Hello! I hope you’re having yourself a dandy Monday. The MLB DFS main slate is an early one today starting at 6:35 PM ET.
Coors Field will return tomorrow, but we’ve got another potentially hitter-friendly environment entering the chat for the first time. The A’s will spend the next week playing games in their alleged future home of Las Vegas in the Aviators’ outdoor stadium in Summerlin. It’s hotter than hell in Las Vegas, even at night, and Vegas is also at elevation, even if it’s not quite as high as Denver or Mexico City. That all adds up to what should be quite the electric atmosphere for offense, even though the slappy Brewers are the visitors.
As always, I’ll remind you to check out our MLB DFS sims if you haven’t already. You can try ’em out for free on a 7-day trial, if you’re so inclined.
On to the writing.
Best MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (June 8)
- Cristopher Sanchez ($11,500, at TOR)
- Kyle Harrison ($10,500, at ATH)
- Spencer Arrighetti ($9,500, at LAA)
- Will Warren ($8,900, at CLE)
- Gavin Williams ($8,700, vs. NYY)
- Connelly Early ($8,500, at TB)
- Emerson Hancock ($8,300, at BAL)
- Logan Webb ($8,000, vs. WSH)
- Andrew Abbott ($6,800, at SD)
- Chris Bassitt ($5,300, vs. SEA)
Cristopher Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season, which isn’t a huge surprise considering he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, too. He just had a long scoreless innings streak snapped last week, and he’ll try to start a new one tonight in Toronto. Sanchez’s 1.46 ERA is predictably well south of his SIERA (2.55), but a 2.55 SIERA is Cy Young stuff. Sanchez has always been a groundballer (58.6% this year), while he’s ramped up the Ks (29.5%) over the past couple of seasons. He’s been essentially unhittable against lefties, while RHBs (9.6% barrels) occasionally make decent contact against him. Sanchez has one of the game’s best change-ups, which helps him to limit and generate swings-and-misses vs. righties, though.
Toronto isn’t a matchup to be hunting ceiling, however. The Jays (17.7%) are one of the league’s lowest-strikeout groups against lefties, and they’re not particularly groundball-prone, either. I do think Sanchez is fairly insulated from meltdowns because of his style, though, and it’s not like this version of the Jays is all that potent (.168 ISO). Sanchez is totally fine, though $11,500 is the highest salary I can remember seeing for a pitcher all season.
Kyle Harrison ($10,500) is also awfully expensive as he prepares to face the A’s in Vegas. Harrison has been a revelation for Milwaukee (31.9% Ks, 2.88 SIERA), and the A’s have been an extremely strikeout-prone offense against southpaws (28%). They do have quite a bit of power, though, and the conditions here favor the bats. There’s more risk in Harrison’s matchup than there is in Sanchez’s, though I’d also argue there’s a higher ceiling with Harrison’s. I don’t see any other red flags here, so it’s just a matter of whether you’re comfortable with paying up for Harrison in this environment. I think he’s a good play, and he should be lower-owned than Sanchez.
Spencer Arrighetti has been very lucky all season, and that luck started to run out in his most recent outing against the Pirates. He does get an easier draw tonight in Anaheim against the K-happy Angels (24.3% vs. RHP), though Arrighetti’s own K numbers have dwindled (21.2%) from where they were even a couple of years ago (27.1%). He’s also still walking far too many (12.4%), and his SIERA makes him look painfully average compared to his fake 1.94 ERA. As much as I’d like to play against the Angels, I just can’t really justify the $9,500 tag here.
Will Warren (25.8% Ks, 3.51 SIERA) is a better pitcher than Arrighetti, but he’s in a worse spot on the road in Cleveland against the Guardians’ Sea of Lefties. Cleveland is back to being a low-K lot (18.8%) against righties. It’s not a thunderous group (.142 ISO, .304 wOBA), but they’re pesky. I’d rather play Warren at $8,900 than Arrighetti at $9,500, but I’m most likely to ignore them both, for the most part.
