We’re back! The Opening Day slate was hit or miss. We saw plenty of outstanding pitching performances, Paul Skenes doo-dooed the bed, and several of the better-projecting offenses came up short. The Brewers also scored about one million runs as chalk. So it goes!
Tonight, we’re lookin’ at a 7-game main slate on DraftKings kicking off with the Torontoian 7:07 PM ET start time. Off we go.
SP1
- Chris Sale ($9,700, vs. KC)
- Cole Ragans ($9,000, at ATL)
- George Kirby ($8,500, vs. CLE)
- Kevin Gausman ($8,300. vs ATH)
Pitching isn’t as deep as it was yesterday, but it’s also a slightly smaller slate. Nobody is over $10,000. The closest is Chris Sale, checking in at $300 south of the threshold for a home date with the Royals.
Sale was back to his old elite self last season with a K-rate north of 32% along with limited walks and excellent power prevention. There weren’t many weaknesses in his game. The matchup tonight is fine. Atlanta has the warmest temps on the slate, but it’s still not exactly hot. Kansas City’s projected lineup struck out around 20% of the time against lefties a season ago with middling power (.149 ISO, 7.8% barrels). Ownership looks pretty flat among the slate’s top options, so perhaps Sale won’t be heavy chalk. I’ll have plenty of him.
Cole Ragans is the only other pitcher cracking $9,000 on the other side of Sale’s matchup. Ragans only pitched in 13 games last year, but he was pretty awesome (38.1% Ks). That includes a strikeout rate pushing 42% against righties, which is no small feat for a lefty. His groundball and barrel rates were much better against his fellow lefties, though he has a slight reverse platoon split overall.
That reverse split should come in handy against a Braves lineup featuring just 2 left-handed bats – Matt Olson and Michael Harris. We’re used to fearing this lineup, but it really isn’t imposing once you get past the first 3 or 4 hitters. Look who’s projected to hit 5th-through-9th:
Not imposing! As a whole, this Atlanta lineup posted a weak .150 ISO and .311 wOBA against southpaws in 2025. I think Ragans is a terrific play.
George Kirby ($8,500) and Kevin Gausman ($8,300) would ordinarily be SP2s at these salaries, but they’re SP1s tonight with the way the pricing works out. The Guardians did some damage against Logan Gilbert last night, but I don’t care about that, and you shouldn’t, either. It feels like Kirby struggled mightily in favorable spots last season, but his overall numbers were solid (26.1% Ks, 3.39 SIERA). Seattle is the best pitcher’s park on the slate with the best pitching weather, and Cleveland has some Ks in the lineup. The lineup’s overall strikeout rate against righties looks low (21%) because of Steven Kwan (8.5%) and Jose Ramirez (12.2%), but 5 hitters in this projected order whiffed more than 25% of the time vs. RHP last season.
I like the spot and salary enough to call Kirby my 2nd-favorite pitching option on the board behind Sale.
Gausman gets more of a boom/bust draw at home against the A’s. The Athletics bring the boom (.212 ISO, 10.7% barrels, .354 wOBA vs. RHP), and the lineup is a mix of high-K bats (Denzel Clarke, Nick Kurtz) and pesky, high-contact types (Jacob Wilson, Jeff McNeil). Gausman is the lowest-strikeout pitcher of the top tier (24.2% last season), but he will occasionally spike a big game. Gausman is also a fly-ball pitcher, which creates some home-run risk against a powerful offense.
If Gausman were $9,500 I’d have minimal interest, but $8,300 is hard to overlook. I don’t really want to take a big stance here. I’ll probably come in around the field on Gausman’s projected ownership, which is between 20% and 25%.
SP1 rankings:
- Sale
- Kirby
- Ragans
- Gausman (distant 4th)
SP2
- Framber Valdez ($8,800, at SD)
- Sandy Alcantara ($7,500, vs. COL)
- Michael King ($7,700, vs. DET)
- Mike Burrows ($6,500, vs. LAA)
- Gavin Williams ($8,000, at SEA)
- Emmet Sheehan ($7,800, vs. AZ)
If there’s any extreme chalk on this slate, it’s pretty easy to identify. That would be none other than Sandy Alcantara, who comes in at a wee $7,500 at home against Colorado. If there’s one thing we know, it’s that the field loves to pick on the Rockies, especially when they’re away from the thin-air confines of Coors Field.
