Today is March 30. Whoa! For some reason, I have a channel that shows nothing but AMC shows all day, every day. The channel is not AMC. I can’t explain it. They’ve got Mad Men on all day today, so I will be certain to get zero work done.
Anyway, baseball. 10 games on the slate tonight, so it’s a doozy. This is also the start of some new series, so that’ll be refreshing. Teams are still in the first go-rounds of their rotations, and we’re getting to the ass end of most of them. That leaves us with a pretty gross-looking pitching slate, but lots of good spots for bats.
Let’s win that money.
SP1
- Cody Ponce ($7,600, vs. COL)
- Edward Cabrera ($8,500, vs. LAA)
- Luis Castillo ($8,300, vs. NYY)
That’s…about it. No pitcher will cost ya more than $8,700 on DraftKings, and that’s Ranger Suarez against the Astros.
I suppose we should talk about Cody Ponce. This is a 31-year-old journeyman who’s back in the majors with the Jays after a very successful stint in Asia, pitching in both Japan and Korea. South Korea, to be clear. They probably don’t play baseball in North Korea, though I truly couldn’t say for sure. This will be Ponce’s first major-league appearance in a regular-season game since 2021, when he pitched 27 times out of the Pirates’ bullpen.
Last year, Ponce improved his velocity considerably in the KBO. After posting a middling 18.2% K-rate in Japan in 2024, Ponce’s strikeout rate skyrocketed to 36.2% last year with that spike in velo. That is…quite a jump! It is safe to assume Ponce won’t miss that many bats against major-league hitters, but he looked good in the spring. Tonight, he’ll get the chance to face that lowly Rockies lineup away from Coors Field. Last year, this lineup struck out nearly 26% of the time vs. RHP, and there isn’t much power here.
Am I concerned we’re getting Cody Ponce Chalk Night? Yes, yes, I am. Am I going to play him? Yes, yes, I am.
Looks like the other chalky pitcher will be Edward Cabrera, making his team debut for the Cubs after an offseason trade from Miami. He’ll toe the rubber at Wrigley with some wind blowing out to left field against the Angels. The Halos are another high-strikeout lot (25.9% vs. RHP), but they also hit for a ton of power. Cabrera’s platoon splits aren’t that pronounced, but he did post a 27.4% K-rate with a 50% groundball rate vs. RHBs a season ago. The Angels have 6 right-handed bats in there against him, though it’s not a high-groundball lineup. Cabrera is a fine play given the absence of great alternatives, but the Halos are also very high on my list of stacking options against him.
Thirdly, we’ve got Luis Castillo taking the mound at home against the Yankees. Castillo got off to a brutal start last year before rebounding in the second half. Seattle is the game’s best pitching environment, though Castillo is extremely splitsy. He was consistently excellent vs. RHBs last season, but lefties (11.1% barrels, .353 wOBA, .189 ISO) whipped his ass. The Yankees have 6 left-handed hitters to throw at him, so it’s far from a great spot despite the pitcher-friendly environs. New York also just has a shitload of thunder in the lineup (.236 ISO, .362 wOBA vs. RHP), though there are also some strikeouts here (24.3%).
Castillo is very boom/bust on this slate at $8,300. I think he’s a fine play just because It’s Gross Out Here, but I sure don’t feel good about it.
I have minimal interest in guys like Suarez, Roki Sasaki, or Clay Holmes.
SP1 Rankings
- Cody Ponce
- Edward Cabrera
- Luis Castillo
SP2
- Ryan Weathers ($6,300, at SEA)
- Bryce Elder ($6,500, vs. ATH)
- Kyle Harrison ($7,900, vs. TB)
- Jacob Lopez ($7,600, at ATL)
- Michael Soroka ($7,500, vs. DET)
Ryan Weathers is pretty clearly the standout here. I think he’s a decent pitcher, and this will be his debut for the Bombers on the road in Seattle. As mentioned, terrific place to pitch. The Mariners aren’t quite the high-strikeout bunch they were a couple of years ago (22.6% Ks vs. LHP), and all of their power is concentrated atop the order. The bottom half of the lineup has zero power, but they’re also pesky, lower-strikeout types.
The main thing is that Weathers is only $6,300. That’ll make him a very popular cheapie, but I can’t really argue against it. His skill set is pretty average across the board, save for some solid strikeout numbers against his fellow lefties (25%). Maybe he’ll go out there, pick up a few Ks, and limit damage across 5 innings. For $6,300 on a weak pitching slate, it’s probably enough.
I don’t like any of this other stuff, but let’s talk through it. I think the best pitchers of the bunch in terms of talent are Kyle Harrison and Jacob Lopez. Lopez impressively posted a 27.6% strikeout rate last year for the A’s. He was utterly dominant vs. LHBs, but righties (.346 wOBA, .205 ISO, 8.2% barrels) did some damage. Atlanta has 6 righties in the projected order, and it’s not a high-strikeout team (20.5% vs. LHP). The main thing is Lopez can rack up some Ks, which we can’t really say of many other pitchers on this slate. That alone puts him on my radar.
