Welp, we’re officially into the final week of the regular season. Time flies, they say. Most of the league is taking the day off, leaving us with a teeny lil 3-game slate kicking off at 7:15 PM ET. The Nationals will visit the Braves in an utterly meaningless early game, while the 2 west coast games have potential postseason implications.
Contests aren’t great out there today, but I’m still playing because I have approximately zero self control. Might as well break it down here, too.
SP1 – Chris Sale, Freddy Peralta
The aces on this slate would be the aces on just about any slate. Chris Sale stands out above everybody else, and he’s pretty clearly underpriced at $9,500 for a home date against Washington. He’s been just as elite this season (32% Ks, 6% walks) as he was last year when he won the NL Cy Young, and he’s been even better (37.5% Ks, 2.1% walks) since returning from a rib injury a few weeks ago.
The Braves aren’t playing for anything. You’d think they’d might take it easy on the workload of a 36-year-old string bean with a lengthy injury history, but he threw 106 pitches against these same Nationals in his last outing. He’s also a competitor, so I assume he wants to be out there on a normal leash even though Atlanta’s playoff hopes died years ago. I suppose there are some concerns they could limit him, but I’m not gonna tie myself into knots worrying about it on a 3-game slate, especially if we don’t hear anything to that effect pregame.
Anyway, Washington is also a stellar matchup for lefties, as evidenced by their wildly high 29.3% K-rate vs. LHP on the year. They’re also just not hitting for any power (.128 ISO, .282 wOBA), and their best hitters – CJ Abrams and James Wood – won’t have the platoon edge over Sale. Sale is going to be the single chalkiest player on the slate, but it is very good chalk.
Freddy Peralta gets a park bump going into San Diego, but his matchup isn’t as easy. The Padres are still fighting for a playoff spot, while the Brewers are trying to hold off the Phillies for the NL’s top postseason seed. I doubt they’ll limit his leash, either, but ya never know. Peralta’s terrific (28.1% Ks), albeit with more control risk than Sale has. The Padres are also a very high-contact bunch (17.7% Ks vs. RHP). While he’s a strong enough play, it’s just very clear that Sale has the easier path to a ceiling outing, and the $500 drop to Peralta isn’t that meaningful.
Both viable, but Sale >>> Peralta tonight.
SP2 – Michael McGreevy, Nick Pivetta, MacKenzie Gore, Justin Verlander
Every pitcher on the board is playable on such a small slate.
Salary considered, my favorite SP2 is going to be Justin Verlander ($6,700) at home against the Cardinals. While he isn’t what he used to be, Verlander has pitched very well over the past couple of months, even if his K-rate over the last 30 days is sitting at an average 22.6%. He’s a flyball pitcher with power risk, but that risk is muted in SF’s very pitcher-friendly ballpark.
The power risk is also muted by the matchup vs. St. Louis, a team barely hitting for more power (.141 ISO vs. RHP) than the Nationals. They’re not going to strike out a ton (19.9%), but it’s not like you need JV to get you 30 points at $6,700.
My least-favorite here is Nick Pivetta at $8,500 facing the Brewers at home. While he’s not a much worse strikeout pitcher than Peralta (26.6%), he is prone to yielding power (10.8% barrels). Milwaukee isn’t a particularly thunderous lineup, but they do make contact (18.7% Ks vs. RHP). I suppose he’s playable, I’d rather just find the extra $500 for Peralta or take the savings with Gore if I’m shopping in this aisle.
Michael McGreevy has not had much success in the strikeouts department (14.9%), but he does keep the ball on the ground pretty well (47.2%), particularly against his fellow righties (57%). The Giants can throw 5-6 lefties at him, but San Francisco is pitcher-friendly. Verlander’s the better play, but he’ll also attract more ownership. McGreevy is more of a leftover than anything else, but in the pool for multi-entry as the cheapest SP on the board ($6,000).
MacKenzie Gore has solid numbers for the year (27.2% Ks), but he’s really struggled over the last month (19.4% Ks, 11.3% walks, 9.3% barrels). He’s still getting 90+ pitches in most outings, and he shut down this very same Atlanta offense just last week. The Braves are a pretty neutral matchup overall, but I like the discount ($7,700) and Gore’s ceiling. It’s been a while since we’ve seen that ceiling, but we can’t get too picky on a slate with 6 pitchers.
Primary Stacks – Giants, Braves, Cardinals
You’re probably not gonna like your stack tonight, and that’s okay, because we’re all playing with the same pool. As of now, I assume the Giants will be the closest thing to chalk, as they’re facing the slate’s weakest pitcher, Michael McGreevy.
As mentioned, he’s done a fine job of keeping the ball on the ground against RHBs, but LHBs (.372 wOBA, .186 ISO) have given him trouble. Rafael Devers is really the only lefty you’re excited to play, but Bryce Eldridge is a large child with legitimate power. Jung Hoo Lee, Drew Gilbert, and Patrick Bailey would be next in that order in terms of priority, but I’m very into the power-hitting RHBs (Chapman, Adames, Ramos) considering McGreevy just doesn’t miss bats.
The Cardinals are about as uninteresting as it gets offensively, but we saw early in the year that Verlander can be prone to disaster outings. We haven’t seen one in a bit, but hey. Alec Burleson is St. Louis’ most prolific power hitter, followed by Nolan Gorman, Lars Nootbaar, and Ivan Herrera.
I mentioned Gore’s poor form over the last month. He’s historically a lefty with reverse splits, so I love the spot for Matt Olson and Michael Harris, as lefties are almost always under-owned against left-handed pitchers regardless of the pitcher’s splits. Righties still have a healthy 10% barrel rate against him over the last month, so fire up Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, and Jurickson Profar.
Secondary Stacks – Everybody Else
I’ll have pretty significant exposure to every stack on the slate. On a tiny 3-gamer, direct leverage is a viable plan of attack in GPPs. While it’s unlikely the Nationals destroy Chris Sale, you’re likely to soar past 70% of the field if you stack ’em in the off chance they do get to him. Remember, you’re playing for first place. I’m still starting with CJ Abrams and James Wood even against the tough lefty, followed by Dylan Crews, Andres Chaparro, and Riley Adams.
The Padres and Brewers are both facing excellent pitchers themselves, so the bats should be relatively low-owned. Both pitchers have had slightly more power issues with right-handed bats – Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ramon Laureano, Jackson Chourio, William Contreras, and Andrew Vaughn look like first stops in stacks. Jackson Merrill is also red-hot after a sluggish start to 2025.
I will also note that because we only have 6 teams on the slate, the chances of one of them going berserk for a slate-breaking score are inherently lower. Most of my lineups will still be 4/5-man stacks with the hope that one team does put up a crooked enough number to win the slate, but playing weird lineups with smaller and/or no stacks is more viable on a slate like this.
Good luck!
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