Devers is really the only potent lefty the Giants have, but I’m good with Willy Adames and Matt Chapman from the right side. Baz allowed a 14% barrel rate to RHBs last season. Luis Arraez and Jung Hoo Lee aren’t particularly good, but they’re lefties worth an add if you’re full stacking.
Hey, the Dodgers are back home. Kumar Rocker looks very splitsy. He can generate some groundballs, but the strikeouts have really fallen off vs. LHBs early in his career along with lots of barrels (12.9%) and, as a result, power (.203 ISO). Great spot for Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy, if you can afford ’em. Alex Freeland and Hyeseong Kim are also left-handed, while we can add Dalton Rushing to the list if he happens to crack the lineup.
The Yanks get a park downgrade going into the trop, but they’ll face Old Man Steven Matz in this one. This lineup profiles better against RHPs in general, but Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton tend to stand out against lefties, while you can fire up Paul Goldschmidt, Amed Rosario, and Randal Grichuk, too. There is some pinch-hit risk with those guys, however.
I’m not a fan of playing the Padres at home, but Tomoyuki Sugano is one of the league’s worst strikeout pitchers. He does skate by on good control, but his overall numbers are especially poor vs. LHBs. Jackson Merrill is pretty much San Diego’s only good lefty. I’ll add Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado from the right side, just because.
Secondary Stacks
- Guardians (at Bryce Elder)
- Rangers (at Tyler Glasnow)
- Brewers (vs. Jake Irvin)
These aren’t particularly good offenses, so they go down here. The Rangers are the leverage play against Glasnow, who could be 50%+ owned in some contests. Corey Seager, Brandon Nimmo, Wyatt Langford is the 3-man I prefer.
The Brewers? I guess? They have a high total at home against Jake Irvin, but it is the Brewers. Left-handed hitters have enjoyed a lot of success at Irvin’s expense, so if I’m playing any of these guys, it’ll probably be Brice Turang, Christian Yelich, and Garrett Mitchell. I assume this team gets some ownership.
The Guardians are Also Bad, but so is Bryce Elder. Elder’s high-groundball ways put Jose Ramirez and Kyle Manzardo slightly ahead of Chase DeLauter on the wish list, but I’m good with those 3 together.
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Kevin Cardner
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