It hasn’t quite come together for Harrison yet, but the Brewers have a habit of maximizing pitching talent. The overall numbers were pretty average last year between stops in San Francisco and Boston (24.5% Ks, 8.4% walks), but he was formerly one of the Giants’ top prospects, and he was the headliner in Boston’s Rafael Devers trade last year. Tonight’s matchup against the Rays is decent enough, though they’re a very high-contact lineup (17.9% Ks). They also don’t hit for a ton of power, though, and $7,900 is reasonable enough.
Bryce Elder? In this economy? This guy is not particularly good, but he’s also $6,500 at home against the A’s. We know the A’s have a ton of power, but this lineup was a strikeout machine in the opening series in Toronto.
Look at that shit! This lineup has a 49.2% strikeout rate through 3 games. Probably not sustainable, but noteworthy nevertheless! This same lineup had a collective 21.2% K-rate last year vs. RHP, so they’ll obviously improve. Still, maybe Elder can skate his way through 4-5 innings without getting destroyed. He’ll be lower-owned than Weathers, and I don’t think the ownership gap will truly justify the negligible median projection differential.
Mike Soroka is $7,500 and facing the Tigers at home. Soroka pitched pretty well last season in Washington and Chicago (24.4% Ks, 44.2% groundballs), and I’m not scared of the matchup against Detroit. Playable. Not a priority.
Primary Stacks
- Cubs (vs. Ryan Johnson)
- Angels (at Edward Cabrera)
- A’s (at Bryce Elder)
- Dodgers (vs. Parker Messick)
- Blue Jays (vs. Tomo Sugano)
- Mets (at Kyle Leahy)
- Diamondbacks (vs. Justin Verlander)
So, the wind is blowing out to left again at Wrigley, the game’s most wind-sensitive park. The generically-named Ryan Johnson will start for the Angels. This is the team’s No. 2-ranked prospect, and he has good control with some ability to miss bats. Johnson has a typical platoon split from the right side, so lefties should look a little better. Good news for Pete Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Ian Happ, but still happy to get to Alex Bregman, Nico Hoerner, and Dansby Swanson in full stacks. The Halos also don’t have a particularly strong bullpen.
I like the Angels for leverage against the chalky Cabrera. I prefer the non-groundball hitters, which puts Jorge Soler a little behind Zach Neto, Mike Trout, and Jo Adell in terms of priority, while Nolan Schanuel and Yoan Moncada are fine from the left side.
I’ll play some Bryce Elder, but I’ll play the A’s more heavily against him given his meltdown potential. Once again, prioritizing the flyball hitters makes sense – Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Max Muncy, and Jeff McNeil. I’m fine with Tyler Soderstrom.
Toronto gets a potential nuke matchup against Tomoyuki Sugano and Colorado’s poor bullpen behind him. Sugano has excellent control, and that’s about it. He won’t miss bats, he doesn’t really keep the ball on the ground, and he was particularly ghastly against lefties (12.9% barrels, .228 ISO, .355 wOBA). That’ll put Daulton Varsho and Addison Barger at the top of the wish list, followed by Nathan Lukes. I’m not at all scared to play the RHBs here either – George Springer, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Kazuma Okamoto, Alejandro Kirk.
Kyle Leahy (R) is one of the slate’s weaker pitchers. I’m not thrilled by the ballpark, but Mets ownership should be reasonably low. You can always one-off Juan Soto. If I’m going further, it’ll be Francisco Lindor, Jorge Polanco, and Bo Bichette next.
The Dodgers are the Dodgers. Arizona will face Justin Verlander, who really struggled early last season before looking a little better in the season’s latter stages for the Giants. This guy is like 42 and, presumably, very attackable. The reverse split makes Gabriel Moreno and Nolan Arenado look pretty good, but I’m still starting with the big LHBs – Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and Ketel Marte in full stacks.
Secondary Stacks
- Giants (vs. Walker Buehler)
- Tigers (at Mike Soroka)
- Rays (at Kyle Harrison)
- Yankees (at Luis Castillo)
Not dying to play bats at Petco Park, but Walker Buehler was so inflammable last season that the Red Sox simply dumped his ass in the middle of the campaign. Maybe he’ll be better now that he’s another year removed from injury. Or maybe not. Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames is my favorite 3-man mini stack on the slate at low ownership.
I mentioned Castillo’s struggles against lefties. The Yankees have a ton of them, and they’re all quite good. The only downside here is the pitcher-friendly ballpark, but guys still hit dongs here from time to time. Cal Raleigh hit 60 of ’em last year, remember? Jazz Chisholm, Austin Wells, Ben Rice, and Cody Bellinger are the primary lefties on my radar, but you better believe I’m still prioritizing Aaron Judge from the right side in stacks. Jose Caballero and Ryan McMahon are solid values.
I love the Yandy Diaz-Junior Caminero 2-man for Tampa against Harrison.
Detroit is just a talented lineup. Soroka isn’t bad relative to the slate, but Arizona features one of the League’s Assiest Bullpens behind him. Riley Greene, Kevin McGonigle, Kerry Carpenter, and Gleyber Torres look like the priorities. Javier Baez is fine.
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