Hello! It’s Wednesday. While there is some day baseball, most of the games will mercifully happen tonight. Nothin’ worse than an 11-game Wednesday afternoon slate, in one man’s opinion. We also don’t have to deal with the Suddenly Mighty Minnesota Twins, who are playing during the day.
Pitching has been pretty excellent for the past few slates, so we’re due for a clunker. Looks like we have one of those tonight. There are still a few aces out there and some cheapies worth a shout, though, so it’s not the worst shit in the world.
As usual, I’ll break down the way I plan to approach the slate. It doesn’t always mean it’s the right way, but an aggressive playstyle can pay off big in MLB DFS. What fun is min-cashing, anyway?
MLB Pitcher Picks Today (4/15)
- Dylan Cease ($9,700, at MIL)
- Shohei Ohtani ($9,500, vs. NYM)
- Bryce Elder ($8,300, vs. MIA)
- JT Ginn ($7,300, vs. TEX)
- Spencer Arrighetti ($7,000, vs. COL)
- Sean Burke ($6,500, vs. TB)
The two aces at the top are Dylan Cease and Shohei Ohtani, who project vastly better than anyone else.
Cease goes on the road into Milwaukee. The strikeouts (38.8%) have been there in a big way, but so have the walks (13.4%). This has always been The Thing with Cease. Some nights, he just doesn’t have it, but the strikeout ability makes him viable every time he takes the mound. It’s not like the Brewers are a great matchup for Ks (19.5% vs. RHP), and they do have some patient hitters (9.9% walks). Milwaukee isn’t a powerful offense (.156 ISO), but they’re pesky.
Ohtani draws the Mets at home. He’s been very splitsy through 2 starts (41.4% Ks vs. RHB, 19.4% vs. LHB) with high walks to lefties, too. Ohtani’s had walk issues in the past, though I think the current splits are pure noise. The Mets without Juan Soto aren’t too imposing (.169 ISO, .325 wOBA) with average strikeouts. He also got up to 96 pitches in the last game, so there aren’t leash concerns.
Given the $200 discount, I’d play Ohtani over Cease if I’m playing one lineup. I also expect Ohtani to be more popular as a result, so that’s worth considering. Pairing them is obviously viable given the lack of options on this slate. Both pitchers are great plays, all things considered.
The chalkiest cheapie will be Spencer Arrighetti at $7,000 at home against Colorado. Arrighetti has yet to pitch in the majors this season, but historically, he’s a high-strikeout, high-walk type similar to Cease. The Rockies will strike out (25.8%), and they don’t walk much. There is volatility in Arrighetti making his season debut at the MLB level, but the risk is mitigated by the $7,000 salary. The sticking point is the likely high ownership. I’m in on him because strikeouts are king, but there’s a wide range of outcomes here.
Every other pitching option is a secondary play, at best. For the most part, I’ll be mixing and matching lineups with Cease, Ohtani, and Arrighetti.
Sean Burke ($6,500) is cheap for a home date with the Rays. Tampa Bay’s lineup is just mid all-around (.157 ISO, .327 wOBA, 20.3% Ks, 7.9% barrels vs. RHP). Burke has pitched pretty well early in ’26 (24.2% Ks, 44.2% GBs, 4.8% walks), and the control numbers are particularly impressive after he walked more than 10% of hitters a season ago. If you need an alternative to Arrighetti at a fraction of the ownership, I’m fine with Burke.
Bryce Elder Might Not Be Terrible, but $8,300 is a bit rich for an average strikeout guy with a groundball lean against the Marlins. Miami has also been an extremely high-contact offense vs. RHP (16.9% Ks), so I doubt we’re getting enough of a ceiling to warrant the salary.
JT Ginn at home against Texas? Ginn was very splitsy last season with a 31.4% K-rate vs. his fellow righties, while he’s been the exact opposite of that in a tiny sample so far this year. The problem is he likely has a very short leash, and he’s more expensive than Arrighetti or Burke.
SP Ranks
- Ohtani
- Cease
- Arrighetti
- Huge Gap
- Burke
- Elder
- Ginn
MLB DFS Stacks Today (4/15)
- Yankees (vs. Jack Kochanowicz)
- White Sox (vs. Cole Sulser/bullpen)
- Braves (vs. Chris Paddack)
- A’s (vs. Kumar Rocker)
- Rays (vs. Sean Burke)
The Yankees did us dirty, but maybe Reid Detmers has finally turned a corner. They’ll face a significantly worse pitcher tonight in Jack Kochanowicz, a low-strikeout right-hander with control issues. Kochanowicz really got destroyed by LHBs last season, and we know the Yanks profile pretty well in these kinds of matchups. I’m much more comfortable playing them into ownership tonight.
Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Trent Grisham, Giancarlo Stanton, Jazz Chisholm, Austin Wells, and Ryan McMahon all posted double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP last season. Kochanowicz has a groundball lean, but the Yankees just don’t hit the ball on the ground. I have a preference for the lefties – notably Rice, Grisham, and Jazz – while Judge is great regardless.
Builds with Cease/Ohtani/Arrighetti + Yankees will be very popular.
Nobody else really stands out as much, but fully stacking anyone other than New York will likely get you different in GPPs.
The Braves will take their swings against Chris Paddack. He doesn’t have any discernible skills at this point. No groundballs, lots of hard hits, and strikeouts are hard to come by. Paddack’s splits are pretty neutral, so anyone’s in play here. You’re still starting with Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, and Drake Baldwin. I’m not sure what’s up with Austin Riley, but he still has a 10% barrel rate vs. RHP this season, so maybe he’s due for some good regression. No issues with Ozzie Albies and Mike Yastrzemski from the left side in your full ATL stacks.
The A’s are at home against Kumar Rocker, the weakest pitcher they’ll have faced in this series thus far. Rocker yielded a .202 ISO to LHBs last season, and we’ve seen more of the same early this year (.286). Music to the ears of Nick Kurtz, Lawrence Butler, and Tyler Soderstrom near the top of the lineup, while you can fire up Shea Langeliers against anybody.
The White Sox get Cole Sulser to open a bullpen game for Tampa. I’m not generally keen on stacking against bullpen games, but Chicago is pretty cheap across the board. Munetaka Murakami is the headliner with loads of power, while I’d get to Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, and Andrew Benintendi next. The lineup drops off considerably after that.
Burke may attract some ownership, so a dusting of Rays for leverage is fine. Cedric Mullins, Junior Caminero, Chandler Simpson, and Jonathan Aranda are the bats I like the most here.
Secondary Stacks
- Dodgers
- Astros
- Rangers
- Mariners
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