Here we go again with Gavin Williams, who will face the Yankees again after beating them last week in the Bronx. I Don’t Love That For Him, but at least he won’t have to deal with Aaron Judge. Williams is also excellent, with a 29% K-rate next to a much-improved 7.7% walk rate. Williams’ numbers against lefties (.203 ISO, 14.5% barrels) make him scary against a powerful, lefty-heavy lineup, but, as was the case last week, Williams is underpriced for his skills at $8,700. The 2nd-straight-start-against-the-same-team thing may come into play in a way that projections can’t account for, but I’m a believer in the talent, and the bottom part of New York’s lineup is littered with high-strikeout hitters. I’m in on him again.
Connelly Early – who reminds me of Knicks legend Cleanthony Early every time I see “C. Early” – gets the Rays at the Trop. Early has been pretty average this year (4.02 SIERA, 22.7% Ks, 8.3% walks), but the Rays are one of the weakest lineups in the league against LHP (.108 ISO, .312 wOBA). Tampa Bay annoyingly won’t do much striking out (17.4%). I suppose Early is a fine option, but not one I’m excited about.
Emerson Hancock (25.8% Ks, 3.33 SIERA) just keeps chugging along and putting up good starts. He is one of baseball’s most-improved pitchers this season, and I don’t see much of a reason to doubt him anymore. This is a tricky spot, as the Orioles have some power (.181 ISO, .331 wOBA) along with some Ks (23.6%) against righties. Hancock has also allowed a barrel rate north of 12% to lefties, and he’ll see 6 of those here. Hancock is about on par with Early for me on this slate. Meh!
Logan Webb twirled a gem in his last start against the Brewers, and tonight he’ll face the Nationals in his pitcher-friendly home digs. I thought Washington would be trash this season, but they are Definitely Not Trash. They’ve been downright potent offensively (.194 ISO, .331 wOBA, 19.3% Ks vs. RHP). Webb is still a good pitcher, though he’s more of a groundballer (57.7%) than a guy likely to break the slate with strikeouts (20.3%). One plus here is that the Nats have quite a few hitters hitting it on the ground. His splits are also pretty neutral, so I don’t think he’ll be bothered by all of these LHBs. The selling points are the ballpark and the $8,000 salary. Those savings come in handy on a slate with some extremely expensive pitching and some bats worth paying for, and it doesn’t look like Webb will be all that popular, either.
Andrew Abbott will go into Petco Park to face the Padres, which is a sizable park upgrade for him. Abbott isn’t particularly good (15.8% Ks, 10.4% walks, 5.14 SIERA), but San Diego is among the worst lineups in baseball this season against lefties (.150 ISO, 24.8% Ks, .306 wOBA). Abbott’s flyball style is less likely to hurt him in this park, and he’s only $6,800. I don’t love it, but I also don’t hate it.
The last name worth a shout is Chris Bassitt, solely because he’s just $5,300 at home against Seattle. Bassitt’s strikeouts (14.1%) barely register anymore, and he’s been tattooed by lefties despite some much better numbers against RHBs. The Mariners have 5 lefties in the projected order, and Camden Yards is a much better park for lefty power, in the first place. The M’s are one of my favorite stacks on the slate, but I do think you can make a case to play Bassitt in larger-field stuff if you need the cheap salary.
SP Rankings
- Harrison
- Williams
- Sanchez
- Webb
- Abbott
- Bassitt
- Warren
- Early
- Arrighetti
- Hancock
Top MLB DFS Stacks for Monday
- Brewers (at Jeffrey Springs)
- Astros (at Grayson Rodriguez)
- Red Sox (at Ian Seymour/Mason Englert)
- Phillies (at Patrick Corbin)
- A’s (vs. Kyle Harrison)
- Mariners (at Chris Bassitt)
- Giants (vs. Miles Mikolas)
- Orioles (vs. Emerson Hancock)
The Brewers put at least 7 runs on the board in each of their 3 games in Denver over the weekend, and tonight they’ll take on Jeffrey Springs in Vegas. Springs has allowed a .223 ISO and a .328 WOBA overall this season with barrel rates north of 9% against hitters from both sides. His flyball style doesn’t suit him well in Sacramento, and it could be even worse for him here.
