Thursday was a lame one in the baseball streets, but we’re back with a full Friday slate. The Rockies are visiting the A’s in Las Vegas, so we don’t have Coors, but obviously, we have Vegas. The A’s have an implied run total north of 8, which I can’t recall having seen before. I wonder what the total would be if it were actually a good team. 16?
We also have a $12,000 Jacob Misiorowski, which could complicate things. The pitching quality drops off a bit once you get past The Miz, so could be a tricky slate. As always, I recommend checking out our new DFS Builder if you haven’t already. Get yourself a free 7-day trial and start winning.
Let’s rock and/or roll!
Top MLB DFS Pitchers for Friday
- Jacob Misiorowski ($12,000, vs. PHI)
- Joe Ryan ($10,000, vs. STL)
- Spencer Strider ($9,500, at NYM)
- Shane McClanahan ($9,200, at LAA)
- Ryan Weathers ($9,000, at TOR)
- Nolan McLean ($8,700, vs. ATL)
- Landen Roupp ($8,600, vs. CHC)
- Trey Yesavage ($8,500, vs. NYY)
- Roki Sasaki ($8,200, at CHW)
- Shane Baz ($7,800, vs. SD)
- Tanner Bibee ($7,300, vs. DET)
- Nick Lodolo ($6,700, vs. AZ)
Jacob Misiorowski’s numbers are just absurd, and he comes into this start against the Phillies having topped 30 DK points in each of his last 7 starts. He’s been about as automatic as Prime Jacob deGrom, but with even more Ks (38.4%). Misiorowski’s control has also improved considerably this year. Nobody can barrel him up (2.5%), probably because most guys aren’t even making contact at this point. Hitting against him seems like a hopeless endeavor.
The Miz’s Stuff+ numbers and swinging strikes are both through the roof, and it’s hard to punch holes in anything. The question is whether you want to pay $12,000 for him. At that salary you really need him to top 30 FPTs again. The Phillies (23.3%) strike out at a decent clip against RHP, albeit with some decent power (.173 ISO). It’s not a perfect matchup for Misiorowski, but he’s run through better teams than this.
Joe Ryan (27.3% Ks, 5.2% walks, 3.26 SIERA) is good and checks most boxes. Lefty power can give him some trouble, so facing a Cardinals lineup containing 6 left-handed sticks is suboptimal. I think Ryan is good enough to navigate this bunch, but $10,000 is a tall ask for this slate.
Spencer Strider gets a nice draw in Queens against the Mets; I just don’t think Strider’s current 29% K-rate is real or sustainable, while his control (12.8% walks) has been abysmal. The Mets are Certifiably Abysmal themselves, but I don’t see the point in paying $9,500 for this nonsense.
Shane McClanahan has been solid in his return from a 2-year absence (23.9% Ks, 8.5% walks). His stuff is still good, though his swinging strikes are down from where they were pre-injury. He gets a nice draw on the road against an Angels team striking out a ton against lefties (24.1%), though they’re also a righty-heavy lineup with a lot of power (.225 ISO, .362 wOBA). There’s certainly risk here – especially since McClanahan faced them like two weeks ago – and it’s not like he’s cheap, either. There isn’t much differentiating McClanahan from any of these other non-Miz expensive guys.
Same story for Ryan Weathers on the road in Toronto. The 27.7% K-rate is likely to drop a bit given the swinging strikes. I think he’s a fine pitcher overall, but we know the Blue Jays are a pretty high-contact bunch against southpaws. I guess he’s fine, though I think McClanahan is a little more appealing.
Nolan McLean has run into some speedbumps in recent starts. His strikeouts are on the decline (27.4%), the walks are up (9%), and the weak 9.3% swinging strikes make me think the Ks will continue to dip. He’s also facing the Braves, which is a tough spot even with Ronald Acuna Jr. on the shelf. Not exciting!
Landen Roupp returns home to face the Cubs, the same team he faced in his last start last weekend. His 26.3% strikeout rate looks more legit than McLean’s, but Roupp (10.2% walks) also has similar control issues. The Cubs are a neutral matchup in just about every regard. I like the park, but at $8,600, Roupp is Just Kinda There, just like everyone else we’ve talked about.
Trey Yesavage is yet another youngster with a combination of Ks (25.4%) and high walks (11%), but I’m much more bullish on the potential for his strikeouts to improve based on his 13% swinging strike rate. He gets the Yankees without Aaron Judge, which is still a tough matchup, but Yesavage’s prowess against lefties should come in handy. The bottom half of New York’s lineup is also laden with Ks. There’s power risk, but I love the $8,500 price point here. I’m much more interested in Yesavage than anyone else in this tier.