Alcantara won a Cy Young a couple of years ago, but he largely sucked last season post-TJ. The groundball stuff was still okay (46.6%), but the strikeouts (19.1%) evaporated, not that he was a huge-K guy before the injury. Of course, the matchup with the Rockies can be the Great Equalizer. Colorado’s lineup struck out nearly 26% of the time vs. RHP last year, and Marlins Park is a much worse hitting environment than Coors. Maybe Alcantara will bounce back now that he’s over a year removed from surgery. Maybe he won’t.
I get it. I’m going to play some Alcantara, but I’ll likely be underweight on what could be sky-high ownership. I’ll strongly consider fading him in single-entry.
Another reason Alcantara isn’t really necessary is that we have a wealth of alternatives. Michael King pitched only 5 times last year due to injury, but he posted strikeout rates of around 30% in previous seasons. The Tigers are a pesky offense with some thunder (.183 ISO), but they’ll also strike out (24.4%). There’s some risk here, but if he’s lower-owned than Alcantara – which he will be – I think he’s an acceptable pivot.
Ditto for Emmet Sheehan, a trendy breakout pick ahead of his season debut against the DBax. Sheehan was quietly stellar last season (28.4% Ks), and his profile is similar to Gausman’s. He’ll give up plenty of flyballs – many of which may be barreled (10.1% last season), but he’s probably underpriced for his skills. Arizona is a solid offense that really thins out once you get to the bottom of the order. The Dodgers took it easy on Sheehan’s workload post-injury last year, but I don’t really expect that to be the case this season. I trust Sheehan a bit more than King.
Gavin Williams is sitting at $8,000 ahead of a matchup at Seattle. Williams has decent strikeout ability (24.9%), but walks (11.5%) are a major concern. The Mariners’ lineup is terrific, and, importantly, quite patient (9.2% walks). Great pitching environment, but I’d rather just play Kirby/Gausman if I’m forking over $8,000. Or, take the slight savings with King, Alcantara, or Sheehan. Williams is a large-field leftover.
The next name I’ll mention is Mike Burrows, who’ll make his Astros debut at home against the Angels. He pitched to a K-rate of around 24% with a sub-4 SIERA last season in Pittsburgh. Burrows has a reverse split from the right side, which isn’t ideal for a matchup against the righty-heavy Halos. The Angels have plenty of Ks in that lineup (26.1%), and Burrows is one of the slate’s cheapest pitchers at just $6,500. I think he’s a solid punt if you need some extra salary for bats, but I wouldn’t go too crazy with exposure.
Framber Valdez is priced more like an SP1 at $8,800. I just have minimal interest. I think he’s excellent, but the Padres were one of the lowest-strikeout offenses in the league last season. I don’t see much need to spend the salary here when Ragans looks far better for an extra $200.
SP2 Rankings:
- Alcantara (I guess)
- Sheehan
- King
- Burrows
- Williams
- Valdez
Top Stacks
- Dodgers (vs. Ryne Nelson)
- Blue Jays (vs. Luis Severino)
- Angels (at Mike Burrows)
- Astros (vs. Yusei Kikuchi)
Lots of good pitchers mean most offenses don’t look great, but we do still have a few standouts. In earth-shattering news, the Dodgers look like a pretty good stack. Ryne Nelson is more average than bad, but he’s also more average than good. Sounds like he’s average! Strikeout stuff is average, control is pretty good, doesn’t really keep the ball on the ground, and the splits are neutral.
It’s mainly that the Dodgers are the Dodgers, and the DBax also have one of baseball’s crappiest bullpens backing Nelson up. RHBs had more success against Nelson last year (.203 ISO, 9% barrels). Good news for Will Smith, Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez, and Andy Pages, but I’m obviously not shying away from Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Tucker, or Max Muncy. Just an embarrassment of good stuff here.
