Happy Friday! I’m a bit jammed for time today because I’m driving to Nevada. Just about everything is legal in Nevada except for DFS, which is some ass-backwards shit, if you ask me. Heaven forbid a guy just wants to watch in horror as another ace melts down and ruins his entire weekend. “But the casinos!” Fuck off.
Anyway, it’s Friday, so we’re looking at a full slate, headlined by the Brewers making their annual pilgrimage to Colorado. This is the kind of team that should use the elements to their advantage, so let’s see how things shake out. If you’re still holding out for no reason and looking for an edge in your MLB GPP process, be sure to sign up for a free trial of our sparkling new DFS Builder/optimizer/simulator. You’ll be glad you did.
Anyway, let’s talk about the stuff!
Top MLB DFS Pitcher Picks (June 5)
- Parker Messick ($9,600, at TEX)
- Ryan Weathers ($9,300, vs. BOS)
- Trey Yesavage ($9,000, vs. BAL)
- Michael King ($8,600, vs. NYM)
- Drew Rasmussen ($8,500, at MIA)
- Sonny Gray ($8,300, at NYY)
- Peter Lambert ($8,000, vs. ATH)
- Roki Sasaki ($7,700, vs. LAA)
- Christian Scott ($7,600, at SD)
- Martin Perez ($6,800, vs. PIT)
- Kyle Leahy ($6,600, vs. CIN)
We don’t have any big-name aces on this slate, but we do have a crop of interesting options. It’s weird to see Parker Messick as the most expensive arm on the board, but he’s earned it. Messick’s 3.39 SIERA says his 2.21 ERA is on the fraudulent side, but a 3.39 SIERA is still well above average. His 27.2% K-rate looks solid next to his 7.7% walk rate, and the swinging strike rate is about what it should be for a 27% K-rate. I don’t think he’s great, but he is very good.
The Rangers? Not very good. They’re striking out a shit ton against lefties (26.1%). The returns of Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager may boost the power here, but it won’t help to cut down on the Ks. Overall, Texas has hit for almost no power (.149 ISO) against LHP. I’m not geeked about the $9,600 salary, but it is a pretty awesome spot for Messick, especially factoring in the pitcher-friendly ballpark.
Ryan Weathers (29% Ks, 3.18 SIERA is having a breakout season in pinstripes, and there’s nothing about the underlying data to suggest he’s a fluke. The lefty will allow some right-handed power, but the Red Sox sure don’t have much of that. Ceddane Rafaela, Willson Contreras, and Andruw Monasterio (???) have some good numbers vs. LHP on the year, but that’s about it for Boston. They’re not striking out as heavily against lefties (20.1%) as the Rangers are, but there also isn’t much to worry about in this matchup. He and Messick are very similar plays, though Messick may have a bit more upside against the Rangers.
The Blue Jays and Orioles are playing Game 25 of an ongoing series, or so it seems. Trey Yesavage (26.2%) is showing about as much strikeout stuff as he did in a limited tour of duty in the majors last year, though he does have a career 11.4% walk rate at the top level. I do think Yesavage is the most talented pitcher on this slate, and I think 26.2% is on the low side of where his K-rate may end up. Baltimore is an interesting mix of Ks (23.5%) and walks (11.4%) against RHP, so there are some potential hurdles for Yesavage here. The O’s have a lot of lefties with power, but Yesavage’s splitter is possibly the most plus pitch in the entire league, and it helps to keep LHBs in check. Messick and Weathers will probably pull more ownership, but Yesavage has the highest ceiling of the bunch if he can avoid a bunch of walks. It’s also worth noting it’s his second straight outing against Baltimore, which isn’t necessarily ideal, but that won’t get me off of him, either.
Michael King and Christian Scott will square off in San Diego. Both pitchers have above-average strikeout rates and double-digit walk rates this season. Both are also facing lineups that aren’t hitting for much power, while the Mets have been particularly impotent offensively (.130 ISO, .291 wOBA). Both pitchers also have full leashes, so that’s cool. I think King is a fine enough play at $8,600, though, dollar-for-dollar, I think I’d rather get to Scott for $1,000 less.
Drew Rasmussen randomly got rekt by the Angels in his last game, and tonight he’ll take on the Marlins in Miami in front of tens of people. Rasmussen is solid in just about every regard, while Miami isn’t hitting for much power against RHP (.144 ISO). Not a great matchup for Ks (20%), but the Marlins also have a 3.7 implied run total, and Ras is reasonable at $8,500. Good play, and I slightly prefer him to King. I’d also rank him behind Scott.
Sonny Gray against the Yankees? The Yankees without Aaron Judge aren’t really The Yankees, to be fair. Gray’s SIERA is still a little south of 4.00, though the strikeouts are down to 19.9%. He’s more of a groundball guy than a strikeouts guy this season. I don’t doubt he can put up a decent start, though I’m not sure we need him on this slate, either.
