Hello! Today is the first day of baseball. Yesterday was truly the first day of baseball, but there’s more baseball today, so today wins on aggregate. If only there were a name for the first day of baseball season. First Ball Day, maybe.
9 games on the board for today. The RG weather guy landed on his feet elsewhere, so we still have viable weather data, thankfully. It’s hot in some spots, it’s cold in others, and it’s windy in Chicago. Surprise!
Let’s break it down and win some money, shall we?
Top SP1s for 3/26
- Tarik Skubal ($10,500, at SD)
- Garrett Crochet ($9,700, at CIN)
- Hunter Brown ($9,500, vs. LAA)
- Cristopher Sanchez ($9,000, vs. TEX)
- Paul Skenes ($10,000, at NYM)
- Freddy Peralta ($9,200, vs. PIT)
On the expensive side, these lads are my primary targets. We have to start, as always, with Tarik Skubal, who’s on the road this afternoon in San Diego. Skubal is very clearly baseball’s best starting pitcher (33.6% Ks, 4.5% walks in 2025), and he’ll face a Padres lineup sorely lacking in the power department against left-handed pitching (.154 ISO). The Pads are a lower-strikeout bunch (19.8%), but do we really care? Skubal is as matchup-proof as they come, and Petco is a pitcher-friendly park. It’ll be around 70 degrees there today, so not warm enough to scare me away from the Tigers’ ace.
Paul Skenes ($10,000) is next up in terms of salary in the day’s first game at 1:15 ET. While he’s also in a pitcher-friendly park, Skenes’ strikeout stuff over the past few years (29.5% last season) isn’t quite as awesome as Skubal’s. He still doesn’t have any weaknesses in his game, but I’d rather pick on the Padres than the Mets. New York’s projected lineup packs a little more punch (.197 ISO, .348 wOBA vs. RHP) with an identical 19.8% strikeout rate from a season ago. I’m likely to be pretty underweight here with other pitchers simply in better matchups.
Hunter Brown ($9,500) certainly qualifies, as he’ll face the Angels at home. Brown’s numbers across the board last season were similar to Skenes’, and the Angels, as we know, are pathetic. This group punched out nearly 25% of the time against righties, though they did also hit for some power (.181 ISO). The Halos aren’t a particularly high-groundball lineup, either, which is one of Brown’s strengths. I suspect he’ll be pretty chalky here thanks to the discounts we’re getting compared to the Skubal/Skenes tier. No real issue with it.
Garrett Crochet ($9,700) gets the Reds on the road. It may not be a huge park downgrade for Crochet, but Great American is still one of the most homer-friendly parks on the slate. On the bright side, the matchup is otherwise excellent for a guy who posted a 31.5% strikeout rate, 5.5% walk rate, and 49.4% groundball rate a season ago. Cincinnati does have some potent right-handed hitters in the heart of the order, but overall, they struggled against southpaws (.141 ISO, .294 wOBA, 25.2% Ks). As of this writing, I’d expect Crochet to be my second-highest-exposed pitcher, behind only Skubal.
Cristopher Sanchez is the cheapest of the SP1 tier at $9,000 for a home date with the Rangers. He’s also the worst strikeout pitcher of the lot (26.2%), but he won’t beat himself with walks, and he’s the highest groundball arm of the group (58.8%). Sanchez is also elite in terms of muting power against hitters from both sides. The Rangers probably won’t be a bad offense (.164 ISO, .318 wOBA vs. LHP in ’25), but they’re also not that imposing, and they struck out more than 25% of the time vs. LHP a season ago. Sanchez may get lost in the shuffle a bit on this slate from an ownership standpoint.
Freddy Peralta makes his Mets debut today against the Pirates. Fine? Peralta will occasionally get himself into trouble with walks, and he will yield some power. He does offer some strikeout stuff (28.3%). The Pirates upgraded their lineup a little this offseason, but I’d still stop short of saying they’re good. I’d just rather play Crochet, Brown, or Sanchez among the $9,000 options.
In terms of priority, here’s how I’ll rank the SP1s:
- Skubal
- Crochet
- Brown
- Sanchez
- Skenes
- Peralta
SP2 Targets for 3/26
- Jacob Misiorowski ($7,500, vs. CHW)
- Nick Pivetta ($8,200, vs. DET)
- Matthew Boyd ($7,300, vs. WAS)
- Andrew Abbott ($6,800, vs. BOS)
- Jose Soriano ($6,200, at HOU)
There are obviously more viable names you can target, but I don’t have all fuckin’ day, do I? We’re probably looking at a couple of chalky options in this tier – Misiorowski and Boyd.
The Miz was all the rage last season, until he wasn’t. His 32.4% strikeout rate was spectacular, but he also got himself into some hot water with his erratic control (10.4% walks) and short leashes. I’m not really any more concerned about Misiorowski’s leash than I am about anyone else’s in the first game of the season. The Brewers are always happy to use the pen, but he’s also just $7,500 and facing the White Sox at home.
The White Sox aren’t good, but…they’re also not that bad? Chicago doesn’t pack much of a punch (.151 ISO, .319 wOBA vs. RHP), but they’re also not going to strike out a ton, generally (19.5% vs. RHP). Misiorowski is a talented enough strikeout pitcher to rack up Ks against anybody, but the Sox are also somewhat patient (8.2% walks vs. RHP). There are certainly paths to failure here. Still, it’s hard to overlook the upside on that $7,500 salary, so I’m into him.