Salaries make it difficult to comfortably stack The Big Boys, but that’s where the $6,500 Mike Burrows comes in handy. You can also play a couple of pitchers in the $7,500-$8,000 range instead of paying up for Sale, though it’s easier to get to Sale if you stick the $2,500 Miguel Rojas into your LA stack.
The other World Series participants also look pretty good, as they’ll open ’26 at home against Luis Severino. Severino was a lot better on the road last season – predictably – and LHBs have historically given him more trouble. Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger, and Jesus Sanchez all had double-digit barrel rates from the left side vs. RHP last season. Varsho, Alejandro Kirk, and Ernie Clement are all pretty cheap, but you better believe I’m still paying up for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer from the right side in full stacks. Kazuma Okamoto looks like another power righty to add to the pile. This lineup rocks.
Both sides of the LAA-HOU game are on my list, for better or worse. The Astros were shut down yesterday by Jose Soriano, but they line up much more favorably tonight against old friend Yusei Kikuchi. Kikuchi is solid, but the strikeout stuff lags against righties, and Houston is almost nothing but RHBs. He also allowed a barrel rate of over 10% vs. RHBs last year. It’s still not the most potent lineup, but I’m pretty comfortable with full Houston stacks. Jose Altuve, Cam Smith, Christian Walker, and Carlos Correa had the best contact data among the ‘Stros’ righties last season, while Yordan Alvarez absolutely rakes his fellow lefties. I say this all the time, but the field is afraid of playing lefties against LHPs. Use that to your advantage.
I suspect Burrows will attract some attention, partially because playing him helps you to afford the Dodgers. So, stacking the Angels against him for leverage is logical. As always, it’s the righty power – Mike Trout, Zach Neto, Jorge Soler, Jo Adell, and Logan O’Hoppe.
Secondary Stacks
- DBax (at Emmet Sheehan)
- Royals (at Chris Sale)
- Rockies (at Sandy Alcantara)
- Marlins (vs. Kyle Freeland)
- A’s (at Kevin Gausman)
I like Sheehan, but he’s had high walk and barrel rates against left-handed hitters last season. You don’t win GPPs with walks, but homers will get you where you want to go. Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo look like a very good 3-man mini-stack atop the Arizona order if you’re fading Sheehan. I’ll add Pavin Smith to the list if he cracks the lineup after his late scratch yesterday.
Otherwise, you can always seek leverage with your secondary stack, which is where teams like the Rockies, Royals, and A’s come in. All 3 are facing pitchers likely to garner some ownership. Sale + Alcantara will be the popular build on DraftKings.
I suppose I’d put the A’s atop my wishlist as the most talented offense in this tier. All of Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, and Tyler Soderstrom posted ISOs north of .200 vs. RHP a season ago. Max Muncy and Lawrence Butler had barrel rates of around 10%. If you want to play Kurtz as a one-off, I’m with ya. Langeliers and Rooker would be next in a mini-stack, while I don’t mind squirrel-faced Jeff McNeil for savings.
Kansas City is next despite the matchup against the slate’s most talented pitcher. Even Sale will step on rakes from time to time, and the way to get to him is via right-handed power. Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, and Salvador Perez is the preferred 3-man, but I’m fine including the $3,000 Lane Thomas hitting out of the 3-hole.
If you’d rather target Alcantara than Sale, I won’t blame you. Stacking the Rockies on the road generally feels terrible, but Sandy is pretty flimsy chalk! Plus, the Rockies are wildly cheap across the board. Jake McCarthy, Willi Castro, Ezequiel Tovar, Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, Mickey Moniak, and Brenton Doyle are all capable hitters. I will not pretend to know who the fuck “TJ Rumfield” is. McCarthy-Castro-Goodman is a stellar 3-man stack.
I guess you can play some Marlins on the other side of this matchup. They’re facing Kyle Freeland, after all. The problem? This offense is dung. Otto Lopez, Agustin Ramirez, and Xavier Edwards are okay, I’m just not into this.
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