Welcome to Tuesday! The most vibeless day of the week. What’s notable about Tuesday? Not a damn thing, man.
Anyway, after a light 3-gamer on Monday, we’re looking at a beefy 11-game MLB DFS docket this evening. There’s also no football going on, so contests and prize pools around the sites look decent enough.
I never really know how to end these little intros. Uhh…let’s go!
SP1 – Logan Webb, Hurston Waldrep, Kevin Gausman, Shohei Ohtani, Cole Ragans
The slate has a lot of playable pitchers, and most of them are pretty cheap. The only true SP1 in terms of salary and skills on this slate is Logan Webb, and he also gets a matchup boost against the Cardinals at home. St. Louis did some damage against Justin Verlander last night, but Webb’s simply better in just about every area (26% Ks, 54.4% groundballs). While I wouldn’t expect a big strikeout spike for Webb here against St. Louis (19.1%), it’s also a low-power lineup (.132) he should be able to handle. As of now, I expect to be pretty heavily invested in Webb at $9,800 on DraftKings.
As has been the case on several recent slates, I’m also likely to be pretty in on Shohei Ohtani, who’s still only $8,000 on DK for a road matchup at Arizona. In his last start, he threw 5 no-hit innings on just 68 pitches before coming out of the game. The Dodgers have been somewhat consistent with his leash. He still hasn’t gotten up to 90 pitches, and they’ve been content to yank him after 5 innings even if he hasn’t reached 80. Ohtani has to be hyper-efficient as a result, but his skills (32.7% Ks, no barrels or walks) are elite across the board. I think the D-Backs are a neutral matchup overall, but $8,000 is still cheap. In spite of the pitch count question marks, I’ll take that discount.
Hurston Waldrep (24.6% Ks, 8.4% walks, 46.6% groundballs) continues to pile up good starts. I don’t think this is going to be a big strikeout pitcher in the long run, but he’s been consistent, and Washington is one of the league’s weakest offenses these days. We do prefer lefties vs. the Nats, but more of Waldrep’s Ks have come vs. LHBs (27%). $9,000 is a little on the high side, but I’ll probably be a little over the field on his limited ownership.
Kevin Gausman has had some big games, but he’s also a candidate to get destroyed every now and again. Boston’s lineup always profiles better vs. RHP (.185 ISO, .335 wOBA), and we’re getting no discount here at $9,300. The Red Sox are also still playing for something, so not a great spot. I may not fully fade him, but it’ll be close.
Cole Ragans faces the Angels in Anaheim. He’d probably be the chalkiest pitcher on the slate in a normal start, but he threw 62 pitches in his first outing in a few months last time out. I think we’re probably only looking at 75-80 pitches here at the most, which makes him similar to Ohtani, albeit for $800 more. The Angels strike out so goddamn much (26.9% vs. LHP) that Ragans can absolutely put up 20+ fantasy points even on a limit, which keep him in the player pool.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Logan Webb | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Shohei Ohtani | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Hurston Waldrep | ✅ | ✅ |
| 4. Cole Ragans | ✅ | ✅ |
| 5. Kevin Gausman | ❌ | ✅ |
SP2 – Patrick Corbin, Bryce Miller, Zebby Matthews, Randy Vasquez
You’re welcome to roll the dice on guys like Lucas Giolito, Cristian Javier, and Brandon Pfaadt in multi-entry because you are a human being with free will, but most of my exposure lies with those named in the H2.
Patrick Corbin has had a pretty successful season for the Rangers. The former gas can simply hasn’t been that, even if he’s occasionally struggled in tougher matchups. A 19.8% K-rate isn’t eye-popping, but he has done a pretty good job of limiting power. Minnesota has been pretty awful this season against lefties (.139 ISO, .293 wOBA, 22.4% Ks), and the $6,600 salary is helpful on this slate.
If any of these guys is chalk, I assume it’ll be Bryce Miller at home against Colorado. He’s kinda just an average pitcher with middling strikeouts and a high flyball rate, but you can get away with flyballs in Seattle. The Rockies are also such a nonsense offense (24.6% Ks vs. RHP) that even Miller might find his way into a few extra Ks. Miller’s strikeout rate against his fellow righties is up around 28% since his return from the IL, and the Rockies only have a couple of lefties in the projected order. Plus, he’s only $7,000. Miller isn’t ever comfortable chalk, but it does feel like a pretty good play here.
Zebby Matthews has a solid overall strikeout rate (25.1%), but he’s been in horrid form over the last month (16.3% Ks). Lefties continue to throttle him (.217 ISO, .385 wOBA). Texas only has 4 LHBs amid some injuries. It’s a watered-down enough lineup to give Zebby some bounce-back potential at what should be very low ownership. A pitcher with a track record of racking up strikeouts makes for a pretty good tournament play if he’s sub-10% owned.
Nobody’s going to play Randy Vasquez against the Brewers, and they’re probably right to not do that. A 13.7% strikeout rate barely higher than his walk and barrel rates is scary, and the top of Milwaukee’s lineup is pretty lefty-heavy. I’ll have a sprinkling of Vasquez in large-field stuff in the off chance he pays off his $6,200 price point.
| Pitcher | Single-Entry Viable? | Multi-Entry Viable? |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Bryce Miller | ✅ | ✅ |
| 2. Patrick Corbin | ✅ | ✅ |
| 3. Zebby Matthews | ❌ | ✅ |
| 4. Randy Vasquez/Brad Lord | ❌ | ✅ |
Primary Stacks – Mariners, Yankees, Royals, Angels, Astros
The Mariners win the lottery and get to face the Rockies’ dreadful pitching staff. Even if the game’s not in Colorado, I’m still happy to pick on the abysmal McCade Brown and the Rockies’ cavalry of woeful relievers. Brown’s walk rate is higher than hish strikeout rate. Even in a pitcher-friendly park, the Mariners have enough power to win the slate. I will simply play as much of Cal Raleigh as I can, followed by the other power bats – Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Eugenio Suarez, Josh Naylor.
The Yankees welcome Shane Smith and the White Sox to town. Smith has done solid work against righties, but lefties (.201 ISO, .329 wOBA) are another story. New York’s usual gang of lefties – Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger, Ben Rice, Jazz Chisholm – looks terrific, while I never care about splits when it comes to Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton.
Both sides of the KC/LAA game are interesting. The Royals draw Sam Aldegheri, a rookie lefty who’s been terrible in the majors and wasn’t much better at Triple-A. I suspect this team will garner some ownership, but I’m having a hard time not liking it – Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Carter Jensen, Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey, Salvador Perez. Ragans will get some ownership, so power-hunting with some of the Angels’ RHBs – Mike Trout, Jo Adell, Taylor Ward, Logan O’Hoppe, Christian Moore – is viable. Kinda prefer them as a mini-stack.
The Astros take on Jeffrey Springs in Sacramento. Springs just hasn’t been good this season, yielding quite a bit of power to RHBs. Houston’s lineup is almost entirely RH once again with Yordan Alvarez out – Jeremy Pena, Carlos Correa, Isaac Paredes, Jose Altuve, Christian Walker, Yainer Diaz.
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