Happy Tuesday! I’m wildly late getting to this today, so no time for shenanigans. We’re looking at a full 12-game slate on tap for DraftKings, while FanDuel is trotting out an 11-gamer that excludes Game 2 of the Brewers-Cubs double-dip.
Anyway, let’s pick some winners. Can’t be worse than last night’s slate, right?…right!?
SP1 – Joe Ryan, Nick Pivetta, Hunter Greene
We’ve got a couple of guys – Carlos Rodon and Brandon Woodruff – priced up over $10,000 on DK, but I don’t see much need to go there. Woodruff has some pitch count uncertainty after throwing just 65 pitches in the last game, and I’d rather not play Russian Roulette with the most expensive pitcher on the slate on a potential pitch count. Rodon, while good, gets a park downgrade going into Tampa Bay, and the pitchers priced just below him have similar – if not better – overall numbers.
The chalk SP1 is going to be Hunter Greene in Anaheim. He’s underpriced for his skills at $9,000 on DK, and the Angels strike out a lot (25.8%) against righties. Greene threw 85 pitches in his first start off the IL in the last game, so I’m trusting we get a fairly full leash of 90-100 pitches if things go well. Even if he winds up at 85 again, I’ll gladly take it given the discount we’re getting with him.
Joe Ryan is at home against the A’s. Lots of power in this lineup, but Ryan’s still piling up the strikeouts, especially against RHBs (33.2%). The A’s aren’t putting out their highest-K lineup with guys like Darell Hernaiz and Luis Urias in there, so I’ll probably play both sides of this one with some of the Athletics’ power lefties.
Nick Pivetta ($9,500) gets the Giants at home. He’s been pretty stable with the strikeouts against hitters from both sides, and San Francisco has some Ks in the lineup (23.1%) vs. RHP. If I can find enough cheap bats to simply pair 2 of the expensive pitchers, I’m happy to do it. If not, there are some cheapies we can look at.
SP2 – Emmet Sheehan, Tanner Bibee, Jacob Lopez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shane Baz
Emmet Sheehan gets the big park downgrade going into Coors, but he’s also just $6,700 and offers some strikeout upside against a righty-heavy Colorado offense. Sheehan’s up to 25.3% Ks vs. RHB, and the only left in the Rockies’ projected order is Mickey Moniak. There are control concerns in general – plus the Coors factor – but I’m fine with taking some shots on a talented pitcher who’s just underpriced for his talent against a poor offense.
Bibee and E-Rod square off against one another, and both are priced in the mid-$7,000s on DK. We’ve been targeting the Guardians with lefties all year given their horrific numbers (.155 ISO, .293 wOBA, 23.8% Ks). Rodriguez hasn’t been at all consistent – and he’s allowing a lot of power – but the power risk is pretty minimal once you get past guys like Jose Ramirez and David Fry.
Bibee’s strikeouts are pushing 24% over the apst 30 days, and Arizona is a pretty decent strikeout matchup these days (24% vs. RHP). They are still hitting for power, and Bibee’s been a little susceptible to lefties, but again, a $7,500 salary comes in handy on a slate with some expensive stuff worth paying for.
Lopez (28% Ks) seems to be pretty legit, albeit with some control and power issues against righties. The Twins do have some righty power to throw at him, so it’s not a perfect spot, but $8,200 is a reasonable price tag for a guy with some real strikeout upside. I like hunting for power with some Minnesota bats against him, but Lopez is still on my radar in his own right.
Shane Baz ($7,700) has been consistently inconsistent, but the strikeout rate is pushing 29% over the past month. There’s always power risk when you’re facing the Yankees, but New York will do some whiffing (24.2%) against righties. I like the idea of shooting for upside with Baz in tournaments, especially if the field is too scared to deploy him.
You can punt with guys like Bryce Elder, Walker Buehler, and Kai-Wei Teng if you’re brave, but I’d say that’s more of a large-field, multi-entry sort of thing to do.
Primary Stacks – Dodgers, Rockies, Orioles, Yankees, White Sox
The Dodgers are in Coors again, and the lineup will look better tonight with Will Smith presumably back in it. I’m more confident in targeting Austin Gomber than Kyle Freeland, especially if the lineup has more depth. I never care about handedness when it comes to Shohei Ohtani – even at a wildly expensive salary – while Gomber’s numbers against lefties are poor enough to still make Freddie Freeman viable. In general I prefer the righties beyond Ohtani – Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, and Andy Pages.
The Colorado side is also in play against Sheehan, and I’ll be playing both sides of this equation, too. Moniak is the top guy given Sheehan’s overall weaker numbers vs. LHBs, while I’d otherwise stick with the good RHBs – Tovar, Goodman, Beck, and a cheap Ryan Ritter.
The Orioles should be a popular value stack against Buehler at Fenway, as playing them makes it easier to get to the Dodgers you’d want. Dylan Beavers is probably my favorite value hitter on the entire slate, while I’m happy to fire up the more expensive Gunnar Henderson and Jackson Holliday in full BAL stacks. Buehler’s numbers against hitters from both sides are incredibly pedestrian.
Baz has a nasty habit of getting blown up, so the Yankees with all of their thunder look pretty good here, too. Baz’s 14% barrel rate to righties bodes well for Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, while the park in Tampa – like Yankee Stadium – favors lefty power – Rice, Grisham, Bellinger, Jazz.
I’m into the White Sox once again with the woeful Bryce Elder on the hill for Atlanta. Most importantly, they’re also affordable across the board. Elder’s slightly worse against lefties – putting Tauchman, Teel/Quero and Benintendi atop the list, while I’m always into Miguel Vargas and Lenyn Sosa in full stacks.
Secondary Stacks – Twins, A’s, Rangers
Both sides of the MIN/ATH game have power potential.
The Twins’ righties – Buxton, Lewis, Jeffers, Martin, Keaschall – would be the priorities. We prefer lefty power against Ryan, so I’ll look at a nice Kurtz/Soderstrom/Butler mini-stack.
The Rangers’ lefties are gonna look decent against Seth Lugo, who’s completely fallen apart over the last month. I still love Wyatt Langford from the right side – even as a one-off, but the big gets are the LHBs – Seager, Smith, Joc, Rowdy, Carter.
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