Matt Boyd ($7,300) draws the Nationals at home. Much like the Wizards, the Nats look like a team we’ll be targeting as a matchup all season. Boyd is pretty mediocre (21.4% Ks) relative to most of the other pitchers on this slate. It’s just that Washington is horrible, and the wind in Chicago is howling in from left field at around 20 mph. Washington’s projected lineup fared very poorly vs. LHP last season (.134 ISO, .302 wOBA, 25.6% Ks), and the weather will do these bats no favors. Boyd will catch some ownership, but the pitching slate is deep enough that he likely won’t be huge chalk or anything.
Nick Pivetta ($8,200) draws the Tigers at home. Pivetta is generally a boom/bust play, and this is a boom/bust spot. Detroit is a mediocre offense (.183 ISO, .329 wOBA, 24.4% Ks vs. RHP), this is a pitcher-friendly park, and Pivetta has some strikeout upside (26.9%). He’s also going to allow a ton of barrels and flyballs, which is, naturally, going to make him homer-prone. Homers are less of a problem in this ballpark. He’s okay.
Andrew Abbott ($6,800) is cheap and likely offers some leverage against what should be a popular Boston stack today. The issue is I think Abbott has been incredibly lucky in recent seasons, and the numbers suggest that regression will arrive at some point. He’s affordable, at least.
I’ll just briefly mention Jose Soriano because he’s so cheap at $6,200. He’s been a better strikeout arm against righties (23.1%), and Houston is still a very righty-heavy offense with limited power. Soriano also keeps the ball on the ground (57.4%) and limits power. Not a safe play, by any means, but there’s a path to success against a mid offense here.
- Boyd
- Misiorowski
- Pivetta
- Soriano
- Abbott
Primary Stacks
- Red Sox (at Abbott)
- Brewers (vs. Smith)
- White Sox (at Miz)
- Orioles (vs. Ryan)
- Twins (at Rogers)
There are no teams on this slate with implied run totals north of 5, as is usually the case this early in the season when the weather is cool in most places. Milwaukee and Houston top the board around 4.6, while Boston and Philadelphia are in the 4.4 range.
The Red Sox are my favorite of the bunch against the aforementioned Abbott, who’s due for regression. Abbott has an average split from the left side, and he’s a flyball pitcher. Righties barreled him up about 8.5% of the time a season ago. Ceddane Rafaela (14.2%), Willson Contreras (13.5%), Roman Anthony (13.5%), Wilyer Abreu (10.4%), and Carlos Narvaez (10.3%) posted double-digit barrel rates vs. LHP in ’25, while Jarren Duran (9.4%) and Trevor Story (8.5%) weren’t far off. Contreras, Story, Duran, and Anthony are the priorities, while I’m fine with Narvaez, Rafaela, and Caleb Durbin for savings. Perhaps the field’s reluctance to play hitters in lefty-lefty matchups will keep ownership on Anthony, Duren, and Abreu reasonably low.
Can’t say I’m excited to stack the Brewers, but they’ll face one of the slate’s weaker starters in Shane Smith, followed by a weak Chicago bullpen. Smith had some success against his fellow righties last season, but he’ll face 6 LHBs here. Christian Yelich, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, and Jake Bauers pack the most punch. Luis Rengifo and Andrew Vaughn are both just $3,000, while William Contreras helps you fill catcher. It’s fine.
The White Sox, on the other side of this game, provide some leverage on the Miz. It’s also worth noting the middle 4 bats in the Chicago order – Colson Montgomery, Miguel Vargas, Andrew Benintendi, and Austin Hays – all had barrel rates of at least 10% vs. RHP last year. This stack is also super cheap, with only Montgomery over $4,000. I like a Vargas-Montgomery-Benintendi mini-stack more than a full 5-man.
Both sides of the MIN-BAL game look attractive. Joe Ryan is excellent, but he had some issues limiting power (.207 ISO, 12.6% barrels) last season. That bodes very well for Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Sam Basallo, and Colto Cowser. While Ryan held RHBs to a .138 ISO, they still barreled him up more than 10% of the time. That’ll keep Taylor Ward, Pete Alonso, Coby Mayo, and Tyler O’Neill in play for full stacks. There’s some ownership here, but I expect them to come in behind both Boston and Milwaukee. The O’s look awesome to me.
The Twins draw one of the slate’s worst pitchers, Trevor Rogers. I am not really buying what he was selling last season, so I’ll get to Minnesota early and often for value. Byron Buxton ($5,700) won’t come cheap, but the rest of them will. Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, Luke Keaschall, and Josh Bell round out the stack.
Mini Stacks, One-offs, and Shit
- Phillies
- Astros
- Cardinals
- Rays
- Oneil Cruz
The Phillies don’t get an easy draw against Nate Eovaldi, but it is a capable lineup likely to fly under the radar. I like a lefty mini-stack of Schwarber/Harper/Stott. Honorable mention to Trea Turner and Adolis Garcia (revenge!).
The Astros have a high total, but they just kinda suck? Soriano is also a tough pitcher to stack against, though he will have some meltdown outings thanks to his wild control. I do love a Yordan Alvarez one-off if you don’t want to stack ’em, but I’m okay with Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Jeremy Pena, and Yainer Diaz. A full stack is viable.
St. Louis has the hottest weather on the day, I’m just not huge on these offenses. Nolan Gorman, Ivan Herrera, and Alec Burleson have enough power to make a pretty good mini-stack. Matt Liberatore will yield some right-handed power, which bodes well for Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz on the Tampa side.
I love Oneil Cruz as a one-off against Peralta.
Good luck!
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