I suppose Peter Lambert’s 22.6% strikeout rate has room for growth, but the 11.1% walks are alarming, and the A’s are a much better contact lineup (19.1% Ks) against RHP. Again, I’d rather find the extra salary for King or Rasmussen or just dip down to Scott or Roki Sasaki.
Speaking of Roki, he’ll face those high-strikeout Angels at home. He has looked better after a shaky start to the season, and his 22.5% strikeout rate is due to improve. He’s already shown better control (8.6% walks), it’s just a matter of harnessing his plus stuff. We like picking on the Angels and all of their Ks (25.4%), though, obviously, the top half of the lineup has a lot of power. There’s obvious volatility, especially given Sasaki’s reverse spilt, but I think he’s worth a roll of the dice in GPPs.
Martin Perez is cheap and left-handed, and most of the Pirates’ best bats are left-handed. You can sprinkle him in. Cheap pitching comes in handy on this slate. Kyle Leahy is in the same boat, I guess, but I prefer Perez.
SP Rankings
- Yesavage
- Messick
- Weathers
- Scott
- Rasmussen
- King
- Sasaki
- Perez
- Leahy
- Gray
- Lambert
Top MLB DFS Stacks for June 5
- Brewers (at Ryan Feltner)
- Cardinals (vs. Brady Singer)
- Rockies (vs. Brandon Sproat)
- Royals (at Zebby)
- Guardians (at Kumar Rocker)
- Rays (at Ryan Gusto)
- Nationals (at Merrill Kelly)
- DBax (vs. Foster Griffin)
There isn’t a lot of standout pitching on this MLB DFS slate, and, weirdly, not really a ton of standout offense, either. That just makes the Brewers stand out even more, as they’re headed to Denver to face Ryan Feltner. Feltner is an okay pitcher – especially by Rockies standards – but much of the allure of Coors Field is the huge outfield, which really boosts doubles and triples more than home runs. The Brewers aren’t really Big On Dongs, but they’re probably the fastest team in the league overall, so the park suits them extremely well.
Feltner projects for an average split from the right side, so the LHBs are the standouts – Brice Turang, Christian Yelich, Jake Bauers, Garrett Mitchell, David Hamilton, and Sal Frelick. Turang and Yelich are the major priorities among that lot, though Bauers has useful multi-positional eligibility. I’m also making a priority of Jackson Chourio from the right side. It’s worth noting this team is wildly expensive, so they’re not exactly easy to stack. If you do something like pairing Scott with Sasaki, Perez, or Leahy, it’s more doable.
The Rockies have a 5.4 total of their own as they prepare to face Brandon Sproat. The strikeouts haven’t really been there for Sproat, but I also think he’s had quite a run of bad luck overall, and that he’ll be a good pitcher before too long, if he isn’t already. It’s the Rockies, so there’s a very low floor, of course, but the LHBs (McCarthy, Rumfield, Castro, Johnston) are the standouts while Hunter Goodman is always the top priority.
I don’t know what happened to Formerly Respectable Pitcher Brady Singer, but his vocal cords seem to have fallen out. He has never been great, but he’s been especially awful this season. Hitters from both sides are toasting him, while his strikeout rate is particularly pathetic (8.9%?) against RHBs. Even in a more pitcher-friendly yard, I’m quite interested in JJ Wetherhold, Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, Nolan Gorman, and the newly-activated Lars Nootbaar. Jimmy Crooks is also just $2,200.
Things kinda fall off from there. Merrill Kelly seems a little better after a horrendous start to the year, but the Nats have been one of the best offenses in the league, especially vs. RHP. James Wood and CJ Abrams are the ones you want the most, though Luis Garcia, Daylen Lile, Keibert Ruiz, and Curtis Mead have all hit RHP well. Foster Griffin has allowed some righty power on the other side, so I like a Marte/Moreno/Arenado mini. Corbin Carroll, always good.
Other Stuff
- Kansas City’s lefties + Witt look good against Zebediah Matthews
- Twins RHBs – basically just Buxton! – vs. Wacha
- I always feel kinda drawn to Cleveland’s Huge Pile Of Lefties when they face a mediocre RHP, which is the case tonight against Rocker – Ramirez, DeLauter, Manzardo, Bazzana, Martinez
- TB LHBs vs. Gusto – Aranda…welp that’s all of ’em I guess
Noah Simpson is a New England-based DFS writer who has spent the better part of a decade obsessing over MLB DFS. He got his start playing DFS recreationally before realizing he was spending more time building spreadsheets than actually watching games, and decided to make it official. At DFSBuild, Noah covers MLB DFS strategy with a focus on finding edges that casual players overlook. When he’s not staring at Statcast data, he’s somewhere on a hiking trail in Maine with his two dogs, Sandboy and Johnner, who are undefeated at ignoring his lineup advice, because they are dogs. They don’t have the cognitive or motor skills required to operate a computer, let alone process complex theories and information.
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