Another split slate on tap for Thursday. The main slate is supposed to have 5 games, though it sure sounds like that Giants-Braves game in Atlanta is not going to happen. That still leaves us with 4 games, if my basic subtraction skills have not waned in my advancing years, including yet another home game for the Athletics. For a homeless franchise, they sure do play a ton of home games.
For the purposes of this article, I’m going to assume that SF-ATL game gets banged, so I’ll write up our options from the remaining 4. Let’s go.
Top MLB DFS Pitchers (6/18)
- Jose Soriano ($10,000, at ATH)
- Ryan Weathers ($9,100, vs. CHW)
- Gage Jump ($7,800, vs. LAA)
- Aaron Nola ($7,500, vs. NYM)
- Noah Cameron ($7,300, vs. STL)
- Sean Burke ($7,000, at NYY)
- Sean Manaea ($6,500, at PHI)
- Matthew Liberatore ($6,000, at KC)
Yep, that’s all 8 pitchers. Nothing great!
As was the case last night, perhaps the best pitcher on the board is going into the worst context. Jose Soriano will take the mound in steamy Sacramento to face those pesky A’s. Whether Soriano is even the best pitcher on the slate is certainly debatable, especially given his recent drop-off after his hot start.
Soriano’s K-rate continues to tumble, though 25.6% looks about right for his skills. It could probably be higher. The issue is his control. His 11.7% walk rate is high and has been steadily climbing. He’s still keeping the ball on the ground (53.2%), which is useful against an A’s lineup with quite a few high-groundball bats (44.9% GBs overall). The A’s aren’t a good strikeout matchup for RHP (19%), while they will also take their walks (10.1%).
Braxton Ashcraft didn’t run into many issues in this spot last night, though Soriano is much more erratic. Plus, he’s $10,000. I think he’s a good play relative to the slate, but I sure don’t feel much confidence.
If anyone will be mega-chalk, I assume it’ll be Ryan Weathers at home against the White Sox. Like Soriano, he got off to a blazing start before crashing back down to earth in his recent outings. The left-hander still has good numbers for the season (26.6% Ks, 3.45 SIERA), but he’s also yielding lots of barrels (11.9%) and, as a result, lots of dongs. The White Sox have a two-faced lineup. 3 of the first 4 hitters in the projected order have ISOs of over .300 against lefties, which is gargantuan. None of the final 4 hitters in the projected order have ISOs north of .118, however. They’re also pretty neutral for strikeouts (19.9%). There’s merit to both sides of this one. I think Weathers might be my highest-exposed pitcher on the slate, which does not feel great, but it is what it is.
The third-most-expensive pitcher on the slate is Gage Jump, way down at $7,800 on the other side of Soriano’s matchup. This is a rookie still very early in his MLB career. He’s been decent so far (20.2% Ks, 6.4% walks, 4.10 SIERA). There are more Ks available here than the 20.2% rate would lead you to believe, and I think he’s going to be excellent. He might already be excellent. The matchup with the Angels is boom/bust, especially for a lefty. They’ll strike out (22.6%), but they also have lots of right-handed power (.193 ISO). They’re a little lower-strikeout and lower-power without Jorge Soler, but still. I like Jump enough to rank him among my favorite pitchers on the slate. That said, the Angels may also be my favorite stack. Such is life with this slate.
Aaron Nola has a 5.86 ERA, but he’s also facing the lowly, no-good Mets. His 3.94 SIERA tells us his ERA is fully fraudulent, and I think he’s still an above-average pitcher. Nola’s allowing a lot of power (9.3% barrels, .206 ISO), but the Mets are the Mets (22% Ks, .148 ISO vs. RHP). Nola is cheap, the Mets are bad, and he’s not currently projected for a ton of ownership. If Jump is more popular, give me Nola at lower ownership.
There’s nothing plus-plus about Noah Cameron except maybe his control. He’s not even really keeping the ball on the ground. St. Louis is also one of the highest-contact lineups in baseball against southpaws (14.4%). The lineup is a little like the White Sox, with lots of power hitters mixed in among a bunch of slap hitters. It’s a neutral pitcher in a suboptimal matchup. Fine, not exciting.