Roki Sasaki seems to be figuring it out. He’s reined in the walks (8.5%), while the strikeouts have improved (24.3%), which is Pretty Much What You Want. I will note his swinging strike rate is the lowest of anyone we’ve talked about so far, but some of that is still leftover from his slow start to the season. The White Sox are a decent offense these days even without Munetaka Murakami, while his absence also lowers their collective strikeout rate. Sasaki is fine, and I think there’s reason to trust his recent form, but I do prefer Yesavage in this range.
Shane Baz is facing the Padres, which is automatically enough to put him on the radar. San Diego’s lineup has a collective .121 ISO and .277 wOBA vs. RHP, which is legitimately horrifying. Baz really hasn’t been very good in his own right – his K-rate is way down – but he’s $7,800 and in a stellar matchup. I will note the Padres have a 4.5 total here, so it seems like oddsmakers are on the SD side of this one.
Tanner Bibee is good, much better than his 19.9% strikeout rate would lead you to believe. He’s due for the good kind of regression in that regard. Detroit’s offense has been pretty poor overall this season, and facing 5 lefties is a good thing considering Bibee is actually striking LHBs out (24.4%). I’m wary of this considering Bibee has Literally Never Worked Out, but he’s $7,300 on a slate where the savings come in handy. I don’t mind it.
I suppose you’re allowed to play a $6,700 Nick Lodolo, but the DBax are a wildly low-K matchup for a lefty (14.3%) and this is one of the best hitter’s parks in the sport.
SP Rankings
- Jacob Misiorowski
- Trey Yesavage
- Tanner Bibee
- Shane McClanahan
- Shane Baz
- Joe Ryan
- Roki Sasaki
- Nolan McLean
- Ryan Weathers
- Nick Lodolo
- Landen Roupp
- Spencer Strider
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Friday
- A’s (vs. Sean Sullivan)
- Rockies (at Gage Jump)
- Royals (vs. Tatsuya Imai)
- Blue Jays (vs. Ryan Weathers)
- Padres (at Shane Baz)
- Reds (vs. Eduardo Rodriguez)
- DBax (at Nick Lodolo)
- Cardinals (vs. Joe Ryan)
- Rays (at Sam Aldegheri)
It’s a huge slate with a lot to like, but we have to start in the home-run haven in Las Vegas where the A’s will take on the Rockies. A couple of rookie lefties are on the mound. This will be the MLB debut for Colorado’s Sean Sullivan, while Gage Jump takes another turn for the home team.
Sullivan is one of the Rockies’ better prospects, but it’s the Rockies. The A’s RHBs will probably be the slate’s chalkiest bats, but with good reason. Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers, Henry Bolte, and Zack Gelof have the best data among the A’s RHBs, but Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, and Carlos Cortes have all fared well lefty-lefty. The A’s aren’t a great offense, but they’re very clearly the best bet on the board tonight.
I think Jump is probably pretty good, while the Rockies have been an absolute horror show against lefties. Still, given the ballpark, we can take some shots here, especially if the field is gunshy on them. Hunter Goodman will be fairly popular, but less so than Langeliers, so at least there’s that. Cole Carrigg would be my next stop, followed by Willi Castro, Kyle Karros, and Ezequiel Tovar. I hate it all, but I’ll play it.
Ownership should be pretty spread out otherwise. Tatsuya Imai still hasn’t been great for Houston, so the Royals again look like a strong source of value. Bobby Witt Jr. is expensive, but everyone else – Vinnie Pasquantino, Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone, Kameron Misner – is not.
Both sides of AZ/CIN look interesting. Lodolo has really given up a ton of power to righties, so Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, Ryan Waldschmidt, and Nolan Arenado grade out well, while Corbin Carroll (.282 ISO, .480 wOBA) has absolutely killed his fellow lefties. We generally like RHBs against E-Rod (Sal Stewart, Eugenio Suarez, Spencer Steer, Dane Myers), but JJ Bleday is another lefty faring well vs. same-handed pitching.
- I like the Jays’ RHBs against Weathers – Springer, Vlad Jr., McAdoo, Okamoto.
- Cardinals lefties against Ryan – Wetherholt, Burleson, Nootbaar, Gorman, Crooks
- Padres vs. Baz – Tatis, Machado, Merrill, Sheets
- TB’s big RHBs vs. Aldegheri – Diaz, Caminero, Vilade
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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