9 games on the board for Saturday night, headlined by yet another matchup between the Diamondbacks and Rockies at Coors Field. Coors faders were paid last night when the teams combined to muster just 5 runs, and we’ll see how things play out tonight in the game’s best hitting environment.
Coors is hardly the only game worth highlighting, though, as we’ve got 3 more teams projected to put at least 5 runs on the board. With 18 offenses out there to stack, we’ve got no shortage of options on such a large slate.
Primary Stacks – Diamondbacks, Rockies, A’s, Angels
Diamondbacks (at Chase Dollander)
Arizona didn’t get there yesterday, but today is a new day. Chase Dollander is one of Colorado’s top pitching prospects, but he’s generally struggled in his time in the majors. The Rockies sent him back down to work on things before calling him up to start last week in St. Louis. Things went well for him in that game, but we shouldn’t draw too many conclusions from a one-game sample. Plus, the Cardinals are kinda trash.
Dollander’s only struck out about 13% of lefties, while his groundball stuff has played significantly better against righties. That’s to say we’re starting Arizona stacks with the same lefties we’ve been playing all weekend – Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Geraldo Perdomo, Adrian Del Castillo, and Alek Thomas. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is the most attractive right-handed bat to mix into stacks, while I’m less enthused about the high groundballs of Tyler Locklear given Dollander’s respectable 54% groundball rate vs. RHBs.
Clearly, the Diamondbacks are the team most likely to score the most runs tonight. That said, it’s still not a great offense without Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor, and a distinct lack of power makes it entirely possible they score 8-10 runs yet still don’t quite post the scores you need to win GPPs.
Rockies (vs. Ryne Nelson)
As usual, we can expect the ownership on the Rockies’ opponent to be far higher than their own. I mentioned in the MLB DFS Pitcher Picks piece that I’m actually pretty interested in playing Ryne Nelson, which leaves me with minimal interest in Colorado tonight.
Nelson’s strikeout rate (25.8%) is legitimately solid against righties, and the Rockies are suddenly rolling out an Astros-esque RH-heavy lineup these days. Mickey Moniak is the only LHB projected to start this game for Colorado. I think he’s a terrific one-off, but I’m not thrilled with the idea of stacking a bunch of righties against a solid right-hander.
Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, and Ezequiel Tovar would be next on the list.
A’s (vs. Tyler Anderson)
I’m likely to be far more invested in the Coors Jr. game than the Coors game. We’ve got Tyler Anderson pitching for the Angels tonight, and the regression monster has finally come to swallow him whole. Anderson’s allowing an ISO of over .300 to hitters from both sides of the plate over the last month, which is ghastly stuff…unless you’re stacking against him.
Anderson’s always had a reverse split from the left side, which means he’s better against opposite-handed hitters. Right now, though, he’s kinda just getting obliterated by everybody. Shea Langeliers is probably my favorite hitter on the entire slate, and I’m more than happy to fire up Nick Kurtz lefty-lefty. Otherwise, we’re starting with Brent Rooker, Colby Thomas, and Darell Hernaiz, while we get a full punt third baseman if the $2,000 Brett Harris cracks the lineup.
The A’s are my top stack on the slate, and, as of now, it’s really not all that close.
Angels (at Luis Morales)
Morales is one of the A’s top pitching prospects, but he’s got some control issues and likely won’t have a long leash after throwing a season-high 57 pitches in the last game. Morales has some strikeout upside, but this is a hitter-friendly park and the Angels have a very powerful offense to go along with all of their strikeouts.
I’ll have more exposure to the A’s, but the Angels really won’t be far behind. The usual power sources – Zach Neto, Taylor Ward, Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Logan O’Hoppe – all look terrific, while I’m even willing to play the slap-hitting Nolan Schanuel given Morales’ issues vs. lefties early on. Yoan Moncada is a decent option, though he comes with pinch-hit risk.
Secondary Stacks – Padres, Twins, Dodgers, Royals
Blake Snell and Dylan Cease are high-upside pitchers, but they’re also their own worst enemy. Both guys can rack up the Ks, but they can also rack up the walks if things go south. That potential alone puts both the Padres and Dodgers on my radar as secondary stacks tonight. They’re fully 5-man stackable given the overall talent, and the ballpark is another selling point.
I prefer the Padres to the Dodgers when you factor in bullpens. The Dodgers are dealing with some injuries in the relief corps, while the Padres have assembled the Bullpen Avengers. Maybe they don’t see some of the elite high-leverage arms if they put some crooked numbers up against Cease early, but there’s certainly the potential for LA to get off to a hot start and wilt as San Diego starts to deploy some of their electric relievers. As is usually the case, I’m happy to play Shohei Ohtani as a one-off even if I’m not stacking his friends around him.
Snell could potentially just walk everyone without giving up power, but I’d start with San Diego’s power righties – Manny Machado, Ramon Laureano, Fernando Tatis Jr. – if stacking.
The Twins are on my radar as a value stack against Casey Mize. While a decent pitcher overall, his barrel rate is pushing 10%, and he doesn’t really have the strikeout stuff to scare me off of Minnesota. Even the post-purge Twins have power in Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall, Byron Buxton, and Kody Clemens. I don’t expect any ownership on this team, yet they could be difference-makers.
The Royals are one of the aforementioned teams with an implied run total north of 5 as they take on Sean Burke and the White Sox’ shitty bullpen. Righties have had the advantage over Burke this year – Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Jonathan India – but it’s not like he’s overwhelmed lefties – Mike Yastrzemski, Vinnie Pasquantino – either.
Some guy
Nice write up!