The last Thursday of the MLB season gives us a split slate, but we’re here to discuss the 6-game evening docket. Note that this one gets underway a tick early at 6:40 PM ET, so try not to get stuck with a bunch of dead lineups by assuming things kick off around 7.
Anyway, this slate looks pretty tough, especially on the pitching side. We have one guy with a track record as an ace, and then a bunch of unknowns. That’ll make things pretty interesting from an ownership standpoint, as the field will generally put more confidence in what they think is a known commodity. That’s where exploitation comes in.
Anyway, let’s dive in.
SP1 – Carlos Rodon, Nolan McLean, Parker Messick
Just 6 games on the board means we’re dealing with quite the narrow pitching pool. Carlos Rodon is the aforementioned known commodity for a matchup at home against his old team, the White Sox. This game matters with the Yankees and Blue Jays currently tied atop the AL East, so I’d expect Rodon to get a full leash as long as things are going well.
Rodon’s 25.8% K-rate for the season looks solid, but he’s down to just 21% Ks over the last month. The dip in Ks has also come with a dip in walks, and it’s not like he’s allowing a ton of power, either. We generally prefer to target the Sox with lefties, as they’ve been much less potent in the power department (.132 ISO) vs. southpaws. They’re also not as patient against lefties, so I’m not scared of the spot. The issue is Rodon isn’t really a $10,800 pitcher on a normal slate, and he’s going to get a shitload of ownership thanks to the nature of the slate.
Nolan McLean has been a savior for the Mets, with a 27.4% K-rate and a 63% groundball rate thus far. His power prevention has been elite. The only blemish is sketchy control (8.5% walks). This is also an absolutely massive game for the Mets as they continue to cling to a Wild Card spot. The matchup against the Cubs is not particularly good, and McLean, like Rodon, won’t come cheap ($10,300). If he struggles early, it wouldn’t be too shocking to see the Mets yank him early in a game they really need to win. I think he’s a fine play by default, I’m just not that excited about the risk and salary.
I suppose we can call Parker Messick an SP1 on this slate at $8,800. This is another huge game with the Guardians leading the failing Tigers by a game in the standings. Messick has been solid, if unspectacular (21.8% Ks, 3.5% walks, 50% groundballs). I’m not sure that impeccable control is sustainable, though I do trust the groundballs. Detroit is a pretty average matchup, though we’re at least getting some savings here thanks to the $8,800 price point. It doesn’t feel good, but you’re not gonna feel good about your pitchers on this slate regardless.
In terms of personal preference, I’ll rank these guys Messick, McLean, Rodon.
SP2 – Mitch Farris, Emerson Hancock, Michael Lorenzen, Eric Lauer
The Mariners conclude their set against the Rockies tonight, so Emerson Hancock will pull some ownership. Let’s not forget this is Emerson Hancock, though, a man with a 15% strikeout rate and big power issues vs. lefties. The Rockies only have a couple of lefties, but there are serious leash concerns here. Hancock hasn’t thrown more than 33 pitches in a game since July 1. He’s been operating out of the bullpen. This is probably a long opener situation, and I’d be fairly surprised if he pitched more than 3 innings. If he’s significantly owned and on a very short leash, that’s a pretty damn good fade.
Mitch Farris is the latest create-a-player to take the mound for the Angels. He’s nota terrible prospect, and he showed solid strikeout stuff in the minors. His control is also shaky, and we’ve seen a little of both in a brief tenure in the majors (22.1% Ks, 10.5% walks). The Royals, while not a great offense, also don’t strike out a whole lot (20.8% vs. LHP). I like the salary ($6,200), and I assume he’ll draw a fraction of Hancock’s ownership. I don’t really think the range of outcomes is that dissimilar, which makes Farris a pretty good ownership play in spite of the tougher matchup.
Michael Lorenzen on the other side of the game gets the high-strikeout Angels (26.6% vs. RHP). Lorenzen is not a strikeouts guy (20.2%), and he’s had power issues vs. RHBs. The Angels have a ton of strikeouts with plenty of righty power, as well. Boom/bust spot, but Lorenzen is playable at $7,000.
Eric Lauer ($7,800) is expected to pitch in bulk relief for the Jays after Louis Varland opens vs. Boston. Lauer isn’t great, though we do generally prefer lefties against the Red Sox. I think he’s ok, but he’ll likely be my lowest-owned SP.
Primary Stacks – Yankees, Mariners, Royals, Angels
The Yankees and Mariners were pretty chalky yesterday, and they both paid us off. They’ll be even chalkier tonight on a smaller slate, but it’s hard to argue they shouldn’t be.
New York still has incentive to win, and they’ll face the hittable Davis Martin, who’s really struggled against lefties, in particular. Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, Ben Rice, Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Wells, Anthony Volpe, and Ryan McMahon all have double-digit barrel rates vs. RHP on the year, and the power here is immense. If you are fully stacking New York, just be cognizant of ownership. Leaving some salary on the table or pivoting from someone like Hancock to Farris makes sense, for example.
The M’s made quick work of Tanner Gordon last night, and they’ll face another nonsense guy in Bradley Blalock tonight. He’s allowed an overall .251 ISO with a .428 wOBA with a walk rate nearly as high as his strikeout rate. Seattle clinched the AL West yesterday, but they’re still fighting for a bye in the first round of the playoffs. I’d expect a full-strength lineup. Even a bunch of hungover Mariners can destroy Blalock – Cal Raleigh, Randy Arozarena, Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor, Dom Canzone…the usuals.
I mentioned Lorenzen’s power trouble vs. righties, and power righties are kinda the Angels’ whole deal. Pretty good leverage with guys like Jo Adell, Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, and Logan O’Hoppe.
While I like Farris as a Hancock pivot, he’s not exactly a safe play. Righty power – Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez, Maikel Garcia, Randal Grichuk – will stand out, but Ferris has allowed a 14% barrel rate to his fellow lefties, keeping Vinnie Pasquantino, Carter Jensen, Mike Yastrzemski, and Jac Caglianone in play for full KC stacks.
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