Sean Burke, also average in a suboptimal matchup on the road in New York. The strikeout stuff (23.3%) isn’t bad, but navigating all this lefty power is a tall task. I’d rather save the $500 and get to Sean Manaea on the road in Philadelphia. 85-90 pitches is probably the ceiling, but that’ll do on this slate. Manaea is solid (23.8% Ks, 3.60 SIERA), and he’ll have the platoon edge over the Phillies’ best hitters. It’s still not an easy spot, but he’s cheap, and being cheap is valuable today.
Matthew Liberatore is even cheaper at $6,000 on the road in KC. The Royals are the least-powerful lineup on the slate (.124 ISO vs. LHP), but I also don’t really buy what Liberatore is selling.
SP Rankings
I hate them all, so these are not firm rankings. Soft rankings, we’ll call ’em.
- Soriano
- Weathers
- Nola
- Jump
- Manaea
- Cameron
- Burke
- Liberatore
MLB DFS Stacks for Thursday
- Angels (at Jump)
- A’s (vs. Soriano)
- Yankees (vs. Burke)
- Mets (at Nola)
- Phillies (vs. Manaea)
Every team on this slate is stackable, of course. I have the least amount of interest in any side of that STL-KC game, though, obviously, I’ll get to some of that, too.
We’ll see where the ownership goes. Because both pitchers in LAA-ATH are viable, I could see the Yankees coming in as the chalkiest of the chalk. People aren’t gonna want to play Burke, so New York it is. Burke really hasn’t pitched poorly, but he’s had some control issues against lefties, and most of the Yankees’ better hitters are left-handed. Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Jasson Dominguez, Jazz Chisholm, and Spencer Jones have the best data from the left side among active Yanks, while Ryan McMahon (.167 ISO) has shown a little power, too. Burke hasn’t been notably better vs. RHBs in his career, so I’ll keep Paul Goldschmidt in the pool for stacks.
Soriano is erratic, but he’s also a tough pitcher to stack against thanks to his hefty groundball rate. Shea Langeliers and Nick Kurtz are the A’s best hitters, and they also happen to have the lowest groundball rates here…along with Jeff McNeil. Soriano is still pretty deadly vs. RHBs, so I prefer Kurtz to Langeliers, while Tyler Soderstrom, Carlos Cortes, and Lawrence Butler are next on the wish list. This is a very tricky spot for all involved.
I feel a bit better about the Angels’ chances against Jump, but this is also a less talented lineup against a potentially even better pitcher, so maybe I shouldn’t feel that way? I also assume the field will feel that way, so the Angels are probably pretty chalky here, too. The more I go through this slate, the more confusing it is. Great! Jump has pitched well and hasn’t given up much, but I’m still starting with the Big RHBs – Trout, Adell, and Neto. Oswald Peraza randomly has excellent numbers against LHP, so he’s on the short list. Jose Siri and Logan O’Hoppe round it out.
Ownership after that is probably pretty spread out. Neither pitcher in the Phillies-Mets game is terrible, but these also aren’t aces anymore. Right-handed hitters have done damage against Manaea, but good luck finding any Phillies right-handed hitters you’re excited about. Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Edmundo Sosa, JT Realmuto, and Derek Hill are the righties. Of those guys, Sosa and Hill weirdly have the best numbers, followed by Bohm. Turner and Realmuto have been horrendous. I’d still play Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper ahead of them if salary allows.
Nola hasn’t been very splitsy, but LHBs have the best long-term data. Pretty good spot for Juan Soto, Carson Benge, Jared Young, MJ Melendez, and AJ Ewing. As much as I like Nola on this slate, I’m also warming up quite a bit to the Mets. This might be the best slate of all-time for liking both sides of matchups.
Other Stuff I Guess I Like?
- White Sox at Weathers – Various Montgomerys, Miguel Vargas, Randal Grichuk, Chase Meidroth
- Cardinals RHBs at Cameron – Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera, Nelson Velazquez
- Royals RHBs vs. Liberatore – Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Lane Thomas, Salvador Perez
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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