Happy Saturday! We’re lookin’ at a 9-game main slate on DK tonight, and, once again, we have to contend with Coors Field. The bats here underwhelmed in a big way last night, and we’ll see if that affects ownership this evening. I doubt it, but you never know. People don’t like to get burned by chalk.
Anyway, the pitching side of things is interesting again. We’ve got some high-end aces, yet none of them are in favorable matchups. We don’t have as many alluring salary-savers as we did on Friday, but there aer still some underpriced alternatives. Let’s dive in.
SP1 – Dylan Cease, Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Max Fried
Nice lil quartet of aces going tonight, and they’re squaring off against each other. Dylan Cease will visit Blake Snell in LA, while Sonny Gray will play host to Max Fried and friends. What this also means is none of them are in remotely good spots. Gray, Snell, and Cease are facing legitimately elite offenses, while Fried – the worst strikeout pitcher of the bunch (22.8%) – gets a good-but-hardly-great matchup at St. Louis.
I suppose I’d tentatively call Fried the SP1 because the Cardinals have been pretty middling (.122 ISO, .300 wOBA, 24.3% strikeouts) vs. lefties, but Fried’s been in wobbly form himself since dealing with a blister. He’s also the most expensive of the lot. While he’s a great real-life pitcher, he’s a lot more like Framber Valdez than a true DFS ace. I expect him to put up a solid score, but he also doesn’t really offer the sort of ceiling that will completely bury you if you fade him.
I think Cease, Snell, and Gray are more likely to put up those ceilings scores based on sheer talent, but the matchups downgrade all 3 of them. I expect Cease to be the chalkiest of that bunch considering the Dodgers’ recent woes, but I’m still not super geeked to be rostering a guy with a history of sketchy control against the Dodgers in the best home run park in baseball.
My favorite, all things considered, is Gray. His right-handed reverse split (29.2% Ks vs. LHB) should favor him against a generally lefty-heavy Yankees lineup, and Busch Stadium is the far more pitcher-friendly setting than Dodger Stadium.
I expect all of these guys to garner at least some ownership, as the field generally thinks paying up at at least one SP spot is the way to go. On this slate, I don’t think it’s at all necessary. All 4 of them are solid plays, but I don’t view any of Cease, Gray, Snell, or Fried as someone you absolutely have to play.
SP2 – Zebby Matthews, Ryne Nelson, Jason Alexander, Justin Verlander
I wouldn’t say the lot of SP2s looks amazing, but I do think the double pay-down strategy is viable.
The most glaring thing here is Zebby Matthews at only $6,700 at home against the Tigers. Detroit has some scary bats, but this is simply the case of a very good pitcher being wildly underpriced. Zebby is sporting a 30% strikeout rate with excellent control. The only blemish is a high barrel rate – so there is power risk – but you don’t often find 30% strikeout pitchers for a sub-$7,000 salary.
Matthews is gonna be chalky, but I don’t really care. I’m going to play a ton of him, especially because there isn’t any more safety in the $9,000+ tier.
Ryne Nelson is probably next on the list, even at Coors. We know the Rockies will strike out (23.2%), and Nelson has solid all-around numbers this year, including a K-rate pushing 26% against his fellow righties. Things can go awry in this ballpark in a hurry, of course, but at $7,000 the risk is mitigated. Pairing Matthews with Nelson and paying up for all the bats is a fun way to build.
Justin Verlander ($8,100), Jason Alexander ($6,500), and Joey Wentz ($7,200) are viable in tournaments, as well. Verlander’s rounded back into form a bit in his recent starts, and he’s in a pitcher-friendly park against an underwhelming Tampa Bay offense. Alexander’s shown enough groundball ability to potentially skate by in a so-so matchup against Baltimore, while Wentz gets a Cleveland offense that’s generally struggled vs. LHP on the year.
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