I suppose Milwaukee doesn’t look quite as imposing against lefties, but Andrew Vaughn, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Christian Yelich all have strong numbers vs. LHP on the season. Everyone else has kinda sucked, though you can save some salary with guys like Joey Ortiz and Luis Rengifo in stacks. Because Springs has struggled to contain lefties, you can make the case for Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell in stacks, as well. I assume Milwaukee will be chalk, but they’re expensive, so people will have to get creative if they also want to pay up for guys like Sanchez or Harrison.
While I’m not thrilled to play against Harrison, it’s hard to overlook that the A’s also have a 5.1 implied run total in this game. Not only are the A’s expected to have some success here, but Harrison will also probably semi-chalk against them. It’s not a high-percentage stack, but you can talk me into Henry Bolte, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, and Colby Thomas, while a low-owned Nick Kurtz is always appealing. This is a tricky situation.
The Astros have a solid 4.7 total as they head to the OC to face Grayson Rodriguez, a former top prospect who’s really struggling this year post-injury. Lefties have cooked him in a small sample (11.1% barrels, .356 ISO), so Yordan Alvarez is just as good as anyone in the MIL-ATH game. Christian Walker and Cam Smith are the only other Astros with double-digit barrels vs. RHP on the year, while LaMonte Wade Jr. is also on this team now, apparently. Jeremy Pena, Jose Altuve, and Isaac Paredes are fine in stacks, obviously.
The Phillies get Patrick Corbin, a familiar foe who spent years with the Nationals in the same division. Corbin has pitched like an ace against lefties – which makes Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper tougher to trust – but RHBs (9.4% barrels, .184 ISO) are still hitting him hard and in the air. The Phillies’ RHBs kinda suck, though Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, JT Realmuto, Adolis Garcia, and Edmundo Sosa will hit from the preferred side. I still like tossing Schwarber and/or Harper into stacks, with Schwarber looking particularly appealing given his god-level numbers vs. LHP on the year (.318 ISO, .413 wOBA).
I mentioned Chris Bassitt’s struggles with LHBs and that the Mariners have quite a few of them to toss his way. Luke Raley and Dom Canzone are the only ones hitting for much power this year, but I’m good with Colt Emerson, Cole Young, and Josh Naylor, of course. The 5-man stack kinda builds itself. I’d still like to find a way to get Julio Rodriguez in there.
Baltimore’s lefties against Hancock are also viable, especially since I doubt anyone will play them – Gunnar Henderson, Samuel Basallo, Adley Rutschman, and Colton Coswer are the easiest sells.
The Red Sox will face Ian Seymour before Mason Englert is expected to take over in bulk duty. Seymour is a lefty, Englert is a righty. Boston kinda sucks, so it’s almost entirely Jarren Duran, Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddane Rafaela. Can’t say I love it, because I do not.
Another interesting situation is the Giants – who suck – against Miles Mikolas – who sucks. I suppose San Francisco’s 4.33 total is high by their standards, but this is also the worst hitting park on the slate. I’m probably going to let the field chase it with the Giants, but if you do want to play them, I’d prioritize Rafael Devers, Casey Schmitt, and Willy Adames.
Other Things That Look Decent
- Padres RHBs vs. Abbott – Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts
- Sal Stewart vs. Walker Buehler
- James Wood/CJ Abrams vs. Logan Webb
- A Dusting Of Angels – Zach Neto, Jo Adell, Mike Trout
- Guardians LHBs vs. Warren – Jose Ramirez, Travis Bazzana, Chase DeLauter, Kyle Manzardo
- Yankees LHBs vs. Williams – Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm, Cody Bellinger, Spencer Jones
- Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz vs. Early
Stack Confidence-o-Meter
- Brewers
- Mariners
- Phillies
- Astros
- A’s
- Orioles
- Giants
- Yankees
- Guardians
- Red Sox
- Padres
- Rays RHBs
- Angels
- Nats LHBs
New to daily fantasy baseball? Start from scratch with our MLB DFS guide.
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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