It’s Saturday, so we’ve got a couple of different slates. The early one already started, so there’s that. The main docket features 7 games, and the hitting chalk looks eerily similar to last night’s hitting chalk.
That slate was a profitable one, so we might as well run it back and win money again tonight, right? Let’s dive in.
SP1
- Bryan Woo ($9,500, vs. CLE)
- Tyler Glasnow ($8,900, vs. AZ)
- Jack Flaherty ($8,500, at SD)
That’s it. That’s the list. Bryan Woo ($9,500) is the only pitcher north of $9,000 on DK, and he gets a nice matchup at home against the Guardians. Woo is a lot like last night’s starter, George Kirby. The Ks are solid (26.7%), his control is elite, and he’s taking the mound in arguably the best pitcher’s park in baseball. Cleveland’s projected lineup only had a 20.7% K-rate vs. RHP last season, but, as mentioned yesterday, that’s deceiving. The only true low-strikeout bats are Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Brayan Rocchio. Everyone else whiffed at least 25% of the time.
Woo is the SP1 overall, and he’ll be owned accordingly. As of this writing, I have him in about half of my lineups, and he could come in with even more ownership than that.
Tyler Glasnow ($8,900) and Jack Flaherty ($8,500) aren’t even expensive, either. Both right-handers posted strikeout percentages in the upper-20s last season, while walks can occasionally be an issue for both, as well. The issue is their foes, the Diamondbacks and Padres, are low-strikeout offenses. Arizona has a bit more power than San Diego, and Dodger Stadium is a far friendlier hitter’s park than Petco. That’s enough to tip the scales in Flaherty’s favor over Glasnow for me, though I rate them both well behind Woo in terms of priority.
SP1 Rankings
- Woo
- Flaherty
- Glasnow
SP2
- Chad Patrick ($7,700, vs. CHW)
- Cristian Javier ($7,600, vs. LAA)
- Will Warren ($7,200, at SF)
- Reynaldo López ($7,000, vs. KC)
- Joey Cantillo ($7,300, at SEA)
There’s a big gaggle of SP2 plays between $7,000 and $8,000. The chalk of this tier is presumably Chad Patrick, who gets the home matchup with the White Sox. Patrick had a solid rookie go-round in ’25, with a K-rate of nearly 26% and better overall numbers against righties. Walks (9.2%) and barrels (10.4%) were issues against lefties, of which he’ll face 5 in Chicago’s lineup.
The Sox don’t hit for a ton of power, and they’re not good overall, but they do have some capable bats in there, and it’s not a high-K bunch (20.6%). Because pitching kinda sucks on this slate, I think Patrick is a solid play at the $7,700 salary, even at ownership.
Cristian Javier gets the Angels at home. LAA isn’t a total doormat, especially with Mike Trout looking a whole lot like Mike Trout. It’s also been like 4 years since Javier was an above-average strikeout pitcher. He posted a middling 21.7% strikeout rate last year, though there are a lot of Ks in this Halos lineup (26.2% vs. RHP). They also have a lot of power. I don’t think Javier is an amazing play by any means, but he will come at a fraction of Patrick’s ownership for $100 less.
Will Warren will toe the rubber in San Francisco for the Yanks against a Giants team still looking for its first run of the season. Warren will allow a lot of hard contact, but the risk is muted a bit by the pitcher-friendly ballpark. Warren’s strikeouts were up to 28.9% against righties last year, while he was subpar vs. LHBs (19.7%). He also had a walk rate pushing 12% vs. LHBs.
San Francisco only has 4 lefties to throw at him, but they are a very patient offense (9.7% walks vs. RHP). All things considered, I think Warren is a totally fine play at $7,200.
Reynaldo Lopez and Joey Cantillo are really the only other pitchers on my radar. Lopez is coming off an injury, and there’s some uncertainty, but he was very impressive in 2024. Kansas City (16.8%) is an extremely low-K offense, however. Cantillo (26.8%) was a good source of Ks last year, particularly against righties (28.5%), which is unusual for a southpaw. The Mariners will hit for a lot of power (.214 ISO, .350 wOBA), but there are also some strikeouts here (23%). I have moderate interest.
SP2 Rankings
- Patrick
- Warren
- Javier
- Cantillo
- Lopez
Primary Stacks
- Diamondbacks
- Tigers
- Dodgers
The Diamondbacks are really leaping off the page tonight, and they’re going to be very low-owned against the chalky Glasnow. This is not a particularly high-percentage stack considering Glasnow is pretty good, but the field is likely overrating him. Arizona looks like the best play on the slate, and it isn’t all that close.
Glasnow is neutral from a splits standpoint, but I’m certainly starting with the lefties – Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo, and Pavin Smith. Alek Thomas and Carlos Santana are nice values toward the bottom of the lineup. Gabriel Moreno, Nolan Arenado, and a min-priced Jordan Lawlar are viable in full stacks from the right side. In baseball’s best home-run ballpark, give me all of the DBax at this extremely low ownership.
The Dodgers and Astros are projecting for ownership, as was the case last night. There isn’t much of a case against the Dodgers, who’ll face lefty Eduardo Rodriguez. E-Rod has always had a reverse split from the left side, while Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Tucker have never had trouble hitting left-handed pitching. Freddie Freeman is just behind them, while fire up Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Teoscar Hernandez, and the others as needed.
I’m not all that interested in Houston into ownership, but I do like the Tigers, even in a pitcher-friendly park. Randy Vasquez is horrible, and he got wildly lucky last season. Vasquez’s numbers are ghastly. He won’t strike anyone out, and lefties should tee off against him. Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Riley Greene, and Kevin McGonigle are the headliners with the platoon advantage. Fill in Dillon Dingler and Spencer Torkelson.
Secondary Stacks
- Angels
- White Sox
- Braves
- Astros
- Yankees
Houston faces another lefty in Reid Detmers. The Angels seem to think Detmers sucks, but I do not agree. They’ll throw a lot of RHBs at him, but Detmers has pretty staunch reverse splits. Love that for Yordan Alvarez, don’t love that for anyone else. I’m inclined to let the field try the Astros again.
I’m back on the Angels, of course. The power RHBs – Trout, Neto, Soler, O’Hoppe, Adell – continue to stand out, while Josh Lowe and Nolan Schanuel make sense in full stacks from the left side.
The White Sox are great leverage on Patrick, with the lefties looking particularly stellar – Colson Montgomery, Munetaka Murakami, and Andrew Benintendi is a good 3-man stack.
Michael Wacha isn’t bad, but you can always make a case to target Atlanta’s power bats – Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies.
The Yankees are on the slate. San Francisco is such a poor hitter’s park that I’m not playing them much, but this team is always viable thanks to the thunder in the lineup.
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